ATL: JERRY - Models

[otowntiger]

https://i.imgur.com/SiV2dsJ.gif

very solid recurve, no question about it. It may have trended slightly west but still a big and definitive turn in keeping with a well established pattern. I see no concerns/doubts in the NHC discussions regarding track.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/SiV2dsJ.gif

very solid recurve, no question about it. It may have trended slightly west but still a big and definitive turn in keeping with a well established pattern. I see no concerns/doubts in the NHC discussions regarding track.

Still important to watch trends. the euro ensembles were one of the first to see dorian’s stall.

[chris_fit]

GFS Recurves
GFS Legacy Recurves
CMC & ENS Recurves
EURO Recurves
UKMET & ENS Recurves
ICON Recurves
NHC does not use the word Recurves but just shy of that "North" movement

Pretty much the only thing not recurving is a couple stray Euro ENS

I think it's fair to say that 99% chance this is recurving. Sorry Bermuda though.

[jconsor]

Three tropical cyclones in years I consider analogs to 2019 that formed in the central tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles managed to continue W/NW to make landfall in the US in the last third of Sep, despite forming relative later in the year than most US landfalling systems that originate in the same area.

Helene 1958

Inez 1966

Gloria 1985

Other examples were the 1938 New England hurricane, Hugo in 1989, Georges in 1998, and Jeanne in 2004.

Still recurving on the euro at 96hrs

It does recurve, but in a different way. I do not like the trend. This run is 12 hours faster from being a bend left. I want to see the ensembles...

It trended westward earlier but yeah if there is a weakness there it will still turn. Could be a sharp right turn like Humberto. Getting a bit to late in the year for anything to head to far west before being turned north

[sma10]

GFS Recurves
GFS Legacy Recurves
CMC & ENS Recurves
EURO Recurves
UKMET & ENS Recurves
ICON Recurves
NHC does not use the word Recurves but just shy of that "North" movement

Pretty much the only thing not recurving is a couple stray Euro ENS

I think it's fair to say that 99% chance this is recurving. Sorry Bermuda though.

Clearly the models are all in agreement on a recurve shy of the Bahamas, and the forecast looks pretty clear cut. I suppose the only thing of interest (other than the threat to Bermuda, of course) is if Jerry does something spectacularly unexpected, like deepen to 950mb. Even then I'm not certain that would change the track.

[LarryWx]

Although some 2/3 or so of the ~51 0Z Euro ens members still don't threaten the CONUS (most recurve hundreds of miles offshore though unfortunately many of these do threaten or even hit Bermuda), just over 25% do hit or are about to hit the CONUS. I count 6 in FL (5 pen., 1 pan.), ~3 in TX, one each in NC/SC/GA/LA, and one headed to ~AL. So, 13 hit and 1 is about to hit at the end of the run vs ~10 on the prior run.

Good news for CONUS folks who don't want Jerry to come by. The 12Z Euro Ens is much less active as regards the CONUS vs the 0Z mentioned above. Whereas the 0Z essentially had ~14 actual TC hits (over 25%), the 12Z has only ~4 legit TC hits: 3 FL pen, and 1 LA/MS.

Edit: The TCs in the Bahamas at hour 240 do later hit FL, but these are NOT from Jerry as they're from a later wave.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS

[Aric Dunn]

Overall the EPS thinking has not changed. stronger south.

so taking current trends. south appears to be quite plausible.

Though even with the EURO and EPS. they keep it 30 to 40kts for the next 36 to 48 hours.. I doubt that happens.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/I7lL2i5.png

Thanks for posting this, which clearly shows how many fewer members hit the CONUS. If the Euro ens is implying it may be giving up the ghost, what model would be left that is implying much of a CONUS threat? I can't think of any.

[AtlanticWind]

12Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/I7lL2i5.png

Thanks for posting this, which clearly shows how many fewer members hit the CONUS. If the Euro ens is implying it may be giving up the ghost, what model would be left that is implying much of a CONUS threat? I can't think of any.

Again , on the Euro ensembles those depicting a stronger storm are further west.
The key is most models keep this as a weak system .They are most likely right.
But if ,big if , Jerry becomes say a cat 2 hurricane you may see a west shift in the modeling.

[toad strangler]

12Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/I7lL2i5.png

Thanks for posting this, which clearly shows how many fewer members hit the CONUS. If the Euro ens is implying it may be giving up the ghost, what model would be left that is implying much of a CONUS threat? I can't think of any.

Gun to head gotta go with climo and that is the earlier N re-curve.

[LarryWx]

GFS Recurves
GFS Legacy Recurves
CMC & ENS Recurves
EURO Recurves
UKMET & ENS Recurves
ICON Recurves
NHC does not use the word Recurves but just shy of that "North" movement

Pretty much the only thing not recurving is a couple stray Euro ENS

I think it's fair to say that 99% chance this is recurving. Sorry Bermuda though.

I think 99% is too high. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I''d still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.

Edit: I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean, IF that ends up the case.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF weakens it rapidly

[CreponChris]

Don't think these were posted yet. These are self-described as far as I could tell as well I hope they are helpful

[sma10]

GFS Recurves
GFS Legacy Recurves
CMC & ENS Recurves
EURO Recurves
UKMET & ENS Recurves
ICON Recurves
NHC does not use the word Recurves but just shy of that "North" movement

Pretty much the only thing not recurving is a couple stray Euro ENS

I think it's fair to say that 99% chance this is recurving. Sorry Bermuda though.

I think 99% is too high. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I''d still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.

Edit: I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean, IF that ends up the case.

Those odds sound reasonable. We see this very often with long trackers when all models finally come into agreement on recurve. I maintain the only wild card would be if Jerry deepens much more significantly than modeled, and holds that intensity.

[icallstorms]

Now at 60 mph as of 5PM

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF This time is a full Degree south at 80 hrs. after being nearly a cat 4 then weakening north of PR

[Aric Dunn]

1.5 degree shift west and south for the HWRF 18z. nearly into the SE and central bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

[floridasun78]

even gefs show bit more south and west between 12z and 18z here link to both