ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StruThiO]

sub 983mb xtrap

[StruThiO]

uhh FL winds are approaching 100 kt



does the plane changing altitude have anything to do with this?

[StruThiO]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon supports Jerry being anywhere from 70-75 knots. MSLP 983mb.

[StruThiO]

where is everyone at?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Shear's already hitting Jerry pretty hard, the CDO looks more like a half-moon than a full circle on IR.

[Visioen]

According to recon, pressure dropping like a stone currently. Cloud temps support that.

[Visioen]

Shear's already hitting Jerry pretty hard, the CDO looks more like a half-moon than a full circle on IR.

Indeed, really wondering what it can do before it becomes too much.

[Emmett_Brown]

Jerry intensifying rapidly despite the shear. Pressure dropped 6mb while recon was investigating.

[AutoPenalti]

What a sheared mess, the fact that some sondes are supporting 85kt is baffling.

[AnnularCane]

Jerry intensifying rapidly despite the shear. Pressure dropped 6mb while recon was investigating.

Tough little guy if that's true.

[Emmett_Brown]

2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19
Location: 17.2°N 55.2°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[FireRat]

We gotta watch little jerks like these which strengthen despite less than ideal shear environments. If Jerry finds a more favorable environment, it could really intensify into a major. The vigor and tenacity of this little guy reminds me of Dorian in his early stages.

It seems like over-achievers is the theme of this season.

[stormwatcher95]

Last few frames on visual show a convective burst that appears to be "pushing back" on the shear. Scrappy little guy for sure

[galaxy401]

I think some people here are over-exaggerating the shear. Wasn't suppose to severely affect Jerry until tonight. Still some time left.

[Aric Dunn]

Fwiw. This shear direction could quite easily keep jerry on a more 280 or 285 heading if it maintians this intensity and depth in the atmosphere. Looked like in the recon passes there was a subtle bend to more of a 283 heading...

Hard to say but on satellite the last hour also seems to be less northerly component

[Hammy]

Let's see if Jerry can pull a Jose-2000 and reach Cat 2 before the shear really hits, only 10kt to go.

[msbee]

Could I have some of your best "guesstimates" on what kind of weather we should expect on St Maarten from Jerry?
Thank you

[Aric Dunn]

Could I have some of your best "guesstimates" on what kind of weather we should expect on St Maarten from Jerry?
Thank you

I would prepare for a hurricane just incase.

[Aric Dunn]

Let's see if Jerry can pull a Jose-2000 and reach Cat 2 before the shear really hits, only 10kt to go.

It also may ride right along the edge of the strongest shear.