ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

The problem with that impressive outflow Dorian had yesterday - it seems it was enough to weaken/push away that ULL that was going to shear the storm

I never bought into the idea that the ULL was going to shear Dorian that much, pattern is not the same any more over the Caribbean from earlier in the month.

[NDG]

Dorian is definitely stronger this morning. 72 knot flight level winds.

114600 1714N 06352W 8433 01530 //// +165 //// 150049 062 054 001 01
114630 1715N 06351W 8428 01545 0092 +155 //// 144065 072 051 003 05
114700 1716N 06350W 8442 01534 0099 +147 //// 143059 060 049 008 01
114730 1717N 06348W 8435 01551 //// +138 //// 143058 059 044 004 01
114800 1718N 06347W 8435 01558 0116 +151 //// 141055 058 042 006 01
114830 1720N 06346W 8433 01564 0121 +146 //// 137053 055 041 005 05
114900 1721N 06345W 8429 01570 0113 +170 //// 150050 054 044 015 05
114930 1722N 06343W 8445 01556 0124 +166 +166 152049 055 048 014 03

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah very tight gradient. Producing hurricane winds. This just first pass strongest convection has not been sampled yet.

[hurricaneCW]

Recon supports a 65mph storm.

NHC could go 70mph at 11am if current trends continue.

[abajan]

Winds still at 60 mph in the intermediate advisory. No surprise there. In my experience, unless there's are clear indications of RI occurring, they hardly ever bump up the winds in the intermediates. It just seems that way.

[NDG]

Yeah very tight gradient. Producing hurricane winds.

I wonder if Dorian will set a record for highest surface pressure for a hurricane when it becomes one

[Jr0d]

Judging by the radar, there is chance it will pass just east of PR. Those mountains were the main inhibitor of strengthening in the forecast and the storm may completely miss them.

Not looking good at all this weekend. I've had a bad feeling about this storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah very tight gradient. Producing hurricane winds.

I wonder if Dorian will set a record for highest surface pressure for a hurricane when it becomes one

I know right.. they will probably find it.

They have not sampled the strongest convection yet.

[SouthDadeFish]

Dorian is certainly intensifying this morning. Not at hurricane intensity yet, but recent observations suggest Dorian is not far from it. This is not good news for those islands (especially Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) in the immediate path of the storm. I fear the poor short term track forecasts may have caught residents a bit off-guard.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at radar the last hour.. it might even go east of St Croix.

[txwatcher91]

Dorian will be a cat 4 or 5 when it nears the Bahamas. Anywhere from Florida to NC needs to be on high alert.

[TheStormExpert]

Dorian will be a cat 4 or 5 when it nears the Bahamas. Anywhere from Florida to NC needs to be on high alert.

How do you know for sure? That’s quite a bold statement to make.

[GCANE]

They hit 30 mm/hr rain rate on the NE of the CoC.
Radar indicates heavier cells on the west quad.
So, my extrapolation would indicate those cells are at rain rate levels that would support development and maintenance of a Cat 1 system.

[Aric Dunn]

It would have to turn wnw to go over PR. And probably barely even scrape st croix. Wont be any weakening from land interaction anymore..

[AutoPenalti]

Dorian will be a cat 4 or 5 when it nears the Bahamas. Anywhere from Florida to NC needs to be on high alert.

How do you know for sure? That’s quite a bold statement to make.

Doesn’t need to be bold when you see how conducive conditions are in the Bahamas.
Cat 5 might be a bit too much though, who knows.

The way this has been able to maintain itself even with dry air shows this can be a powerful engine with the right conditions.

[Yellow Evan]

Dorian will be a cat 4 or 5 when it nears the Bahamas. Anywhere from Florida to NC needs to be on high alert.

How do you know for sure? That’s quite a bold statement to make.

The way things are going, it’s a decent bet. Cat 5 is probably a stretch though.

[Ian2401]

south florida out of the woods?

[GCANE]

Next microwave pass could be the dreaded pink donut.

[NDG]

south florida out of the woods?

One word: no

[cjrciadt]

south florida out of the woods?

Nope!! You can call that ... on Sunday. Not today! Unless it is making landfall, which might be Monday.