ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

Dorian will be a cat 4 or 5 when it nears the Bahamas. Anywhere from Florida to NC needs to be on high alert.

How do you know for sure? That’s quite a bold statement to make.

I've been doing this for almost 20 years now, experience and using the scientific tools we have available makes it quite clear this is going to be a cat 4/5 at peak strength. I also like the GFS idea of a last minute slow down and curve north towards the Carolinas but anyone from Florida to NC needs to watch this extremely closely since it's highly probable someone in this region will be dealing with a major hurricane.

[cjrciadt]

Dorian will be a cat 4 or 5 when it nears the Bahamas. Anywhere from Florida to NC needs to be on high alert.

How do you know for sure? That’s quite a bold statement to make.

The way things are going, it’s a decent bet. Cat 5 is probably a stretch though.

A major is almost a lock unless it goes into numerous EWRCs.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'd say anyone from Miami to Charleston needs to be paying attention here

[AutoPenalti]

south florida out of the woods?

Based on what exactly?

[USTropics]

Judging by the radar, there is chance it will pass just east of PR. Those mountains were the main inhibitor of strengthening in the forecast and the storm may completely miss them.

Not looking good at all this weekend. I've had a bad feeling about this storm.

ECMWF high-res had the center passing over eastern Puerto Rico, with possible disruption from the northeastern mountain (El Yunque - peak of 3,461 feet). It'll be interesting to see if the center does move more east, as some ensembles and other operational models have shown (and how that impacts intensity):



Also, current positional bias shows the GFS and ECMWF have been slightly SW biased in the short range (partly attributed to yesterday's center reformation):

[GCANE]

RECON VORTEX:
Circular Eye, 22 mile diameter, open on the east.
1002mb
17.09N 16.01W
3C Warm Core at 850mb

[Aric Dunn]

Judging by the radar, there is chance it will pass just east of PR. Those mountains were the main inhibitor of strengthening in the forecast and the storm may completely miss them.

Not looking good at all this weekend. I've had a bad feeling about this storm.

ECMWF high-res had the center passing over eastern Puerto Rico, with possible disruption from the northeastern mountain (El Yunque - peak of 3,461 feet). It'll be interesting to see if the center does move more east, as some ensembles and other operational models have shown (and how that impacts intensity):

https://i.ibb.co/NNqnhQz/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019082800-21-1460-443.png

Also, current positional bias shows the GFS and ECMWF have been slightly SW biased in the short range (partly attributed to yesterday's center reformation):
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/biaZ.png

That and its present position and motion is right of all the guidence. Might barely scrape st croix. Presebt course would barely put the west half of the circ over PR. Going to be interesting

[Jr0d]

Going to be watching this closely down here in Key West. My parents are in Cocoa Beach and I asked if they have an evacuation plan this morning.

Not giving my self the all clear down here yet because In have seen many storms take the WSW dive if they ridging sets up that way.

Sadly on the Cocoa Beach community forum many people are acting unconcerned because of last night's shift to the north and yesterdays prediction of a tropical storm.

[GCANE]

[abajan]

south florida out of the woods?

Nope. Please watch this then share it with everyone you know who may be in harm's way.

[CronkPSU]

Going to be watching this closely down here in Key West. My parents are in Cocoa Beach and I asked if they have an evacuation plan this morning.

Not giving my self the all clear down here yet because In have seen many storms take the WSW dive if they ridging sets up that way.

Sadly on the Cocoa Beach community forum many people are acting unconcerned because of last night's shift to the north and yesterdays prediction of a tropical storm.

if any of them were watching the Orlando news stations last night, doesn't surprise me, they kept talking about northern shifts and just a strong tropical storms...kept saying the euro was the outliner

[cjrciadt]

Going to be watching this closely down here in Key West. My parents are in Cocoa Beach and I asked if they have an evacuation plan this morning.

Not giving my self the all clear down here yet because In have seen many storms take the WSW dive if they ridging sets up that way.

