ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

OSCAT 6 hrs ago showed two surface lows.

[northjaxpro]

This sure looks warm core to me GCANE. It is traversing over very warm ssts in the Central Gulf of Mexico right now and the system is fully taking advantage of it right now.

[northjaxpro]

OSCAT 6 hrs ago showed two surface lows.

https://i.imgur.com/NpBOHBu.jpg

I am of the thought that the southern most vort may be becoming the dominant one imo. If that is the case, we will have a much stronger cyclone on our hands to deal with this weekend. Also, the track would shift to the south and east as well if that is the case.

[GCANE]

Looks like two CoCs each with rotating hot towers and feeder bands.
UL trough has a slight negative tilt.
Southern CoC (23.5N 93W) appears to benefit from a bit of UL divergence.

[GCANE]

OSCAT 6 hrs ago showed two surface lows.

https://i.imgur.com/NpBOHBu.jpg

I am of the thought that the southern most vort may be becoming the dominant one imo. If that is the case, we will have a much stronger cyclone on our hands to deal with this weekend. Also, the track would shift to the south and east as well if that is the case.

Yes, very much agree.

[GCANE]

AMSU is estimating this at TS strength

[northjaxpro]

Looking at that above AMSU and current observations I am noticing, and the explosion of deep convection firing just off and away from the CoC, I am of the belief this a decent TS right now, which has the potential to become an even stronger cyclone.

[GCANE]

Looking at GFS, the UL trough looks to be about the strongest in the next few hours and then back off a little on intensity.
The key thing I am watching if convection starts wrapping around the southern CoC.
If it starts filling in to the NW of it, it'll indicate the trough is weakening.
That could likely then allow intensification of the southern CoC.
This would then be a good setup with deep mid-layer moisture ahead of its track and a strong infeed of high TPW air from the EPAC thru the IoT.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at GFS, the UL trough looks to be about the strongest in the next few hours and then back off a little on intensity.
The key thing I am watching if convection starts wrapping around the southern CoC.
If it starts filling in to the NW of it, it'll indicate the trough is weakening.
That could likely then allow intensification of the southern CoC.
This would then be a good setup with deep mid-layer moisture ahead of its track and a strong infeed of high TPW air from the EPAC thru the IoT.

Yep. I agree. The next Recon mission will be quite an interesting one later today.

[GCANE]

UL Trough is weakening, filling in with mid-layer moisture.
Plenty of room and time for 16L to strengthen.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If I didn’t know any better, I’d think this was going to go to South Florida. Such is the illusion created by shear. Big system so the whole Florida Peninsula and Panhandle should get squalls with embedded severe thunderstorms.

[N2FSU]

UL Trough is weakening, filling in with mid-layer moisture.
Plenty of room and time for 16L to strengthen.

6z GFS picking up on that perhaps? Stronger prior to landfall at 990mb vs 997 on 0z. Don’t want any last minute surprises here in Tallahassee. With our tree cover, it doesn’t take much.


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[northjaxpro]

If I didn’t know any better, I’d think this was going to go to South Florida. Such is the illusion created by shear. Big system so the whole Florida Peninsula and Panhandle should get squalls with embedded severe thunderstorms.

Yep. Also, SPC has placed most of the Florida peninsula under a MARGINAL risk for Severe storms for this event with future Nestor for the entire day for Saturday into early Sunday. This includes Southern Georgia and the areas along the Southeast U.S.Coast region of South and North Carolina.

[northjaxpro]

UL Trough is weakening, filling in with mid-layer moisture.
Plenty of room and time for 16L to strengthen.

https://i.imgur.com/DQ1nnK7.png

6z GFS picking up on that perhaps? Stronger prior to landfall at 990mb vs 997 on 0z. Don’t want any last minute surprises here in Tallahassee. With our tree cover, it doesn’t take much.


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Yeah the models , as I anticipated, are picking up on intensifying Nestor right on approach to landfall on tomorrow. I hate this is apparently going to happen to the very same areas that were devastated last year by Michael. My thoughts are always to those who were affected by that monster storm, including my own extended family down there in Lynn Haven. I just hope everyone in the Panama City and Big Bend region are doing the necessary preps with this incoming cyclone this weekend and not get caught off guard by this!!

[Steve H.]

Looks like it is wrapping up finally with some deep convection now building. Recon in a few hours.

[NDG]

OSCAT 6 hrs ago showed two surface lows.

https://i.imgur.com/NpBOHBu.jpg

I am of the thought that the southern most vort may be becoming the dominant one imo. If that is the case, we will have a much stronger cyclone on our hands to deal with this weekend. Also, the track would shift to the south and east as well if that is the case.

That's what the recon showed yesterday evening, on the latest IR shortwave loop it shows that other surface low rotating around the most southern circulation closer to the deep convection, which by the way, the convection so far is further south and east than what the models forecasting it to be this morning.

[Nimbus]

Although the COC is exposed I was hoping the dry shear would hinder development more than it has.
Southern vort is moving ENE away from the shear over warm SST's.
Lets hope both vorts remain to keep the wind intensities down.
If the models are tracking the northern vort there still could be some surprises in the forecast.

[N2FSU]

I agree northjax, I feel for the people devastated from Michael. They don’t need ANYTHING even remotely threatening (I have family in PCB). I can tell you here in Tallahassee, there isn’t a whole lot of attention being paid by the general public. Unfortunately people see “Tropical Storm” and don’t think much of it. I’m worried about a last minute intensification on approach to landfall that would catch most people off guard.

[NDG]

If the convection continues to stay on a lower latitude today I would think the CoC will follow it and models will shift to the right, I will not be surprised if it ends up making landfall near Apalachicola if not a little further east.

[MetsIslesNoles]

I agree northjax, I feel for the people devastated from Michael. They don’t need ANYTHING even remotely threatening (I have family in PCB). I can tell you here in Tallahassee, there isn’t a whole lot of attention being paid by the general public. Unfortunately people see “Tropical Storm” and don’t think much of it. I’m worried about a last minute intensification on approach to landfall that would catch most people off guard.

People here have quickly forgotten that Hermine ( <70mph peak gust here) had power out 3-7 days. Thankfully some cutting back + the damage from last year should reduce that, but it’s well within the realm we’ll have plenty of power outages this weekend.