ATL: BARRY - Models

[Steve]

Wharfy at 90

[Steve]

HMON with the slightly west of Katrina track with very limited storms on the front left side.

[floridasun78]

HMON with the slightly west of Katrina track with very limited storms on the front left side.
http://i67.tinypic.com/2jcy7at.jpg

those hmon and HWRF look like what we see in aug and sep not july hurr or like hurricane michael

[Siker]

That HWRF is pretty dang similar to the 12z UKMET. Reinforces that more time over water / further west = possible higher intensity.

[sphelps8681]

What is the difference between euro/gfs and hwrf/hmon models.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

"Legacy" GFS shows ~976mb.

[toad strangler]

The HWRF is laughably always over done IMO

[Frank P]

"Legacy" GFS shows ~976mb.

HMON has a track very similar to the legacy GFS but not quite as strong with a 989 mb pressure albeit just a tad east as well!

[MississippiWx]

"Legacy" GFS shows ~976mb.

Yeah, it takes a path very similar to the HMON. Probably a little too far to the east.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1148740950975381505

[cycloneye]

[MississippiWx]

This track situation is a doozy and far from set in stone. The 18z Euro just came in close to where the HWRF makes landfall, and thus stronger.

[PTrackerLA]

I dont think I can share an image but the 18z Euro (out to 90 hrs only) shifted well to the west with a NNW heading about 100 or so miles south of Pecan Island, LA. Are the shorter intermediate runs of the Euro less reliable? First year I've seen this product.

[northjaxpro]

The HWRF is laughably always over done IMO

HWRF nailed Hurricane Danny in 2015, which underwent rapid intensification into a major hurricane in the Tropical Atlant:ic . It was the only model which had it as a major hurricane.

Don't be so hard on that model....

[Ivanhater]

TVCN and model cluster is near NOLA with a NE curve...interesting change

[Frank P]

This track situation is a doozy and far from set in stone. The 18z Euro just came in close to where the HWRF makes landfall, and thus stronger.

I didnt know there was a 18z Euro!

[Frank P]

TVCN and model cluster is near NOLA with a NE curve...interesting change

Follow the TVCN for best results, most of the time... I know it is usually very consistent with the NHC official forecast paths

[TheStormExpert]

New video discussion by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1148755923340529665

[TheStormExpert]

The HWRF is laughably always over done IMO

HWRF nailed Hurricane Danny in 2015, which underwent rapid intensification into a major hurricane in the Tropical Atlant:ic . It was the only model which had it as a major hurricane.

Don't be so hard on that model....

Every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut!

[northjaxpro]

TVCN and model cluster is near NOLA with a NE curve...interesting change

Q
Great Lakes TROUGH grabs Barry in that scenario, pulls it northeast across the Deep South region.