ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#261 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:42 am

Tropical Storm JERRY
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 19, 2019:

Location: 15.7°N 52.6°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#262 Postby watsx2 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:22 am

Sorry for the intrusion.....can anyone tell me when a wave gets an invest number? Trying to find info on the wave east and south of Jerry?

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#263 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:29 am

watsx2 wrote:Sorry for the intrusion.....can anyone tell me when a wave gets an invest number? Trying to find info on the wave east and south of Jerry?

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There's no technical threshhold like there is for upgrade intensity, but they will often designate an invest once NHC chances get above 30%--right now that wave isn't even being mentioned in the outlooks.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#264 Postby watsx2 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:50 am

Hammy wrote:
watsx2 wrote:Sorry for the intrusion.....can anyone tell me when a wave gets an invest number? Trying to find info on the wave east and south of Jerry?

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There's no technical threshhold like there is for upgrade intensity, but they will often designate an invest once NHC chances get above 30%--right now that wave isn't even being mentioned in the outlooks.
Thank you for the response.....

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#265 Postby watsx2 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:53 am

Something tells me......we should watch this storm..... I remember another hurricane that had this same "evil" skull appearance in its model.....anyone else notice this? Just an observationImage

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#266 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:02 am

Forecast intensity got boosted a good bit on the 11pm, now officially forecast to still be a hurricane at the end of the 5 day. This despite shear expected to increase. If it filters out dry air effectively enough, I wouldn't at all be shocked if it exceeded short term intensity forecasts
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#267 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:09 am

Jerry is likely a hurricane at this point... viewing the IR imagery, strong convection starting to wrap/rotate around the center, which would seem to signify that the core is organized enough to support 64 kts. Convection is not pulsey like it was yesterday either.
Image
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#268 Postby stormwatcher95 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:23 am

Image
Pretty cool shot this morning with the SAL following
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#269 Postby Frank2 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:45 am

The issue now is not a USEC problem but another hurricane for Bermuda who received more from Humberto than they expected. Behind Jerry is nothing for now for the US, per the GFS...
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#270 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:49 am

Should be a hurricane in short order.

HWRF actually has Jerry becoming a Major Hurricane overnight.

Image
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#271 Postby nativefloridian » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:51 am

As per NHC at 8 am:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THE WAY TO JERRY...
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#272 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:06 am

This is giving me flashbacks to back-to-back Fay and Gonzalo. Luckily it is a smaller storm than Humberto so unless it grows significantly it will have to pass pretty close to Bermuda to have major impacts.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#273 Postby stormwatcher95 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:31 am

mimic has him listed as hurricane jerry now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/tc.shtml
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#274 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:34 am

Recon finding winds that easily support a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#275 Postby GrayLancer18 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:41 am

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1174692435638833153


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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#276 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:43 am

Definitely a hurricane now based on recon.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#277 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:54 am

Yea, definitely a hurricane. MSLP was lower than I was expecting too. Could really put on a show today if the HWRF is accurate.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#278 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:55 am

And officially the 4th hurricane of the season.

..AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...
11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19
Location: 16.8°N 54.4°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#279 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:55 am

Considerably stronger on the second pass :double:
MSLP is down by 5 mb and FL winds are up by around 10 kts
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#280 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:16 am

Hey 1900/GCANE/Aric, what kind of shear is Jerry going to be facing?
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