ATL: KAREN - Models

[drezee]

I don't need anymore "fun" tracks that feature a stalling hurricane near the Bahamas...

Amen to that...hopefully this is one of those one offs..back OTS on 0z

Hey 57, we've been on here for many years. I realize we did a bad thing. It is like when play-by-play says the kicker hadn't missed all year...they miss the kick. Well, the Euro just said "hold my beer" to all of us...

[boca]

The models showed a hit here in South Florida from Dorian and now with Karen it shows a bend west and like always as of late these storms just miss us. Karen might take a turn to the north we will luck out again.

[SouthFLTropics]

The models showed a hit here in South Florida from Dorian and now with Karen it shows a bend west and like always as of late these storms just miss us. Karen might take a turn to the north we will luck out again.

From your lips to God’s ears my friend!!! While we’re at it let’s pray it misses the Bahamas as well.

[Ivanhater]

Very extreme GFS and Euro solutions showing Karen getting into the Gulf, let's see what 12Z shows.

doesn't look extreme to me, looks very possible based on the ridging in place

It is very extreme that SW movement from 00Z Euro anytime of year

[Ivanhater]

Very extreme GFS and Euro solutions showing Karen getting into the Gulf, let's see what 12Z shows.

doesn't look extreme to me, looks very possible based on the ridging in place

It is very extreme that SW movement from 00Z Euro anytime of year

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very extreme GFS and Euro solutions showing Karen getting into the Gulf, let's see what 12Z shows.

doesn't look extreme to me, looks very possible based on the ridging in place

It is very extreme that SW movement from 00Z Euro anytime of year

Extreme but not unheard of. Joaquin went WSW in the Bahamas in October.

[jfk08c]

I think if the early model runs taught us anything about Dorian and Humberto, we should take these model runs all with a huge grain of salt. Things can and will change this far out. And perhaps most importantly, the models so far this year have over predicted the strength of 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic and the US has been spared any significant impact from MDR storms. Now will the upper level pattern finally flip to one of strong ridging? Seems unlikely but you never know...

Unfortunately, these model runs are some of the only predictors we have for these storms. If tracks have it barreling towards Florida, I'd rather be prepared than caught sleeping because of the ridge trends.

[Blown Away]

The models showed a hit here in South Florida from Dorian and now with Karen it shows a bend west and like always as of late these storms just miss us. Karen might take a turn to the north we will luck out again.

Climatology heavily favors a storm making a west turn @25N/70W during late Sept or Oct won’t impact FL/GOM, but maybe mid Atlantic... So many crazy tracks past 10 years I don’t have quite the confidence in Climo like I use to... Dorian’s track was extreme if you compare it to past tracks that moved through Bahamas and/or near FL...

[otowntiger]

I think if the early model runs taught us anything about Dorian and Humberto, we should take these model runs all with a huge grain of salt. Things can and will change this far out. And perhaps most importantly, the models so far this year have over predicted the strength of 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic and the US has been spared any significant impact from MDR storms. Now will the upper level pattern finally flip to one of strong ridging? Seems unlikely but you never know...

Agreed- there could be a lot of attention and concern generated due to models showing something happening 5+ days out only to have it change closer in- ala Dorian- at this point it looked certain that Dorian would hit FL it was only a matter of exact location- that changed considerably. I’m convinced we will only know what happens about 2-3 days before it happens.

[NDG]

All but maybe 5 or 6 Euro ensembles turn Karen to the west by late next week. I think we will have another case here like Dorian and Humberto, any reformation further NE or more northerly track will dictate how close it gets to the Bahamas and SE US.

[NDG]

I think if the early model runs taught us anything about Dorian and Humberto, we should take these model runs all with a huge grain of salt. Things can and will change this far out. And perhaps most importantly, the models so far this year have over predicted the strength of 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic and the US has been spared any significant impact from MDR storms. Now will the upper level pattern finally flip to one of strong ridging? Seems unlikely but you never know...

Agreed- there could be a lot of attention and concern generated due to models showing something happening 5+ days out only to have it change closer in- ala Dorian- at this point it looked certain that Dorian would hit FL it was only a matter of exact location- that changed considerably. I’m convinced we will only know what happens about 2-3 days before it happens.

Yep, 7-10 day range forecasts can change big time. Heck even at day 5 the track is not written on stone.

[LarryWx]

I think if the early model runs taught us anything about Dorian and Humberto, we should take these model runs all with a huge grain of salt. Things can and will change this far out. And perhaps most importantly, the models so far this year have over predicted the strength of 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic and the US has been spared any significant impact from MDR storms. Now will the upper level pattern finally flip to one of strong ridging? Seems unlikely but you never know...

Excellent post! Model consensus projections almost always change significantly from this far out and especially when there is an unusual path being shown. Usually the highly unusual path this far out doesn’t verify based on my many years of tracking. There’s an old saying that you want to be in the projected path this far out because it will almost always change a good bit.

So, the good news is that despite the latest consensus suggesting a hard left and subsequent west movement all the way back to the CONUS is quite possible, there’s at least as good a chance nothing even close to that will verify. How many times this year and in others have we seen early progs of strong ridges blocking and then forcing west to this extent end up changing drastically as the days go along to where the storm instead escapes easily? So, my take right now is to keep this kind of highly unusual potentially dangerous path in mind as just a possibility but not a likelihood at least right now. Besides the path quite possibly drastically changing later and she not even getting close to the CONUS, Karen could end up very weak even if she does get close.

