ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

This is pretty silly at this point..

[floridasun78]

Not sure what is the thinking for recon going in tomorrow.. its need today

that not way work their cannot do same day their do plan next day

[GCANE]

New tower converging to the LLC from the north

[wxman57]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8568/oqwMFD.png

Hmmm, 8 pm edt tonight flight.
I guess its proximity to the mainland and avoidance of any surprises is the reason.
Or maybe they just want to get some practice.

I see 12Z tomorrow morning for that recon, not tonight. Still looks too poorly-defined to be called a TD, and it may have already peaked. Convection looks like it will stay east of Florida.

[Hurricane Jed]

Where is Stuart when you need him lol.

He's ready to upgrade it to a hurricane when he gets on shift tonight.

Note that the NHC mentions that after tonight the environment will become more hostile. I think it has already peaked as a strong tropical wave with a weak, broad, circulation. The NHC did name STS Andrea, though...

Even the most pathetic of systems can cause deadly flooding. Amelia 1978 is a fine example.

[tolakram]

If there's a tighter LLC it might peak out in the next few minutes.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1577.3972778320312&y=905.3569946289062

[GCANE]

4000 CAPE ridge developing just north of Andros.
Its going to wrap it in.

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is now off the nw coast of andros very clear on radar. With fresh convection building around it.

[boca]

Looking good but here in South Florida no rain.They will adjust the rain chances downward I’m thinking for tomorrow.

[Nimbus]

New tower converging to the LLC from the north

Sheared north from the "LLC" if they fly into it before that gets disrupted.
Might be some web cams in West Palm that capture some light scud circulation.
Years ago they never would consider declaring this a depression.

[Aric Dunn]

New tower converging to the LLC from the north

Sheared north from the "LLC" if they fly into it before that gets disrupted.
Might be some web cams in West Palm that capture some light scud circulation.
Years ago they never would consider declaring this a depression.

This would be a depression years ago or anytime. More than enough data.

[toad strangler]

Agree that convection associated with 94L likely will not impact FL terra firma. However, as the feature gets pulled away it should allow for a change in flow that flips the daily sea breeze action from the west coast to the east coast. So, indirectly the east coast of Fl will be impacted with higher rain chances going forward.

[blp]

This thing is really starting to look more impressive on radar. Heavy storms now forming around LLC. Plenty of banding and good rotation.

[GCANE]

I think its about here.
Watching that new tower just off the coast.
If I think its where it is, this may do it.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! This thing quickly started getting its act together once it entered the Bahamas region. Maybe it has something to do with those near 90° water temperatures.

[Aric Dunn]

I think its about here.
Watching that new tower just off the coast.
If I think its where it is, this may do it.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5172/bJOknV.png

Yeppers that would be roughly it.. radar showing big towers starting to billow.

[GCANE]

Yup, its ramping up.
Another tower just to the NE of the one I mentioned off the coast.

[GCANE]

I think its about here.
Watching that new tower just off the coast.
If I think its where it is, this may do it.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5172/bJOknV.png

Yeppers that would be roughly it.. radar showing big towers starting to billow.

For sure, its a tight spin.
This will go quickly.

[GCANE]

IR showing a clear out of the entire north.
Seems to be already venting.

[ronjon]

Well whatever comes of this disturbance will be swept out to sea with the deepening long-wave trof over the east coast bringing a cold front all the way down to north Florida by mid-week. None of the models really develop it - but it may be so small that they lack the resolution.