ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

ECMWF high-res had the center passing over eastern Puerto Rico, with possible disruption from the northeastern mountain (El Yunque - peak of 3,461 feet). It'll be interesting to see if the center does move more east, as some ensembles and other operational models have shown (and how that impacts intensity):

https://i.ibb.co/NNqnhQz/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019082800-21-1460-443.png

Also, current positional bias shows the GFS and ECMWF have been slightly SW biased in the short range (partly attributed to yesterday's center reformation):
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/biaZ.png

Yes the Euro has been slightly left biased on its short term, there is no way Dorian will track directly over PR, it will have to turn back to almost WNW right now.

The Euro is way off on its short term track which will definitely affect the long term. Based on Dorian being N/E of most models a northern track into NE FL/GA or even the Carolinas is looking more possible.

Not really. Being more north short term will not shift the track north at all in this setup. If anything, it will lead to south shifts.

[GCANE]

Radar shows pretty much a closed eye with convection deepening quickly on the south quad.

[GCANE]

Looking at a little cell firing directly south of PR.
Appears cyclonic flows extends pretty high up in altitude.

[NDG]

Yes the Euro has been slightly left biased on its short term, there is no way Dorian will track directly over PR, it will have to turn back to almost WNW right now.

The Euro is way off on its short term track which will definitely affect the long term. Based on Dorian being N/E of most models a northern track into NE FL/GA or even the Carolinas is looking more possible.

Not really. Being more north short term will not shift the track north at all in this setup. If anything, it will lead to south shifts.

Yep, is has nothing to do with the long term track, good example look at the UKMET and ICON models which not been left biased at all yet they continue to be on the left side of the tracks on the long term.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1166690554903707648

[KWT]

https://i.imgur.com/cuLeKtu.png

Given the current recon fix of Dorian, trajectory would need to be ~300 degrees or WNW to make landfall over eastern PR.

https://i.imgur.com/AlT72nB.png

Well we will see how the center moves according to recon. We should also be getting at least a decent idea of track based off of radar at this point as well.

Could well be a hurricane today as well if it does avoid PR.

Also worth remembering for track a stronger system will likely bend back to the west harder, the models show this as the stronger runs have tended to be more to the south of the weaker runs.

[kevin mathis]

Yes the Euro has been slightly left biased on its short term, there is no way Dorian will track directly over PR, it will have to turn back to almost WNW right now.

The Euro is way off on its short term track which will definitely affect the long term. Based on Dorian being N/E of most models a northern track into NE FL/GA or even the Carolinas is looking more possible.

Not really. Being more north short term will not shift the track north at all in this setup. If anything, it will lead to south shifts.

Thank you, I was just about to post that the long term forecast has very little to do with anything happening now. It's about interacting with ULL that is now moving as modeled (in fact Dorian may interact sooner with said ULL than forecast, which would begin to pinwheel the storm around to the wnw sooner.) The high will set up north of the storm, where it sets up. It will keep it moving west to wnw regardless of where it is now.

[USTropics]

Interesting considering 2004 has been one of the top analogs for this season:
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1166690928758681600

[Kazmit]

IMO I think the center will stay over water and go just east of Puerto Rico.



Credit to NotSparta for the graphic.

[wx98]

Just looking at radar, this thing is gonna have to work hard to even make St. Croix, may be east of there or just skirt it. Definitely not hitting PR.

[knotimpaired]

It just started raining in Vieques. Is there an Observations thread yet?

[cjrciadt]

IMO I think the center will stay over water and go just east of Puerto Rico.

https://i.imgur.com/KefUoKs.png

Credit to NotSparta for the graphic.

Wont even touch Vieques at this rate

[wx98]

A special marine warning was just issued for the USVI for >40 knot squalls and waterspouts, which isn’t surprising.

[ObsessedMiami]

NWS Miami is calling for Tropical Storm conditions possible on Saturday night and Sunday in their graphical forecast

[EquusStorm]

Amazing how just a couple days ago it was supposed to bury itself in the Dominican Republic and now might pass through the Virgin Islands. I think the torn apart by mountains solution is pretty much negated.

[AdamFirst]

Amazing how just a couple days ago it was supposed to bury itself in the Dominican Republic and now might pass through the Virgin Islands. I think the torn apart by mountains solution is pretty much negated.

Sure looks like it, unfortunately. Good for PR to minimize potential impacts, bad for whoever down the road.

[wx98]

Recon back in for a NW-SE pass shortly

[AdamFirst]

Core of the storm looks to be approaching St. Croix. Radar motion looks like center will go over the island. Look for observations there within the next few hours.

[NDG]

I wish I could find my post from 2 or 3 days ago in which I forecasted Dorian to go north of the Greater Antilles after coming through the Windward Islands based on the way most tropical disturbances/waves have been doing all season long so far.

[hurricaneCW]

The Euro is way off on its short term track which will definitely affect the long term. Based on Dorian being N/E of most models a northern track into NE FL/GA or even the Carolinas is looking more possible.

Not really. Being more north short term will not shift the track north at all in this setup. If anything, it will lead to south shifts.

Yep, is has nothing to do with the long term track, good example look at the UKMET and ICON models which not been left biased at all yet they continue to be on the left side of the tracks on the long term.

It's going to be harder to go far west even with the pivot if the storm is further N/E to start. Also the ridge may only extend to 75-77W with a hard edge on it which could lead it to slow down and curve just offshore like the GFS showed.

Erin's MLC is also amplifying the weakness.

If the ridge ends up being stronger then yes this will probably impact Florida.