ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Afternoon popups firing off on the west coast of the Yucatan.
Should feed some moiture into it.
I like how the anti-cyclone is developing over it.

[lrak]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/fknuyk9cqgthb2b/p120i.gif?dl=0 WPC keeps increasing rain chances North towards Texas. I wonder if it will stay offshore for a while? First time to use dropbox from a suggestion is it working LOL

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1134940149882773504

[Condor]

Anybody have satellite images? Google has failed me.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[cycloneye]

8 PM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the
coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[hurricanehunter69]

91L looks to be on the move....thus I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a tropical system. But never under estimate the BOC. I'm thinking a 25% chance of development before reaching the beach.....MGC

So you're in the "development chances will decrease" on the next advisory camp...? I'll roll with an increase in development probability ( 70% ).

[lrak]

The last visible satellite is concerning to me. Will have to wait

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1134981155160305664

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track position is more west than WNW in the past 6 hours meaning less time on water.

Location: 19.7°N 94.9°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[AnnularCane]

Didn't the 2007 season start off with Barry too? I might be feeling a bit of deja vu here (even though that was on the other side of the Gulf).

2013 also had Barry in the BoC in June.

Oh yes, I forgot about that! Funny how there are a few storms that shared similar characteristics to others of the same names. Will this be another one?

[CyclonicFury]

What's interesting is the models don't really show this organizing until late tomorrow or early Monday. Wonder if the current circulation over the BOC will dissipate and a new one will develop.

[GCANE]

Very nice organization overnight.
Both LL Vort and UL Anticyclone.
Poleward outflow looks really good,

[GCANE]

BoC Buoy showing gradual drop in surface pressure.

[GCANE]

A couple high-helicity towers fired off about an hour ago.
The moisture infeed from yesterday's popups likely contributed.

[cycloneye]

So the low they were tracking at 00z best track at 19.7N-94.9W is not the one?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has
changed little in organization since yesterday. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico,
and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a
day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico
during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[TexasF6]

It looks like a new center is reforming more north and east a bit. The old one looks weak at the moment...Just my two shillingsworth!
















The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Aric Dunn]

Morning visible showing banding and very likely a well developed surface circ. Dead center in the BOC and slightly farther north away from coast. Which should give it plenty of time and.space.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1135168183915208705

[GCANE]

Lots of overshooting tops around 21.5N 93.5W building a good cirrus layer.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis