ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1175401973555838977

[mpic]

https://i.imgur.com/zlrFk9h.png

What is that yellow X?

[Visioen]

I think this one has a good chance, but it's relatively fast forward speed might make it difficult to close off.

[StormLogic]

https://i.imgur.com/zlrFk9h.png

What is that yellow X?

a disturbance that there currently watching, giving it less than 30-40% chance of development right now.

[abajan]

https://i.imgur.com/zlrFk9h.png

What is that yellow X?

a disturbance that there currently watching, giving it less than 30-40% chance of development right now.

Actually, the 8 AM TWO says it has near 0% chance of formation in both the 2-day and 5-day periods.

[GCANE]

Fast surface winds.
That outflow boundary is moving like a bat out of hell.
Looks like an open wave at this point.

[Buck]

Some warm waters await, if this does decide to pull itself together.

[abajan]

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/plots/caribbean_buoy_watertemp.jpg

Some warm waters await, if this does decide to pull itself together.

Yes, it's a royal mess right now, isn't it.

[tropicwatch]

So far HH is not finding much but they just got in there.

[gatorcane]

The GFS models both FV3 and Legacy are now turning this west and SW once north of the islands. That is a big difference from the prior runs. See models thread.

[wxman57]

The GFS models both FV3 and Legacy are now turning this west and SW once north of the islands. That is a big difference from the prior runs. See models thread.

The GFS performed quite poorly recently. Let's see what Euro says...

Looks like a moderate tropical wave, to me. Had an observation south of it this morning with easterly winds 20 kts. Might briefly develop into a TD/TS in the eastern Caribbean late tomorrow/Monday before accelerating out to sea to the north and dissipating. Doesn't appear to have much of a future.

[Nuno]

I don't see much coming out of this long term though it could be a major flood thread for the islands.

And given that I'm rooting for the eastern system to become Karen (as it'll be around longer) this will probably end up wasting the name by becoming a TS for a single advisory.

I hear what you're saying, but let's not discount a TS for a single advisory too much after Imelda...had to chuckle. Got 29"

Yeah, I've seen depressions cause a mess, TD11 in 1999 had a horrendous death toll in Mexico from flooding.

In this case it's more that I'd just rather a name I'm particularly partial to (anime reasons ) be the one that's on the map longer (and less of a threat).

Tropical Storm Araragi.

[Bostonriff]

Curious why they're dedicating a recon to this when it's projected to be, at best, a TD when it recurves north over PR for a fish future in the North Atlantic.

On a side-note: what's the record for storms running through the east-Carib Hebert Box that never hit Florida (that being what the Herbert Boxes are predictors for)? So far, we're 0-for-2 this season, and will be 0-3 when 99L misses too.

2019 reminds me of 1995 and 1996, which had a lot of storms, but with reduced/less-intense Caribbean and GoM activity, and much early-recurving fish.

[DioBrando]

I hear what you're saying, but let's not discount a TS for a single advisory too much after Imelda...had to chuckle. Got 29"

Yeah, I've seen depressions cause a mess, TD11 in 1999 had a horrendous death toll in Mexico from flooding.

In this case it's more that I'd just rather a name I'm particularly partial to (anime reasons ) be the one that's on the map longer (and less of a threat).

Tropical Storm Araragi.

Hurricane Dio

[gatorcane]

Curious why they're dedicating a recon to this when it's projected to be, at best, a TD when it recurves north over PR for a fish future in the North Atlantic.

On a side-note: what's the record for storms running through the east-Carib Hebert Box that never hit Florida (that being what the Herbert Boxes are predictors for)? So far, we're 0-for-2 this season, and will be 0-3 when 99L misses too.

2019 reminds me of 1995 and 1996, which had a lot of storms, but with reduced/less-intense Caribbean and GoM activity, and much early-recurving fish.

May not be a recurving fish based on some of the 12Z guidance coming in though the 12Z guidance doesn’t show anything strong.

[cycloneye]

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical
wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this
afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but
confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although
the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development
is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this
weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly
westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[NotSparta]

Lots of outflow boundaries on the north side of the convective mass

[Agua]

https://i.imgur.com/zlrFk9h.png

What is that yellow X?

Former 96L

[floridasun78]

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical
wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this
afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but
confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although
the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development
is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this
weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly
westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

no shear now eastern Caribbean or forgot put it on outlook?

[wxman57]

Curious why they're dedicating a recon to this when it's projected to be, at best, a TD when it recurves north over PR for a fish future in the North Atlantic.

On a side-note: what's the record for storms running through the east-Carib Hebert Box that never hit Florida (that being what the Herbert Boxes are predictors for)? So far, we're 0-for-2 this season, and will be 0-3 when 99L misses too.

2019 reminds me of 1995 and 1996, which had a lot of storms, but with reduced/less-intense Caribbean and GoM activity, and much early-recurving fish.

I suspect that recon was already stationed in St. Croix after investigating Jerry. It wasn't a long flight to check out the disturbance. I doubt that the NHC would have sent a plane all the way from Keesler to investigate it.