ATL: JERRY - Models

[Aric Dunn]

ridge much stronger on the Euro farther west and a even larger ridge coming off the east cast after 72 hours.

Still a small weakness left at 72hrs.. will it be enough ?

[drezee]

ridge much stronger on the Euro farther west and a even larger ridge coming off the east cast after 72 hours.

That's interesting...Euro turns this from sure recurve to nail biter in 24 hours

[Nuno]

Summing up this thread. Wishcastes want it to go west and stay more south. While nhc and models insist it’s going north.




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gatorcane nailed it yesterday, peeps in the united states that want tropical activity, look to the Carribean and gulf, the cape verde game is over for landfall...big ACE and cool infrared pics will still be available..Floridians, we were able to thread the needle and miss Dorian and Humberto but here comes October

Those life saving troughs may come to hurt Florida come October.

[otowntiger]

ridge much stronger on the Euro farther west and a even larger ridge coming off the east cast after 72 hours.

I bet its just a teaser. Despite the indications of the stronger ridge and further west placement early in the run I'm pretty sure that a weakness will develop or linger just in time to provide the all important and infamous escape hatch.

[Michele B]

12Z EURO Running

https://i.imgur.com/LSdWdB4.png

From this image, looks like Jerry will catch the weakness made by Humberto and follow him right on up to Bermuda!

For FL's sake, I hope so. For Bermudans, not so much.

[alienstorm]

European trending westward at 72 hrs.

[SFLcane]

[Aric Dunn]

ridge much stronger on the Euro farther west and a even larger ridge coming off the east cast after 72 hours.

That's interesting...Euro turns this from sure recurve to nail biter in 24 hours

Well most of the talk outside this forum.. is about how a recurve is much less likely.

[SFLcane]

Still recurving on the euro at 96hrs

[otowntiger]

ridge much stronger on the Euro farther west and a even larger ridge coming off the east cast after 72 hours.

That's interesting...Euro turns this from sure recurve to nail biter in 24 hours

Well most of the talk outside this forum.. is about how a recurve is much less likely.

who is saying that? Euro still recurving it well east of the Bahama's, right?

[SFLcane]

Looks like euro trended eastward not westward just to many trofs

[drezee]

Still recurving on the euro at 96hrs

It does recurve, but in a different way. I do not like the trend. This run is 12 hours faster from being a bend left. I want to see the ensembles...

[Aric Dunn]

That's interesting...Euro turns this from sure recurve to nail biter in 24 hours

Well most of the talk outside this forum.. is about how a recurve is much less likely.

who is saying that? Euro still recurving it well east of the Bahama's, right?

Number of factors.. and fwiw.. the euro has been shifting west with more ridging..

short term strength of Jerry will play a role among the ridging that will likely start filling in behind humberto. typically always underdone by models. etc..

you will start to see others bringing up the idea more and more if jerry continues this current trend..

[SFLcane]

Still recurving on the euro at 96hrs

It does recurve, but in a different way. I do not like the trend. This run is 12 hours faster from being a bend left. I want to see the ensembles...

It trended westward earlier but yeah if there is a weakness there it will still turn. Could be a sharp right turn like Humberto. Getting a bit to late in the year for anything to head to far west before being turned north

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

GFS Ens trends OTS

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS Ens trends OTS

https://i.imgur.com/XCEKida.png

They also have a weak system..

[FireRat]

Looks like a heat wave for the start of Fall in the eastern/southeast US during 9/23 - 9/26, with 80s and 90s well north for the time of year...could this be an indicator that a strong high will be offshore or near the Carolinas? this could be a big factor in the future steering of Jerry. It might be too early to assume this will likely go OTS.

[chaser1]

Summing up this thread. Wishcastes want it to go west and stay more south. While nhc and models insist it’s going north.




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gatorcane nailed it yesterday, peeps in the united states that want tropical activity, look to the Carribean and gulf, the cape verde game is over for landfall...big ACE and cool infrared pics will still be available..Floridians, we were able to thread the needle and miss Dorian and Humberto but here comes October

Agreed. In spite of the upswing in Atlantic activity, I doubt we'll see changes to the present overall steering in play. The last thing that the Bahamas or S.E. Conus would want to see is a pattern change that would essentially park a strong blocking heat ridge over far W. Atlantic and solidly westward into the S.E. United States and I highly doubt we're going to suddenly see that occur now. That would be akin to asking the Miami Dolphins defense to having to stop an opposing football team from scoring from the 1 yard-line . Unfortunately, the uptick in tropical activity does suggest an increased risk to the Lesser Antilles, the N.E. Caribbean, and probably Bermuda. Heck, after seeing Imelda spin up it wouldn't even surprise me to see another small home-grown tropical system to develop near the North or West GOM coast though given this season's penchant for cyclogenesis to largely occur north of 20N. The idea of Jerry realistically posing a real threat to florida would be highly unlikely. I highly doubt that we'll see ANY new storm tracks that will result in a further westward threat to the W. Bahamas or S.E. Conus within the upcoming couple of weeks. The set-up for Jerry could look similar to another "Hugo" type track (there's a chance it could possibly track uncomfortably close to P.R.) but an east or S.E. approach to the U.S. becomes less and less likely with time.
The season is getting a bit long in the tooth to expect another long-tracker to occur this late and track that far west. Thank heaven the Caribbean has not been this year's "hot-spot" for evolution this year, otherwise I'd be a bit concerned. Hopefully this other low latitude wave (east of Jerry?) won't turn into some "poor-man's" Hurricane Charlie but i'm just not seeing that fit within the overall pattern of storm tracks this year. I'm with jlauderdal as far as Florida is concerned. Climo during the latter part of October or November could spell a renewed threat to the N. GOM, Cuba and Florida but that's just way too far out to anticipate possible changes in the overall Long-wave steering pattern at this point. Good thing too....... a northward track by any late season storm named "Olga" just plain sounds scary.

[chaser1]

Looks like a heat wave for the start of Fall in the eastern/southeast US during 9/23 - 9/26, with 80s and 90s well north for the time of year...could this be an indicator that a strong high will be offshore or near the Carolinas? this could be a big factor in the future steering of Jerry. It might be too early to assume this will likely go OTS.

I don't think it's unreasonable to consider the Carolina'a to still be in play here.