ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

I think we are about to get a center reformation off the nw side of andros island. Storm motion is interesting up there and low level cu curvature

A center would have to form before it can reform. It's currently just a trof axis.

[NDG]

[Dean4Storms]

Don't see much of a chance for 94L until maybe well out east of the CONUS in the Atlantic down the road.

But will want to watch the Gulf down the road at the tail end of this strong longwave trough, see if anything persists.

[tolakram]

18 frames now.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1614.3543701171875&y=1036.421630859375

[NDG]

I think that only has around 20-24 hours to do something before the trough starts really digging down and it becomes elongated by deep southerly and eventually SW winds across all columns of the atmosphere. Clearly shown by the latest 06z HWRF.

[wxman57]

Still only a trof axis west of the convection. No LLC.

[BobHarlem]

Miami Long range radar loop

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_l ... Z&loop=yes



Axis, no center, still interesting though.

[SFLcane]

Probably a few scattered showers over the peninsula 12z models now show this almost bypassing florida all together. Not much of anything to the west of were best track location is

[NDG]

Still only a trof axis west of the convection. No LLC.

http://wxman57.com/images/94Lc.JPG

Can't agree with you with no surface reports on your map to the south of the latest best track position.

[NDG]

I am starting to see some NW to SE moving low level clouds just off the coast of Andros Island.
As the day goes on we will see the weak LLC move across the northern end of the Andros Island and the little closed circulation become more apparent on vis satellite loop. Is very small. IMO.

[Patrick99]

Probably a few scattered showers over the peninsula 12z models now show this almost bypassing florida all together. Not much of anything to the west of were best track location is

Of course.....anything to just keep me baking in the hot sun, it seems like the weather gods are determined to keep that up this year.

Wonder if this will make a run at TS/TS once it gets clear of Andros and in the Straits.

[GCANE]

Mid-level WV slowly eroding.
I expect to see afternoon popups over FL which will further moisten the environment.
Once the circulation gets in the middle of the Gulf Stream, this could come together.

[Aric Dunn]

Llc is clearly evident moving across central andros island

[Aric Dunn]

I am starting to see some NW to SE moving low level clouds just off the coast of Andros Island.
As the day goes on we will see the weak LLC move across the northern end of the Andros Island and the little closed circulation become more apparent on vis satellite loop. Is very small. IMO.

Yeah it is already there and well on its way. Following the convective bursts.

[NDG]

X is approximately where I think the weak small LLC is.

[SFLcane]

Regardless is running out of time the convection looks to reach the state in 6-8hrs

[Aric Dunn]

X is approximately where I think the weak small LLC is.

https://i.imgur.com/ObcSHBL.gif

Yeppers and with a lot of deep convection building and maintaining. Should have plenty of time over water.

[NDG]

More evidence with a zoomed in loop that there's a weak closed LLC over the northern end of Andros Island.

[wxman57]

Trof axis remains west of the convection. The development potential may be on Wednesday as it accelerates out to sea to the northeast off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

[Patrick99]

More evidence with a zoomed in loop that there's a weak closed LLC over the northern end of Andros Island.

The way the clouds are kinda curling in west to east over central Andros sure makes it look like that.