Sadly on the Cocoa Beach community forum many people are acting unconcerned because of last night's shift to the north and yesterdays prediction of a tropical storm.

if any of them were watching the Orlando news stations last night, doesn't surprise me, they kept talking about northern shifts and just a strong tropical storms...kept saying the euro was the outliner

WFTV a bit more concered. Just looking at radar Dorian will not even brush Vieques. Maybe 25 to 50 miles East?!?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well looking at the WV loops this morning and how the ULL is now moving (vs. it's modeled position as of yesterday), it looks like a wrinkle was introduced by Erin. Eric is stronger and Dorian is stronger. Dorian also did not turn WNW and thus will miss PR to the East as I though yesterday, however the shear won't be in place now. Together they have teamed up ( almost the same central pressures) to move the ULL westward much quicker and keep it squeezed and moving west. This looks like it will provide an outflow enhancement all the way to near the FL coast. Also Erin's outflow moisture will be used by Dorian to strengthen and seems to take dry air out of the picture.

None of this is good for the US East coast. The track is better for PR but not the intensity. Given the synoptic setup and all the variables as to angles of the coastline etc. those calling for preparations from S Fl. to the Carolinas are still 100% correct. Today and tomorrow will be interesting to say the least.

[NDG]

Judging by the radar, there is chance it will pass just east of PR. Those mountains were the main inhibitor of strengthening in the forecast and the storm may completely miss them.

Not looking good at all this weekend. I've had a bad feeling about this storm.

ECMWF high-res had the center passing over eastern Puerto Rico, with possible disruption from the northeastern mountain (El Yunque - peak of 3,461 feet). It'll be interesting to see if the center does move more east, as some ensembles and other operational models have shown (and how that impacts intensity):

https://i.ibb.co/NNqnhQz/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019082800-21-1460-443.png

Also, current positional bias shows the GFS and ECMWF have been slightly SW biased in the short range (partly attributed to yesterday's center reformation):
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/biaZ.png

Yes the Euro has been slightly left biased on its short term, there is no way Dorian will track directly over PR, it will have to turn back to almost WNW right now.

[GCANE]

Feeder band is bringing in a big-ass tower into the circulation.

[Jr0d]

Going to be watching this closely down here in Key West. My parents are in Cocoa Beach and I asked if they have an evacuation plan this morning.

Not giving my self the all clear down here yet because In have seen many storms take the WSW dive if they ridging sets up that way.

Sadly on the Cocoa Beach community forum many people are acting unconcerned because of last night's shift to the north and yesterdays prediction of a tropical storm.

if any of them were watching the Orlando news stations last night, doesn't surprise me, they kept talking about northern shifts and just a strong tropical storms...kept saying the euro was the outliner

With so many near misses of the last 20+ years, I can see why some get complacent. Definitely irresponsible on the TV Mets at this stage to downplay it.

I guarantee they will be singing a different time tonight and me tomorrow.

We have a big decision to make. My step daughter is supposed to be at her dad's in West Palm this weekend. I'm thinking it may be safer to keep her in Key West.

[USTropics]

https://i.imgur.com/cuLeKtu.png

Given the current recon fix of Dorian, trajectory would need to be ~300 degrees or WNW to make landfall over eastern PR.

[hurricaneCW]

Judging by the radar, there is chance it will pass just east of PR. Those mountains were the main inhibitor of strengthening in the forecast and the storm may completely miss them.

Not looking good at all this weekend. I've had a bad feeling about this storm.

ECMWF high-res had the center passing over eastern Puerto Rico, with possible disruption from the northeastern mountain (El Yunque - peak of 3,461 feet). It'll be interesting to see if the center does move more east, as some ensembles and other operational models have shown (and how that impacts intensity):

https://i.ibb.co/NNqnhQz/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019082800-21-1460-443.png

Also, current positional bias shows the GFS and ECMWF have been slightly SW biased in the short range (partly attributed to yesterday's center reformation):
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/biaZ.png

Yes the Euro has been slightly left biased on its short term, there is no way Dorian will track directly over PR, it will have to turn back to almost WNW right now.

The Euro is way off on its short term track which will definitely affect the long term. Based on Dorian being N/E of most models a northern track into NE FL/GA or even the Carolinas is looking more possible.

[abajan]

https://i.imgur.com/cuLeKtu.png

Given the current recon fix of Dorian, trajectory would need to be ~300 degrees or WNW to make landfall over eastern PR.

Not terribly comforting to those in the USVI and BVI.

[GCANE]

https://i.imgur.com/cuLeKtu.png

Given the current recon fix of Dorian, trajectory would need to be ~300 degrees or WNW to make landfall over eastern PR.