18Z GFS keeps Dorian weak pretty much all the way, but clearly the vorticity gets split over Hispaniola and can't recover, but does move the energy over SFL...
ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18Z GFS keeps Dorian weak pretty much all the way, but clearly the vorticity gets split over Hispaniola and can't recover, but does move the energy over SFL...
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Euro/GFS/Navgem/GFS Legacy all with a track into Florida Peninsula... The important difference is Euro/GFS keep Dorian a wave after Hispaniola trip...
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Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18Z HWRF clips the SW corner of PR as a strong TS/borderline cat 1. Slips through the Mona passage, and deepens to 982 mb by 6Z Thursday. So far in the run, appears to be headed for the N coast of Hispaniola: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2518&fh=69
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Emmett_Brown wrote:18Z HWRF clips the SW corner of PR as a strong TS/borderline cat 1. Slips through the Mona passage, and deepens to 982 mb by 6Z Thursday. So far in the run, appears to be headed for the N coast of Hispaniola
Yep HWRF MUCH stronger and just north of Hispaniola:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
HWRF at 106hrs. Scary looking buzz saw.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Pretty darn uh-oh run from the HWRF. Very strong before it gets to the highest octane areas. Interestingly keeps the storm pretty small.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z HWRF... The universe is back in balance and we can all relax, the HWRF is back where is needs to be blowing up into a Major Hurricane, j/k of course...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/OdNTIN3.gif
18z HWRF... The universe is back in balance and we can all relax, the HWRF is back where is needs to be blowing up into a Major Hurricane, j/k of course...
Headed over Nassau and will miss Miami by at least 50 miles.
Recurve before the Carolinas?
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z HWRF-P
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z euro initializes it barely even closed lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Mkzt3sT.gif
18z HWRF-P
I don't like where this run from the HWRF is heading. A lot seems to be resting on how Dorian handles the dry air vs. strengthening over the next day or two.
Then threading the needle between PR and Hispaniola is something we don't often see. Let's keep this low probability because the consequences to CONUS don't look good.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
The Bahamas have to have good conditions because even the Euro and GFS that dissipate the storm try to regenerate once in the Bahamas. I'm keeping my eye on this one because of the Ukmet which does not dissipate and ramps up after Hispaniola. Ukmet occasionally sniffs things out before the others follow
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Euro is not even initializing this correctly.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z suite for the most part shifted north compared to the 12z, showing the storm more grazing Hispaniola vs. colliding head on.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Nimbus wrote:Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/OdNTIN3.gif
18z HWRF... The universe is back in balance and we can all relax, the HWRF is back where is needs to be blowing up into a Major Hurricane, j/k of course...
Headed over Nassau and will miss Miami by at least 50 miles.
Recurve before the Carolinas?
Appears heading to SFL after after Caribbean/PR/Hispaniola/SE Bahamas... But anything is subject to change this far out and I'm still pretty comfortable until GFS/Euro show something significant... If anything it may in up in GOM more than recurve before FL, based on what I'm seeing today... Either as a system or remnants IMHO...
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Euro is not even initializing this correctly.
Not the first time it’s done that.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Nimbus wrote:Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/OdNTIN3.gif
18z HWRF... The universe is back in balance and we can all relax, the HWRF is back where is needs to be blowing up into a Major Hurricane, j/k of course...
Headed over Nassau and will miss Miami by at least 50 miles.
Recurve before the Carolinas?
The GFS builds the Bermuda High ridge westward over the Carolinas and into the SE US days 5-7. So if the HWRF run went out further don’t think it would head towards the Carolinas. 150 hours GFS 500mb pressure anomalies below:
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
blp wrote:The Bahamas have to have good conditions because even the Euro and GFS that dissipate the storm try to regenerate once in the Bahamas. I'm keeping my eye on this one because of the Ukmet which does not dissipate and ramps up after Hispaniola. Ukmet occasionally sniffs things out before the others follow
The same UKMET that blew up Barry in the Gulf?
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18Z NAVY same track as the past several runs. But it has been consistently wrong before in these same situations.Takes this through Southern Florida into GOM:
First landfall:
Second:
First landfall:
Second:
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