ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Definitely an elongated circulation with multiple vortices is what Recon is finding so far. The latest HWRF shows that it will not consolidate until late tomorrow afternoon.

[hipshot]

Flying north at low level on west side of CoC.... BUMPY ride! lol

I was in a flight crew in a P3C in the Navy in the late 60's. Those things are really a very bumpy ride even under slightly adverse conditions. I sure as
heck wouldn't want to be in one anywhere near a big storm.

[northjaxpro]

PTC 16

[Weatherboy1]

Sure looks to me like the cloud shield is moving more ENE or almost E. Noteworthy motion was described as 20 degrees at 5 pm EST, then 40 degrees at 8 pm. Is this thing going to landfall further south? Something I’m wondering and have been all day. Guess we’ll have to see what the overnight motion turns out to be

[Frank2]

Upper level clouds going ENE but the system is moving NE. For once I'm glad it's a PTC - sure doesn't look like much else tonight, not with 50 Kts of shear overhead...

Mostly a rain event...

[Dean4Storms]

Here just East of Destin, expecting winds gusting to possibly 60mph according to the forecast but we all know how the warm Gulf waters can ignite a Low into rapidly deepening if it finds itself in a better environment and those fighting always tend to pop the quickest. Will keep a weary eye on this tomorrow and plan accordingly.

[boca]

I agree weatherboy1 that 16 is moving more ENE and South Florida might get just rain out of this without the wind.

[Aric Dunn]

And off it goes..convection exloding

[tropicwatch]

And off it goes..convection exloding

Yeah but can it hold it. Not that I want it to.

[northjaxpro]

TNT31 KNHC 180236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 93.7W

ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical
or subtropical storm on Friday, with slow strengthening then
expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

[wxman57]

Not looking tropical at all tonight. Yeah, there are a few squalls out there, but there is no organization at all. No convergence in toward any center. Upper low over Texas is digging southeastward and pumping up the shear over the disturbance. It's more like a wave on a cold front. Should be shooting off to the NE now.

[Steve H.]

TS Warning now extends down to Yankeetown. Creeping southward. Still doesn't look very organized yet though. Hmm.

[Aric Dunn]

There is are some very pronounced southerly inflow streamers into that convection. looks like the center has consolidated between the two blobs somewhere based on the curvature.

[floridasun78]

look all storm are south and east of center alot dry air behind 16ptc let see could more stormy over central fl and south fl if storms dont start going more round system center

[psyclone]

This could end up a shutout for those west of the track...while those well east get some decent rains. Doesn't look organized or tropical at all. I wouldn't be surprised if a winter like squall line with some attendant svr risk develops east of the center and blows across peninsular florida. Should be an interesting weather event regardless.

[rigbyrigz]

Yeah, Levi explains a trough and non-tropical low forming to the NE and he even says its gonna "jump" or be pulled in fast. Our local source says the Gulf is warm (im 10 minutes from Keaton Beach and water is indeed warm) and no real shear so models showing might be 60-70 near landfall seem feasible. A nasty night, no power, some tornadoes and local flooding, could be worse I guess here but no one is evacuating and even Walmart shelves were full at 5pm. Many haven't even heard about the trop storm warning now widely in effect it came on us so suddenly, and no name yet. Nestor, what a silly name anyway lol.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like we might have a CDO building.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif"

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Here just East of Destin, expecting winds gusting to possibly 60mph according to the forecast but we all know how the warm Gulf waters can ignite a Low into rapidly deepening if it finds itself in a better environment and those fighting always tend to pop the quickest. Will keep a weary eye on this tomorrow and plan accordingly.

Or on the flip side we all know that warm gulf waters mean next to nothing when dry and shear is around. Heck more systems then not always seem to find some dry and shear even when conditions seem to be favorable in the gulf, especially the northern gulf.

[northjaxpro]

It sure looks like to me that the center reformed overnight and a very impressive convective burst developed near the reformed center. I would place the center near 24.2 N and 92.4 W, just on the western edge of that very deep convection. Westerly shear has the deep convection just removed from the CoC at this time and will likely remain this way from here on out..

If the center did do a reformation, I would also think the track may shift a bit south and east as well.

[GCANE]

Large MCS firing along a very sharp dryline.
Should be going over the Loop-Current eddy just around sunrise.
Spinning, persistent Hot Tower trying to build a warm core.