ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Satellite Imagery:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL052019
From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=al052019
Model products on that site: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=al052019

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satelli ... 14&lon=-58
From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center ... obalir-avn

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... 24-0-100-1

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 535&y=8134

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... km&PROD=ir
From: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Mesoscale floater 2 imagery (which it is currently on, meaning one minute imagery):

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_index.php
Then select which one it is out of usually the top two listed.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... ew=leaflet

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... 24-0-100-1

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/s ... ct=10p35um

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/#meso

The SLIDER product has mesoscale imagery too, but at the moment it is not showing the storm like it should, instead having outdated imagery from a prior floater position over 98L:
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 000&y=1000

This SSEC site also usually has mesoscale imagery, but doesn't at the moment for this storm on this mesoscale floater:
https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/an ... javascript

[Highteeld]

TXNT28 KNES 241825
TCSNTL

A. 05L (NONAME)

B. 24/1800Z

C. 10.7N

D. 48.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...2.5/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[AtlanticWind]

I’m having a hard time believing that Dorian will be a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard.

have been plenty of powerful hurricanes in the eastern carribean,they do usally need to be a least a strong tropical storm before they enter the
carribean

[NotSparta]

New convective burst:

[abajan]

Here's Levi Cowan's take on the situation.

[captainbarbossa19]

I’m having a hard time believing that Dorian will be a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard.

have been plenty of powerful hurricanes in the eastern carribean,they do usally need to be a least a strong tropical storm before they enter the
carribean

Unfortunately, Maria was a good example of not having any trouble strengthening in the eastern Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

not sure how PR will able take other hit again by strong hurr will be bad for them

[Kosmo Kitty]

If it comes to Miami it will be the next weekend.

[Kingarabian]

New convective burst:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae ... 8c3aa3.gif

Yeah its IR depiction is lacking. Let's see how it looks tomorrow.

[Sciencerocks]

Having an hard time with mid level dry air it would appear by the collapse of the convection. It will have to mix it out and refire the convection to attempt to strengthen and that maybe starting with the new blow up...

[Ubuntwo]

ASCAT indicates max winds of 30kt. This was upgraded prematurely or has weakened since.

[BYG Jacob]

ASCAT is not infallible, and it also has well known issues with smaller storms.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/614941390698315778/614999377295179784/LATEST.png?width=676&height=676
ASCAT indicates max winds of 30kt. This was upgraded prematurely or has weakened since.

Keep in mind ASCAT has limited resolution and Dorian is a tiny, tiny tropical storm.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 0, 108N, 497W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 3, 109N, 502W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 12, 112N, 519W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 24, 117N, 540W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, DAZ, 285, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 36, 125N, 561W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 36, 125N, 561W, 50, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 48, 132N, 582W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 48, 132N, 582W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 623W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 623W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 30, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 96, 170N, 665W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, DAZ, 295, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 120, 190N, 700W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 10,

[AubreyStorm]

AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 0, 108N, 497W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 3, 109N, 502W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 12, 112N, 519W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 24, 117N, 540W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, DAZ, 285, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 36, 125N, 561W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 36, 125N, 561W, 50, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 48, 132N, 582W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 48, 132N, 582W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 623W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 623W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 30, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 96, 170N, 665W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, DAZ, 295, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 120, 190N, 700W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 10,

Upgrade?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think Dorian is more than 40mph.

[AutoPenalti]

Definitely weaker since this morning, that popcorn convection is firing right on schedule.

[Sciencerocks]

[AtlanticWind]

I have seen with a lot of storms in the MDR will fire convection when they reach 55W. The warmer SST's make a big difference.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 0, 108N, 497W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 3, 109N, 502W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 12, 112N, 519W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, DAZ, 280, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 24, 117N, 540W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, DAZ, 285, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 36, 125N, 561W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 36, 125N, 561W, 50, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 48, 132N, 582W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 48, 132N, 582W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 290, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 623W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 623W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 30, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 96, 170N, 665W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, DAZ, 295, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082500, 03, OFCL, 120, 190N, 700W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, DAZ, 300, 10,

Upgrade?

Yes.