ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

500mb vort is displaced to the SE of the LL vorts.
Going to be tracking into high CAPE air.
Looks like it has a lot of high TPW air to work with, both in the east Carib and mid Atlantic ITCZ.

[hurricanes1234]

My wife is from Trinidad and Tobago and she got plenty pics and videos from friends and family on the islands this morning. Flooding and heavy rain plus it's a little windy. Definitely outside the norm for the weather down there. I'm unhappy that we missed it!

the pics and videos I m seeing look quite bad. There are lots of flash floods and rivers overflowing. Downtown Scarborough in Tobago is very flooded out

I suspect much of the flooding Trinidad experiences is due to the soil type there. Granted, they did get quite a lot of rain from Karen, but it just seems to flood too easily there. They've had scores of flood events over the last few years.

Yes, it floods very easily here. Heavy rain from ordinary daytime thunderstorms during the wet season is sometimes enough to cause flooding in Trinidad. Though as you say, in this case, the rainfall from Karen was long-lived and heavy.

It's a bit concerning considering that we're likely not out of the woods as yet. The St. Augustine campus of the University of the West Indies just decided to cancel all classes tomorrow. Some supermarket shelves were empty earlier this afternoon. It's good to see that people are taking this one seriously.

[tropicsPR]

Convection is increasing.

[Highteeld]

[Visioen]

Dry air to its north isn't helping.
But as stated by others, maintaining convection now.

[Hammy]

Judging by the cloud flow, decapitation is imminent as the northern edge of the high clouds are about to be shoved quite a bit southwest.

[abajan]

the pics and videos I m seeing look quite bad. There are lots of flash floods and rivers overflowing. Downtown Scarborough in Tobago is very flooded out

I suspect much of the flooding Trinidad experiences is due to the soil type there. Granted, they did get quite a lot of rain from Karen, but it just seems to flood too easily there. They've had scores of flood events over the last few years.

Yes, it floods very easily here. Heavy rain from ordinary daytime thunderstorms during the wet season is sometimes enough to cause flooding in Trinidad. Though as you say, in this case, the rainfall from Karen was long-lived and heavy.

It's a bit concerning considering that we're likely not out of the woods as yet. The St. Augustine campus of the University of the West Indies just decided to cancel all classes tomorrow. Some supermarket shelves were empty earlier this afternoon. It's good to see that people are taking this one seriously.

Indeed. In his latest video, Mark Sudduth (who happens to be a Storm2K member) says it should definitely be taken seriously, despite its dishevelled appearance. He mentions the flooding in T&T too. Hopefully, what the Euro model shows a week from today doesn't pan out. That part of the Bahamas couldn't handle that at this stage!

[gfsperpendicular]

Karen is a very interesting storm! There is a swirl north of the storm, but I can't tell if it's the LLC or just a vort that Karen spat out. Convection is definitely organizing (well, it's not very organized) around the MLC to the SSW of it. Is it possible that we see a Dorian-esque center reformation under the MLC?

[hurricanes1234]

I suspect much of the flooding Trinidad experiences is due to the soil type there. Granted, they did get quite a lot of rain from Karen, but it just seems to flood too easily there. They've had scores of flood events over the last few years.

Yes, it floods very easily here. Heavy rain from ordinary daytime thunderstorms during the wet season is sometimes enough to cause flooding in Trinidad. Though as you say, in this case, the rainfall from Karen was long-lived and heavy.

It's a bit concerning considering that we're likely not out of the woods as yet. The St. Augustine campus of the University of the West Indies just decided to cancel all classes tomorrow. Some supermarket shelves were empty earlier this afternoon. It's good to see that people are taking this one seriously.

Indeed. In his latest video, Mark Sudduth (who happens to be a Storm2K member) says it should definitely be taken seriously, despite its dishevelled appearance. He mentions the flooding in T&T too. Hopefully, what the Euro model shows a week from today doesn't pan out. That part of the Bahamas couldn't handle that at this stage!

Agreed 100%. People shouldn't look at whether the system has a name or not to decide if they should take it seriously. I recall historic flooding in 2012 which shut down the country for days and left me stranded at home for 4 days because of knee-deep mud in the street. Judging by the floods, you would think it was caused by some massive hurricane, but it was instead the result of rainfall from the outer feeder bands of the remnants of a tropical depression.

[Blown Away]

Very soon the NHC should start showing a decent left hook around day 4-5...

[Bluehawk]

Very soon the NHC should start showing a decent left hook around day 4-5...

I would say there is a beginning of that hook in the 11 PM update... Though they are not specifically talking much about it, you can see it nevertheless. They would rather say it's slowing down, than mention it veering west.

[Blown Away]

Very soon the NHC should start showing a decent left hook around day 4-5...

I would say there is a beginning of that hook in the 11 PM update... Though they are not specifically talking much about it, you can see it nevertheless. They would rather say it's slowing down, than mention it veering west.

Karen’s NHC track keeps having subtle West shifts and faster, which is opposite from Dorian where it seemed from beginning the NHC track kept shifting right and slower.

[SFLcane]

[CrazyC83]

Here's a thought: if this were to degenerate into a wave or remnant low, but models are consistent in redevelopment and winds remain tropical storm force, would they maintain advisories as "Remnants of Karen" to keep the warnings in the interim?

[gfsperpendicular]

https://i.imgur.com/7T3iXmH.png

There's our left hook.

[tropicwatch]

I describe it as a hint of a westward turn.

[chaser1]

Here's a thought: if this were to degenerate into a wave or remnant low, but models are consistent in redevelopment and winds remain tropical storm force, would they maintain advisories as "Remnants of Karen" to keep the warnings in the interim?

"Remnant and Potential Tropical Cyclone advisory number......" LOL?

[aperson]

low level circulation is really decoupled from convection again. This time it's exposed NE of the convection

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a small area of t-storms has formed over the center but that will probably get sheared off

[AJC3]

Here's a thought: if this were to degenerate into a wave or remnant low, but models are consistent in redevelopment and winds remain tropical storm force, would they maintain advisories as "Remnants of Karen" to keep the warnings in the interim?

While possible, in this case I think it's unlikely that advisories will be discontinued for two reasons: (1) Karen is about to turn NW and then N over the next day or so. Given this forward motion, it would be really hard for it to lose the ground-relative westerlies to the extent that it degenerates into an open wave. (2) Watches that are already in place for PR/USVI/BVI. No warnings are currently in effect for any of the islands, but those watches are almost certain to be upgraded to warnings at 5 AM. Because of this, they'll give Karen each and every benefit of the doubt to maintain its status as a TC. I don't think they wouldn't declare it a PTC unless it became completely devoid of any convection for 12-18 hours, and scatterometer or estimated MSW dropped below 30kt.