ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Recent convection has tightened up the llc. And the curved liw level structure has expanded. Its super close. Just needs to maintian pulsed convection all day again and we could have a TD/Ts tomorrow

[Aric Dunn]

The fact that none of the models have even remotely shown this much vorticity let alone a full circulation with convection means we need to use our brains.. as the model guidance is just that Guidance.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Aric, the drastic changes we have seen in just the past 6-12 hours just goes to show how quickly things in the basin can change. The vorticity at 850 mb with this system was always quite impressive the past couple of days. However, dry air was so dominant over the system. But, now that is apparently changing obviously with this morning's developments.

[Aric Dunn]

And that trough should be much more amplified at this point. timing-wise with the current ridge strength and placement would put this into the gulf before and northward motion. we might even see some WSW motion today and tomorrow if this deep convection can expand.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah Aric, the drastic changes we have seen in just the past 6-12 hours just goes to show how quickly things in the basin can change. The vorticity st 850 mb with this system was always quite impressive the past couple of days. However, dry air was so dominant over the system. But, now that is apparently changing obviously with this morning's developments.

yeah, Everyone was writing it off... but as I mentioned yesterday and noticed the low and mid level moisture drastically increases as you approach the bahamas. I had a feeling after looking at everything yesterday and last night when I posted the loop that we were going to wake up to this being near a TD.

The shear which is being induced by the low level flow and it's forward speed should reduce as it approaches SE FL/the straights. The actual upper level and mid level winds are pretty low.

I am assuming they are going to rush as task a recon flight at some point probably in the morning.

[BobHarlem]

If this was late August you may have something here, but no way this thing does anything much.

[northjaxpro]

SHIPs forecast has me a little anxious with its low shear forecasts, which I pointed out a bit earlier. This syatem could surprise I am not just throwing this out there. Conditions look rather conducive the next few days for this system to possibly get its act together!

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: SHIPs forecast has me a little anxious with its low shear forecasts, which I pointed out a bit earlier. This syatem could surprise I am not just throwing this out there. Conditions look rather conducive the next few days for this system to possibly get its act together!

and especially if the ridging holds and the trough does not dig any more and this gets into the gulf conditions look very good.

if you remember from mid week last week the GFS had this wave bomb out in the eastern gulf on one run..

There are currently a number of hot towers that keep firing off where the center would likely tighten up. If they can maintain or at least keep pulsing we could easily see a TD.

[NDG]

[HURRICANELONNY]

Every year they talk about waves soaking south fl. and poof. Nothing happens and it dries up. Don't think much of this wave either. Just something for the news to hype early in the season.

[Tailspin]

Statistical modeling thinks North Carolina is @ (25%) for landfall @ 6.0 days if
if anything does form.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:


Location: 23.7°N 71.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1014 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1016 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[TheStormExpert]

Every year they talk about waves soaking south fl. and poof. Nothing happens and it dries up. Don't think much of this wave either. Just something for the news to hype early in the season.

That’s not always the case, tropical waves are nothing more than an area of disorganized showers and storms. Just enough to enhance the summertime rain activity for a day or two, usually never get a washout with a passing tropical wave or disturbance in this case.

[TheStormExpert]

This is where “we’re lucky it wasn’t September” comes in to play.

And yes, I’m bored too NDG! Hoping for an uptick in activity sooner or later.

[SouthDadeFish]

The main prohibitive factor for TC genesis appears to be the relatively dry air (~40-50% RH in mid-troposphere). This dry air is causing the convection to be more short-lived in nature, which makes it difficult to focus vorticity in one particular area. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, but I am skeptical we will see genesis.

[boca]

Let’s see if the atmosphere can moisten up for this area,and I saw this area a few days ago when it was north of Puerto Rico.

[Aric Dunn]

The main prohibitive factor for TC genesis appears to be the relatively dry air (~40-50% RH in mid-troposphere). This dry air is causing the convection to be more short-lived in nature, which makes it difficult to focus vorticity in one particular area. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, but I am skeptical we will see genesis.

Yeah It was even drier yesterday farther east. the closer it gets to the bahamas and florida the less dry it becomes. it still has some work to do for sure. But in terms of low level structure and organization. it has most of the hard stuff done lol.. just needs some more moisture.

[N2FSU]

Definitely seems to be dry air is the only thing really holding this back. Strong vorticity, and shear maps look quite favorable.

[TheStormExpert]

The main prohibitive factor for TC genesis appears to be the relatively dry air (~40-50% RH in mid-troposphere). This dry air is causing the convection to be more short-lived in nature, which makes it difficult to focus vorticity in one particular area. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, but I am skeptical we will see genesis.

Yeah It was even drier yesterday farther east. the closer it gets to the bahamas and florida the less dry it becomes. it still has some work to do for sure. But in terms of low level structure and organization. it has most of the hard stuff done lol.. just needs some more moisture.

I’ve noticed that the atmosphere in the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico is the most moist and unstable in the Atlantic basin for what it’s worth.

[Aric Dunn]

The main prohibitive factor for TC genesis appears to be the relatively dry air (~40-50% RH in mid-troposphere). This dry air is causing the convection to be more short-lived in nature, which makes it difficult to focus vorticity in one particular area. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, but I am skeptical we will see genesis.

Yeah It was even drier yesterday farther east. the closer it gets to the bahamas and florida the less dry it becomes. it still has some work to do for sure. But in terms of low level structure and organization. it has most of the hard stuff done lol.. just needs some more moisture.

I’ve noticed that the atmosphere in the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico is the most moist and unstable in the Atlantic basin for what it’s worth.

Convection is doing far better today then it was yesterday. hot towers continue to maintain around the center. It wont take long to lower the pressure enough to get more convergence if this continues.