ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176157338203578369

[TallyTracker]

Why doesn’t the NHC declare Karen a post-tropical cyclone and continue advisories? They could say it’s expected to regenerate in a day or two.

[Frank2]

They might discontinue advisories until it regenerates but it'd mean cancelling the TS Watch and that is something they'd rather not do unless they're absolutely sure...

[wxman57]

They might discontinue advisories until it regenerates but it'd mean cancelling the TS Watch and that is something they'd rather not do unless they're absolutely sure...

Right, they'll keep it as a TS regardless of what the plane finds unless the squalls dissipate as well.

[GCANE]

1008.9mb
Holding steady last 4.5 hrs

[EquusStorm]

Honestly for consistency and to keep people from putting their guard down it might not be a bad idea to keep spamming 40mph tropical storm operationally and then downgrade part of the path to post-tropical in post analysis. Impacts will be identical whether a TC or not but if they declared it temporarily dead I figure some would tune out.

[AutoPenalti]

Honestly for consistency and to keep people from putting their guard down it might not be a bad idea to keep spamming 40mph tropical storm operationally and then downgrade part of the path to post-tropical in post analysis. Impacts will be identical whether a TC or not but if they declared it temporarily dead I figure some would tune out.

I was thinking just the same, for public safety reasons keep it as a TS. Post-season analysis would keep this as a TD or remnant low.

[AtlanticWind]

Honestly for consistency and to keep people from putting their guard down it might not be a bad idea to keep spamming 40mph tropical storm operationally and then downgrade part of the path to post-tropical in post analysis. Impacts will be identical whether a TC or not but if they declared it temporarily dead I figure some would tune out.

I was thinking just the same, for public safety reasons keep it as a TS. Post-season analysis would keep this as a TD or remnant low.

I Think they may keep a TS. , but wouldn't be surprised if they downgraded if they dont believe it will regenerate before
Puerto Rico .

[msbee]

I think it is important to keep it as a TS. People stay more aware and are more careful.
Don't forget that the islands are very fragile. Many people in PR are still living under tarps. Heavy rain and some some wind could be quite destructive. Look what happened in Trinidad and Tobago.
I am in St Maarten and itis forecast to pass approximately 175 miles to our East.
And look at the special weather statement from our met office:

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR ST. MAARTEN:
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, possibly up to 4 inches in some areas. Increasing cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms are expected within the next 24 hours. Most of the significant showers are expected from tonight into Tuesday. Flooding and/or rockslides are expected in flood-prone areas and along hillsides. Residents and users of these areas are advised to be vigilant.

Winds: Gusty winds could accompany showers tonight through Tuesday.

Seas: Swells up to 9 feet are possible, mainly along the southern coast, during the passage of Tropical Storm Karen. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Beach erosion is possible in vulnerable areas. Sea-bathers are advised to stay away from the sea.

So even a raggedy looking thing like Karen can cause some serious problems for the islands.

[FrontRunner]

They might discontinue advisories until it regenerates but it'd mean cancelling the TS Watch and that is something they'd rather not do unless they're absolutely sure...

Right, they'll keep it as a TS regardless of what the plane finds unless the squalls dissipate as well.

They clearly left open the door to downgrade to a TD based on winds alone. However Frank2's post brings up an interesting point -- in theory could they "downgrade" to a PTC in order to maintain TS Watches?

[Nimbus]

Not gaining as much latitude either, kind of looks like a sharp wave ATM.
Might track through the Mona passage if this keeps up.

[AtlanticWind]

Not gaining as much latitude either, kind of looks like a sharp wave ATM.
Might track through the Mona passage if this keeps up.

To me it seems to gaining lattitude rather fast , and turning to almost due north.

[StormPyrate]

So with this west bend aside, what is causing it to fall apart after it clears PR? Is this high shear expected?

[TallyTracker]

They might discontinue advisories until it regenerates but it'd mean cancelling the TS Watch and that is something they'd rather not do unless they're absolutely sure...

Right, they'll keep it as a TS regardless of what the plane finds unless the squalls dissipate as well.

They clearly left open the door to downgrade to a TD based on winds alone. However Frank2's post brings up an interesting point -- in theory could they "downgrade" to a PTC in order to maintain TS Watches?

They kept issuing advisories on Dorian after it became extratropical for continuity as it crossed the Canadian Maritime provinces. They could do the same thing here and just call it Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen. That way they can keep issuing advisories and keep the tropical storm warnings up. Either way it’s the same impacts, but it would at least be some deference to categorizing Karen scientifically as well as considering public safety impacts.

[StruThiO]

They kept issuing advisories on Dorian after it became extratropical for continuity as it crossed the Canadian Maritime provinces. They could do the same thing here and just call it Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen. That way they can keep issuing advisories and keep the tropical storm warnings up. Either way it’s the same impacts, but it would at least be some deference to categorizing Karen scientifically as well as considering public safety impacts.

Sorry to be a pedant, but it would be Remnants of Karen, not Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen

[TallyTracker]

They kept issuing advisories on Dorian after it became extratropical for continuity as it crossed the Canadian Maritime provinces. They could do the same thing here and just call it Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen. That way they can keep issuing advisories and keep the tropical storm warnings up. Either way it’s the same impacts, but it would at least be some deference to categorizing Karen scientifically as well as considering public safety impacts.

Sorry to be a pedant, but it would be Remnants of Karen, not Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen

That would work too! Anything but tropical storm! lol

[otowntiger]

Looks like Euro and GFS both now kill it off after the ridge blocks it out in Atlantic and pushes what’s left off to the west. Good news if that trend continues. And it looks like the remnants even miss south FL. of course it may well dissipate before getting out of the Caribbean.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like Euro and GFS both now kill it off after the ridge blocks it out in Atlantic and pushes what’s left off to the west. Good news if that trend continues. And it looks like the remnants even miss south FL. of course it may well dissipate before getting out of the Caribbean.

remnants are right over sofla at 192 and 216...remnants, thats it

[toad strangler]

Looks like Euro and GFS both now kill it off after the ridge blocks it out in Atlantic and pushes what’s left off to the west. Good news if that trend continues. And it looks like the remnants even miss south FL. of course it may well dissipate before getting out of the Caribbean.

remnants are right over sofla at 192 and 216...remnants, thats it

I am surprised at how much the wave slowed down after many runs of rocketing it all the way west. Verbatim that's a rainy / squally couple days in SFL

[chris_fit]

Really looks like Karen self destructed today... looks awful