ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Heavy TPW air converging over Houston.
Expect a massive rain dump.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1173937676178862080

[wxman22]

98L really does look like a Depression going by radar imagery alone, I wonder if it could develop today before moving inland late tonight.

[GCANE]

Possible surface low analyzed at 27.8N 96.1W.
Closed vorts are tilted to the SE with altitude where there is deeper convection.
Surface low could slide to the south if convection persists.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone forming to the east.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near the central Texas coast
has changed little in organization. However, some slight development
is still possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast later tonight or early Wednesday. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce areas of
very heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along the coastal
regions of southwestern Louisiana and central and upper Texas
tonight and Wednesday, and over eastern Texas and western Louisiana
on Thursday. For additional information, see products issued by your
local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[SconnieCane]

Heavy TPW air converging over Houston.
Expect a massive rain dump.


https://i.imgur.com/XY6Nvko.png

https://i.imgur.com/XIs3VvH.png

Mini-Harvey?

That system would have done the same thing regardless of whether or not it became a Cat. 4 hurricane before landfall.

[setxweathergal64]

It is certainly raining pretty good in Beaumont!

[Storm Battered]

Mini-Harvey?

That system would have done the same thing regardless of whether or not it became a Cat. 4 hurricane before landfall.

But didn’t Harvey produce a ton of rain inland as it moved towards Houston? The rivers and bayous were inundated and that helped contribute to all the flooding besides the rainfall. This is coming directly in from the Gulf. Maybe more like a Mini-Allison, if that?

[GCANE]

Mini-Harvey?

That system would have done the same thing regardless of whether or not it became a Cat. 4 hurricane before landfall.

But didn’t Harvey produce a ton of rain inland as it moved towards Houston? The rivers and bayous were inundated and that helped contribute to all the flooding besides the rainfall. This is coming directly in from the Gulf. Maybe more like a Mini-Allison, if that?

If I remember correctly it was a stalled feeder band that sat over Houston for over 24 hrs.
The deeper the TC's pressure, the more TPW air gets entrained. If's it over land, that means more rain dump.

[txag2005]

Heavy TPW air converging over Houston.
Expect a massive rain dump.


https://i.imgur.com/XY6Nvko.png

https://i.imgur.com/XIs3VvH.png

Mini-Harvey?

That system would have done the same thing regardless of whether or not it became a Cat. 4 hurricane before landfall.

God I hope not.

[Garnetcat5]

Texas Storm Chasers is the only site that used the word catastrophic flooding. Otherwise it seems to be business as usual in Houston. After Harvey trust level is zero in getting a true idea of the rain totals expected.

[bohaiboy]

On my way to work in Houston this morning, the streets were wet but not bad. Did not require an umbrella on walk to office from car park. Ceiling was low as I am on the 36th floor and we were in the clouds. Went thru Harvey living in north Houston (Spring) and my weather station recorded 26". Three houses across street flooded.

The key thing in Houston is that there are neighborhoods that flood (Meyerland) with far less rain than Harvey produced, so this really could be a flooding event, albeit not to the extremes of Harvey (Certainly hope not)

[jasons2k]

After Harvey trust level is zero in getting a true idea of the rain totals expected.

That’s not true at all. Unprecedented rainfall totals were modeled well before Harvey and the message got out. We were warned.

The Mets were also saying ‘do not focus on any one model or particular bullseye shown on them as the exact amounts and locations are hard to pinpoint...the takeaway is that there will be widespread flooding rainfall with isolated higher amounts.’

Much like they are saying now but not as bad.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Nothing of great significance has been done in this city to try and prevent these events. I know they widened a couple of the bayous but 20"+ and the situation will be very similar to past events.

[Senobia]

On my way to work in Houston this morning, the streets were wet but not bad. Did not require an umbrella on walk to office from car park. Ceiling was low as I am on the 36th floor and we were in the clouds. Went thru Harvey living in north Houston (Spring) and my weather station recorded 26". Three houses across street flooded.

The key thing in Houston is that there are neighborhoods that flood (Meyerland) with far less rain than Harvey produced, so this really could be a flooding event, albeit not to the extremes of Harvey (Certainly hope not)

Harvey dumped 60 inches of rain in the Port Arthur area.

[StormLogic]

Here in Beaumont Raining sideways.... already 1.5"+ since this morning, 2"+ in isolated areas, HEAVY downpour on the way to work.

[GCANE]

4500 CAPE air on the east side, will work its way in and help to keep convection firing.

[GCANE]

A couple towers in the middle of that circulation.

[StormLogic]

this is really starting to blow up