At this early Jerry stage, I was easily willing to lay $50 to win $10 on no CONUS hit or near miss and was saying 90% chance of no hit or near miss. As I said earlier, this is a much different situation and potentially much more dangerous than for Jerry. But, even so, I’d still consider at this early stage odds going somewhat against a hit on the CONUS. But I wouldn’t enthusiastically lay $50 to win $10. I probably wouldn’t lay more than $20 to win $10 right now. Right now, I’m going with about a 2 in 3 chance of no TC hit on the CONUS.

[rbaker55]

im not convinced of a left hook in the sw atlantic until I see a few more Euro runs. We saw with Dorian at first many tracks into Fla and into the NE GOM. As time got closer tracks went east every run until most got it right with Dorian not even striking the east coast of FL.

[sma10]

I think if the early model runs taught us anything about Dorian and Humberto, we should take these model runs all with a huge grain of salt. Things can and will change this far out. And perhaps most importantly, the models so far this year have over predicted the strength of 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic and the US has been spared any significant impact from MDR storms. Now will the upper level pattern finally flip to one of strong ridging? Seems unlikely but you never know...

Excellent post! Model consensus projections almost always change significantly from this far out and especially when there is an unusual path being shown. Usually the highly unusual path this far out doesn’t verify based on my many years of tracking. There’s an old saying that you want to be in the projected path this far out because it will almost always change a good bit.

So, the good news is that despite the latest consensus suggesting a hard left and subsequent west movement all the way back to the CONUS is quite possible, there’s at least as good a chance nothing even close to that will verify. How many times this year and in others have we seen early progs of strong ridges blocking and then forcing west to this extent end up changing drastically as the days go along to where the storm instead escapes easily? So, my take right now is to keep this kind of highly unusual potentially dangerous path in mind as just a possibility but not a likelihood at least right now. Besides the path quite possibly drastically changing later and she not even getting close to the CONUS, Karen could end up very weak even if she does get close.

At this early Jerry stage, I was easily willing to lay $50 to win $10 on no CONUS hit or near miss and was saying 90% chance of no hit or near miss. As I said earlier, this is a much different situation and potentially much more dangerous than for Jerry. But, even so, I’d still consider at this early stage odds going somewhat against a hit on the CONUS. But I wouldn’t enthusiastically lay $50 to win $10. I probably wouldn’t lay more than $20 to win $10 right now. Right now, I’m going with about a 2 in 3 chance of no TC hit on the CONUS.

What made the Jerry bet easier was that climatology and model trends agreed. With Karen there's less enthusiasm because you're betting on climatology plus the unlikelihood of models being correct this far out - a slightly more uncomfortable dynamic.

As old pros we've been here before, it's still early days for CONUS

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1175765300937187329

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF much weaker than yesterday

[Jr0d]

...... There’s an old saying that you want to be in the projected path this far out because it will almost always change a good bit.

So, the good news is that despite the latest consensus suggesting a hard left and subsequent west movement all the way back to the CONUS is quite possible, there’s at least as good a chance nothing even close to that will verify. How many times this year and in others have we seen early progs of strong ridges blocking and then forcing west to this extent end up changing drastically as the days go along to where the storm instead escapes easily? So, my take right now is to keep this kind of highly unusual potentially dangerous path in mind as just a possibility but not a likelihood at least right now. Besides the path quite possibly drastically changing later and she not even getting close to the CONUS, Karen could end up very weak even if she does get close.

At this early Jerry stage, I was easily willing to lay $50 to win $10 on no CONUS hit or near miss and was saying 90% chance of no hit or near miss. As I said earlier, this is a much different situation and potentially much more dangerous than for Jerry. But, even so, I’d still consider at this early stage odds going somewhat against a hit on the CONUS. But I wouldn’t enthusiastically lay $50 to win $10. I probably wouldn’t lay more than $20 to win $10 right now. Right now, I’m going with about a 2 in 3 chance of no TC hit on the CONUS.

Those were the same odds I gave Karen early this morning when discussing her with my girlfriend.

We were looking at models and said I would feel good about a miss if the NAVGEM has it hitting us(Key West). Of course that model keeps Karen OTS after doing some weird dance with Jerry....so there's that.

Right now it appears all the major models have Karen making a sharp west or wsw turn toward the Bahamas, Florida, and possibly Cuba.

I haven't seen the UKMET yet, definately interested off what it's output is.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z UKMET is definitely more out-to-sea by the time the turn happens, but it does show a westward turn happening.

[toad strangler]

I think if the early model runs taught us anything about Dorian and Humberto, we should take these model runs all with a huge grain of salt. Things can and will change this far out. And perhaps most importantly, the models so far this year have over predicted the strength of 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic and the US has been spared any significant impact from MDR storms. Now will the upper level pattern finally flip to one of strong ridging? Seems unlikely but you never know...

Agreed- there could be a lot of attention and concern generated due to models showing something happening 5+ days out only to have it change closer in- ala Dorian- at this point it looked certain that Dorian would hit FL it was only a matter of exact location- that changed considerably. I’m convinced we will only know what happens about 2-3 days before it happens.

Some set ups are much less intricate than others. So modeling can be very good a week out at times. So it's not a cut and clear case.

[jfk08c]

im not convinced of a left hook in the sw atlantic until I see a few more Euro runs. We saw with Dorian at first many tracks into Fla and into the NE GOM. As time got closer tracks went east every run until most got it right with Dorian not even striking the east coast of FL.

Dorian did in fact turn left, although not as sharp as Karen is predicted in the latest runs. The difference being how long it took the ridge to clear out for Dorian to make its northward turn away from Florida. This will mainly come down to how much ridging can build in, when it builds in, and how long it stays in place. Still have a long way to go on this one but let's see if it becomes a trend in subsequent runs