WPAC: TAPAH - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Perfect agreement with EURO and GFS showing a very slow developer.

[Hayabusa]

ukmet nothing

[Tailspin]

Solid typhoon thinks hwrf

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Models tries to split this into two making it a very elongated system

[Tailspin]

Yeah looks like a monsoonal type gyre. Could get a few vortex's spin out of its head. Will make
for a Interesting few weeks maybe with the westerly winds about no doubt.



Hopefully no re-numbered invests too futher confuse me.

[Hayabusa]

According to the latest GFS runs soon the one near the dateline is now the one to watch (no invest yet) in terms of intensity forecast, days ago it was showing 95W to be the one to watch. oh gfs, could be another fluke. let's see

[Hayabusa]

[Tailspin]

[Tailspin]

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY
283 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SWATH OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY IMPROVING, WITH A BROADER REGION
OF LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE (29-31C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SOON AFTER AS IT TAKES A
MEANDERING NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061330Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 136.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY
525 NM WEST OF GUAM. A 100037Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
A BROAD, POORLY-ORGANIZED MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION PRIMARILY SHEARED TO THE WEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) AND
STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW EASTWARD TO POLEWARD MOTION
THROUGH TAU 48, AND GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 100306
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 10/0230Z

C. 13.7N

D. 132.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3.5/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE. DT=2.0
MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WELL FORMED LLCC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

95W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 10, 2019:

Location: 12.0°N 135.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 100600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 12.0N 135.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

[Hayabusa]

What are the models seeing? Dance of the storms?

[euro6208]

Sucks that we aren't going to see what the models were forecasting in terms of rainfall.

[Hayabusa]

Well...

TD
Issued at 19:25 UTC, 10 September 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 10 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°20' (12.3°)
E136°55' (136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[Tailspin]

Sucks that we aren't going to see what the models were forecasting in terms of rainfall.

https://weather.us/weather/4043542-guam

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rai ... ,137.693,4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlG9wPVhQVw

lots of tools here bro.

[Tailspin]

Sucks that we aren't going to see what the models were forecasting in terms of rainfall.

https://weather.us/weather/4043542-guam

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rai ... ,137.693,4
https://www.yr.no/place/Guam/Hag%C3%A5t ... ent_House/

https://i.imgur.com/bUPqOT7.png?1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlG9wPVhQVw

lots of tools here bro

[Tailspin]

whoops double up