ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Named after Jerry Jarrell, former NHC Forecaster and Director (for those who care about such nonsense)

Really? They actually put a name on the lists in honor of a particular person and admitted it? Are there any other names that have been put on the lists in honor of specific meteorologists? Is there any place to find out this information?

They're not technically supposed to represent anyone in particular, but there is probably a few other ones out there that share a name with someone those who made the lists know personally. Perhaps the most famous one is a storm named after John Hope's daughter.

Well, "TECHNICALLY" every name is up for grabs! So they've ALL got to share a name with SOMEONE....

[drezee]

Buoy 41NT0 is now showing 280 deg winds and pressure down to 1005mb. Center is N or the center is elongated SW to NE

[blp]

Buoy 41NT0 is now showing 280 deg winds and pressure down to 1005mb. Center is N or the center is elongated SW to NE

Yes, Levi is alluding to this possibly not being completely aligned yet.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1174412235613097986

[blp]

HWRF coming in much stronger at 986 in 45hrs.

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/BQXHfdB.jpg

One hell of a hot tower.

Yeah, I saw it just near the end of the loop, very large.

[Nimbus]

https://i.imgur.com/BQXHfdB.jpg

One hell of a hot tower.

Yeah, I saw it just near the end of the loop, very large.

Just south of the hot tower there was a little dome structure tracking along west south of the hot tower. That could be outflow blowing up through a quasi eye like structure near the developing center?

[msbee]

So we are under a tropical storm watch as of the 5 PM advisory!

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and
St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

[Abdullah]

https://i.imgur.com/6uBo2RV.jpg

Where did you get this loop? I checked the tropicaltidbits website but I'm not finding anything!

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Thinking 65mph next advisory

[Abdullah]

as others have alluded too. the makings of RI are afoot.

Aric, you and Levi have both alluded to the fact that a stronger system means less poleward in this particular instance.

Why is that?

A stronger system is deeper. It has more thickness from sea level to the top of its clouds. Therefore it is steered differently because winds at different levels are going in different directions. If it gets a little taller it will be pushed on by stronger upper level winds blowing from the NE to the SW. That pushes it left of its predicted track. But different wind directions at different levels is also what causes shear. Shear is bad for developing storms and not good for any storm. But a strong storm is more able to resist effects of shear and simply be pushed in a different direction.

How strong does it have to be to effectively resist shear?

[Abdullah]

Thinking 65mph next advisory

Only? That's at 11:00 P.M.!!! More than 4 hours from now!!! I'm thinking 70-75 mph if it keeps up what it's been doing(but it doesn't look too good on Infared Satellite)

[Highteeld]

hot off the press:

[AtlanticWind]

Thinking 65mph next advisory

Only? That's at 11:00 P.M.!!! More than 4 hours from now!!! I'm thinking 70-75 mph if it keeps up what it's been doing(but it doesn't look too good on Infared Satellite)

Since watches are up, there will be an advisory at 8pm

[1900hurricane]

hot off the press:

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/10L.JERRY/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20190918.2202.f17.x.91h_1deg.10LJERRY.50kts-1000mb-148N-499W.081pc.jpg

Looks to have developed a pretty small RMW. Looks like the main convective tower is still shaded to the southwest side of the center, which is a little easer to see on this Coriolis pass from an hour before.

[StruThiO]

Where did you get this loop? I checked the tropicaltidbits website but I'm not finding anything!

here's the direct link,

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

[Abdullah]

Where did you get this loop? I checked the tropicaltidbits website but I'm not finding anything!

here's the direct link,

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

Thanks!!! So I can't use the individual storm floater to get 1-minute changes, can I?

[Visioen]

Where did you get this loop? I checked the tropicaltidbits website but I'm not finding anything!

here's the direct link,

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

Thanks!!! So I can't use the individual storm floater to get 1-minute changes, can I?

That is correct.

[Visioen]

IR makes me think it's getting more vertically aligned.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1174452468278841344




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1174459452323446784

[1900hurricane]

That one core convective tower certainly is doing work right now.

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1174457976083615744