ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

2019SEP28 172025 6.3 935.6 122.2 6.3 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.72 -70.51 EYE 26 IR 47.7 22.75 44.80 ARCHER GOES16 43.2

ΔT~ 80* C again.

[cycloneye]

The lifeboat.

 https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1177979187958833154

[Highteeld]

2019SEP28 175025 6.4 933.3 124.6 6.4 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.92 -71.61 EYE 26 IR 48.9 22.75 44.74 ARCHER GOES16 43.3

[1900hurricane]

Pressure looks good for 951 mb from the dropsonde, which gives me about 107 kt with KZC. Hopefully the data transmission issues are solved!

>>> c = 10
>>> p = 951
>>> r34 = 185
>>> l = 22.9
>>> oci = 1012
>>> KZCV(p, c, r34, l, oci)
106.5999999999982

[Highteeld]

2019SEP28 172025 6.3 935.6 122.2 6.3 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.72 -70.51 EYE 26 IR 47.7 22.75 44.80 ARCHER GOES16 43.2

ΔT~ 80* C again.

2019SEP28 175025 6.4 933.3 124.6 6.4 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.92 -71.61 EYE 26 IR 48.9 22.75 44.74 ARCHER GOES16 43.3

[1900hurricane]

Wind data is back with a center pass coming up. Flight level winds from the NEQ so far appears (126 kt at 700 mb) to be suggestive of a borderline category 4 hurricane.

[StruThiO]

Even a .85 reduction of those FL level winds yields an intensity greater than 100 kt

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Even a .85 reduction of those FL level winds yields an intensity greater than 100 kt

Looks like the NHC agreed with you because the 18z ATCF is back up to 105 knots, MSLP 951mb.

[StruThiO]

Looks like the NHC agreed with you because the 18z ATCF is back up to 105 knots, MSLP 951mb.

go Lorenzo go!

[StruThiO]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 110 kts.

AL, 13, 2019092818, , BEST, 0, 229N, 450W, 110, 951, HU

[CrazyC83]

Based on a blend of the data, 110 kt seems about right.

[Astromanía]

There are 11 people still there after more than a day, I hope they are okay but I have a bad feeling

[1900hurricane]

110 kt is also what I would use. That actually agrees very well with KZC when using the 250 nm rOCI (109 kt).

>>> c = 10
>>> p = 951
>>> l = 22.9
>>> oci = 1012
>>> roci = 250
>>> KZCVroci(p, c, roci, l, oci)
108.99999999999807

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lorenzo will probably regain Cat 4 status again tonight if the trends continue.

[1900hurricane]

I do like eyewall passes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR is up to 112 knots.

May become a Cat 4 again by the next advisory.

[Highteeld]

I do like eyewall passes.

It's why we're all here today XD

[cycloneye]

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LORENZO HAS
RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 45.0W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

[northjaxpro]

Lorenzo never ceases to amaze me! What an incredible tropical cyclone! He is flexing his muscle yet again, regaining Cat 4 intensity.

This time around, let us hope they can keep Recon in there when he is rapidly intensifying, like he is doing now.

I am still extremely disappointed that Recon was not in there Thursday night when he was at near Cat 5 intensity. I still think he did attain it that night.

We will see what happens tonight.