ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[sunnyday]

So is there no chance that 94 will touch SE Fl? Aric mentioned earlier that he thought it would come ashore in West Palm before turning NE.

[OuterBanker]

Latest discuss form our local nws (Morehead) has no mention of 94l or any tropical reference.
I see this staying offshore until it’s absorbed in the front.
Only caveat is if the front stalls or slows.

[GCANE]

Just put 2PM out. 60%

[AutoPenalti]

LLC is closed but just barely, I’ve seen worse looking TD’s that NHC issued.

[NDG]

Only at 60%, they are giving models the benefit of doubt that it will not develop, lol.

[tolakram]

60/60

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight. Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula. This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Weatherboy1]

As others have noted, we are now "code orange" vs. "code yellow" at 60%. But I tend to agree that most of the weather with this will stay east of me/us here in NE Palm Beach County

[Aric Dunn]

Where is Stuart when you need him lol.

[Aric Dunn]

So is there no chance that 94 will touch SE Fl? Aric mentioned earlier that he thought it would come ashore in West Palm before turning NE.

Steering would suggest coming ashore near westpalm but have to watch out for center deformations and slow downs like we have now. Slower now equals farther right

[GCANE]

Tower firing just north of the LLC.

[boca]

I think we will be sunny and hot with a NW wind and the rain just missing us.

[GCANE]

[SEASON_CANCELED]

This thing is gonna poof

[tarheelprogrammer]

This thing is gonna poof

Yeah, I believe it may already be a TD (weak one at that). I am not seeing much more development of it though. It is running out of time and the shear monster fast approaches.

[tolakram]

Current shear



60 frame vis loop: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1499.4046630859375&y=891.4533996582031

[SFLcane]

[wxman57]

Where is Stuart when you need him lol.

He's ready to upgrade it to a hurricane when he gets on shift tonight.

Note that the NHC mentions that after tonight the environment will become more hostile. I think it has already peaked as a strong tropical wave with a weak, broad, circulation. The NHC did name STS Andrea, though...

[OuterBanker]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8568/oqwMFD.png

Hmmm, 8 pm edt tonight flight.
I guess its proximity to the mainland and avoidance of any surprises is the reason.
Or maybe they just want to get some practice.

[GCANE]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8568/oqwMFD.png

Hmmm, 8 pm edt tonight flight.
I guess its proximity to the mainland and avoidance of any surprises is the reason.
Or maybe they just want to get some practice.

They also mentioned "CYCLONE" for flight two

[SFLcane]

Not sure what is the thinking for recon going in tomorrow.. its need today