ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

HRRR showing convection firing around 22Z tonight Panama City Tallahassee area.

[MississippiWx]

The GFS keeps the system too far north, and it interacts with land before finally moving southwest out over open water south of Central Louisiana. By then, it only has a day or so over water to organize. The old GFS is more in line with the other models-- just a bit farther east.

[MississippiWx]

The 12z UKMET has 92L intensifying rapidly to 974mb before going inland near Grand Isle, Louisiana. It is a bit concerning that most models (outside of the GFS), show this intensifying quickly at some point. It's hard to believe individual depictions of intensity, but the important thing to take away is that the environment is going to be ripe. If it makes it all the way to Texas, look out.

[plasticup]

The 12z UKMET has 92L intensifying rapidly to 974mb before going inland near Grand Isle, Louisiana. It is a bit concerning that most models (outside of the GFS), show this intensifying quickly at some point. It's hard to believe individual depictions of intensity, but the important thing to take away is that the environment is going to be ripe. If it makes it all the way to Texas, look out.

Yep, only a small shift south and this thing will have enough time to spin into a monster. The GoM is hot and ready.

Will be really interesting to see what the models do with the recon data we'll have in the next 12 hours.

[NDG]

The mid or upper level vorticity appears to be centered further east from that little low level spin on the Mississippi/Alabama border. Could mean some SW/NE eccentricity if the low level spin hits the water near Pensacola first.

I disagree, the spin over the MS/AL border is clearly a small upper level low, nothing will come out of this.
The low to the mid level vorticity is over GA right over the surface trough clearly seen on surface observations.

The 10 meter surface winds are rotating back NE at the MS/AL border so its not an upper low.
Might be just a temporary elongation of the circulation which will dissipate.
If it persists and convection blooms off Pensacola it could gain dominance, its definitely not dominant from the water vapor imagery now.

I still disagree, clearly the strongest surface vorticity is over GA, also the lowest surface pressure.

[NDG]

GFS is still persistent that it will not have the best UL environment as it tracks across the GOM, with light to moderate northerly shear as it forecasts the UL anticyclone to the north & west of the surface circulation.
GFS Sounding forecast shows a very tilted N-S storm because of northerly shear.

[GCANE]

Can see the circulation over mid GA on this IR loop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Clouds are building, evidence of good uplift.
CAPE is 3500 in the center of the circulation.
Could see some popups.

[MississippiWx]

GFS is still persistent that it will not have the best UL environment as it tracks across the GOM, with light to moderate northerly shear as it forecasts the UL anticyclone to the north & west of the surface circulation.
GFS Sounding forecast shows a very tilted N-S storm because of northerly shear.

https://i.imgur.com/P3hOrqJ.png

The main issue is that the GFS develops a lobe on the northern end of the trough and begins the development process north of the mid-level Vort. The Euro develops the southern end and begins deepening the system more quickly due to better initial alignment. Levi Cowan just made a post about this very topic on twitter, and it is very informative.

[NDG]

Can see the circulation over mid GA on this IR loop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Clouds are building, evidence of good uplift.
CAPE is 3500 in the center of the circulation.
Could see some popups.

Yes, very clearly seen also on hr visible loop.

[NDG]

GFS is still persistent that it will not have the best UL environment as it tracks across the GOM, with light to moderate northerly shear as it forecasts the UL anticyclone to the north & west of the surface circulation.
GFS Sounding forecast shows a very tilted N-S storm because of northerly shear.

https://i.imgur.com/P3hOrqJ.png

The main issue is that the GFS develops a lobe on the northern end of the trough and begins the development process north of the mid-level Vort. The Euro develops the southern end and begins deepening the system more quickly due to better initial alignment. Levi Cowan just made a post about this very topic on twitter, and it is very informative.

Yes I lean towards the Euro also, there is no way it will have that much shear as the GFS shows. The northern GOM right now has the best UL conditions in the Atlantic Basin.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The 12z UKMET has 92L intensifying rapidly to 974mb before going inland near Grand Isle, Louisiana. It is a bit concerning that most models (outside of the GFS), show this intensifying quickly at some point. It's hard to believe individual depictions of intensity, but the important thing to take away is that the environment is going to be ripe. If it makes it all the way to Texas, look out.

Looks like the GFS is showing the stable air mass to the north being entrained into the circulation, plus a bit of shear as well. Usually, that's what keeps the lid on storms in the GOMEX (like Isaac in 2012).

[Kazmit]

I must say... Barry is not the most threatening name. It looks like it may need to be taken seriously though.

[Aric Dunn]

Can see the circulation over mid GA on this IR loop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Clouds are building, evidence of good uplift.
CAPE is 3500 in the center of the circulation.
Could see some popups.

Yes, very clearly seen also on hr visible loop.

https://i.imgur.com/eM8wSbT.gif

It almost certainly will jump to the coast overnight as convection builds offshore.

[cycloneye]

30% / 80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast
to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a
broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday.
Environmental and ocean conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the low moves slowly westward over northern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[mcheer23]

30% / 80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast
to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a
broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday.
Environmental and ocean conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the low moves slowly westward over northern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

I thought they'd go 20. Interesting. By the next TWO we should be in Medium for 2 days and High for 5 days

[GCANE]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081446
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 08 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JULY 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE INVEST NEAR 28.0N 85.5W AT 10/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE P-3 TDR MISSION AT 11/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

NNNN

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I must say... Barry is not the most threatening name. It looks like it may need to be taken seriously though.

For some reason storms named Barry always comes close or delevops near to Tampa bay area

Never a threat, just a windy soggy menace that adds to the misery of mosquito's, annoying ethnic music and unbearable heat.

He last came around in 2007 and 2001. Roughly same distance this one is

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1148287388365406208

[psyclone]

From a weather nerd perspective this should be such a fascinating system to watch develop...in an observation rich environment and probably within radar range the whole time.

[GCANE]

Popups starting to fire off now around the center of circulation.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir