ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

What weather should we expect in South Florida?

For SE FL not much other than continuing very warm and humid wx with possible pop up showers today and tomorrow, just have to watch if the forecasted squall line that will be affecting central Fl makes it to your area but so far is not forecasted.

[Weatherboy1]

I said it yesterday and think it still holds today: My semi-educated guess is that this will hit well East/South of what was originally forecast. Outside chance it landfalls on peninsula vs panhandle. Moreover, NHC has shifted “uncertain” (in their words) motion from 20 degrees yesterday midday to 40 degrees yesterday evening to 55 degrees in last update. We’re really talking more ENE motion than NE at this point. Wouldn’t be surprised if warnings extended southward at 5 if heading more to
The N doesn’t start very soon

[NDG]

Not sure if at h70 they will find a well defined circulation.

[nativefloridian]

What weather should we expect in South Florida?

For SE FL not much other than continuing very warm and humid wx with possible pop up showers today and tomorrow, just have to watch if the forecasted squall line that will be affecting central Fl makes it to your area but so far is not forecasted.

We could use a cool off here in SE FL. A little envious of those further north talking about temps in the 50's & 60's while we swelter here with upper 80's to low 90's. Oh well....maybe whatever this system is will bring us some more rain?

[TallyTracker]

Any circulation appears to be broad and located west of the convection. That would make it hard for the system to strengthen. Lots of shear to contend with. No convergence toward any center. Those northerly winds west of the low are behind the cold front, which is very near the low. This is more of a frontal low than a TC.

http://wxman57.com/images/16b.JPG

I agree with this assessment. The broad swirl is clearly shown on visible imagery. No matter how impressive the convection, the lower level circulation is poorly defined.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure if at h70 they will find a well defined circulation.

not likely. a mid level circ displaced is quite possible. but the low levle circ is still quite evident from surface obs and satellite.

[NDG]

Nice gravity waves with the deep convection, wow!

[northjaxpro]

Nice gravity waves with the deep convection, wow!

https://i.imgur.com/jFBQX5r.gif

That is one cool and unique satellite image!!

[Jr0d]

I just woke up. Not sure if the 60mph wind are lack of a name is more surprising.

[NDG]

In case any one wondering why is this system currently tropical.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1185218394330730504

[TallyTracker]

I see two swirls within the broad circulation. One is well southwest of the convection and is very weak. The other is tucked just under the main convection and appears to be becoming the dominant circulation. When that tightens up a little more, I expect the NHC will upgrade the system.

[psyclone]

It's a subtropical blob. Who cares where the center is the blob is it as far as sensible wx is concerned. the blob is blasting right toward northern and central peninsular Florida. Blob warnings should be in place from Englewood up to the big bend. Gusty winds, elevated tides, hostile seas, squally heavy showers and thunderstorms along with some severe risk (waterspouts/tornadoes) are on the weather menu. I am looking forward to greeting the blob.

[Aric Dunn]

man, if there is a LLC under that MLC that recon is finding that is much farther ene than where should be.. it would have to head nne to make the landfall forecast.

[psyclone]

BTW convection developing east of the main blob is getting zestier and quickly closing in on Florida. weather is going to go downhill rather quickly later today

[HurricaneRyan]

Is Josephine '96 a good analog for this? Similar time of year plus landfall set-up.

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the recon FL winds are off from the surface by a good deal. drop sondes all showing S to Se winds at the surface where FL at 10k feet are showing ssw. giving the appearance something is farther to the ENE>

center is still well south of guidance and passing south of that bouy.

[NDG]

No surprise that the recon found the h70 CoC further north than where the surface CoC is.

[Aric Dunn]

FYI.. new AF plane is now en route.. hopefully we get a good center fix now.

[Aric Dunn]

No surprise that the recon found the h70 CoC further north than where the surface CoC is.

yeah, with the shear at that level... also no sign of pressure drops up that way so no reformation occurring. center still south.