ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

so the gfs has come back to reality, for now. the fact that the euro came so far south and the gfs is caving should put everyone on the ec of florida, key largo to jax in prep mode, save yourself the trouble, get supplies today and avoid the lines...i look for a 50 mile south shift in the hurricane track and a continued increase in the intensity forecast, dont see anything that keep this below a 2

[Aric Dunn]

Building that eyewall..

East through south looks closed but lacking deep convection.

[NDG]

You can tell the atmosphere has been changing into a non-El Nino state when Dorian has had very little windshear while on the MDR while TS Chantal and now Erin had to fight windshear in the Subtropical Atlantic. Got to love how challenging season forecasts have been this decade.
The way the models have been trending Dorian will add some very nice ACE to the Atlantic basin over the next few days, unfortunately.

[lando]

so the gfs has come back to reality, for now. the fact that the euro came so far south and the gfs is caving should put everyone on the ec of florida, key largo to jax in prep mode, save yourself the trouble, get supplies today and avoid the lines...i look for a 50 mile south shift in the hurricane track and a continued increase in the intensity forecast, dont see anything that keep this below a 2

I don’t think it’s good to say the GFS “caved” because it’s 00z and 06z operational runs are actually very similar. No Florida landfall, north to northe east recurve scraping the east coast.
The gfs legacy 06z is quite different than 00z and more inline with the euro but not as far south as uk

[Bocadude85]

so the gfs has come back to reality, for now. the fact that the euro came so far south and the gfs is caving should put everyone on the ec of florida, key largo to jax in prep mode, save yourself the trouble, get supplies today and avoid the lines...i look for a 50 mile south shift in the hurricane track and a continued increase in the intensity forecast, dont see anything that keep this below a 2

I don’t think it’s good to say the GFS “caved” because it’s 00z and 06z operational runs are actually very similar. No Florida landfall, north to northe east recurve scraping the east coast.
The gfs legacy 06z is quite different than 00z and more inline with the euro but not as far south as uk

The 06z GFS landfalls in South Carolina, the 0z run had Dorian off Cape Hatteras, that’s a 200 mile southwest shift, I’d say the GFS is slowly coming into line with other models

[jlauderdal]

so the gfs has come back to reality, for now. the fact that the euro came so far south and the gfs is caving should put everyone on the ec of florida, key largo to jax in prep mode, save yourself the trouble, get supplies today and avoid the lines...i look for a 50 mile south shift in the hurricane track and a continued increase in the intensity forecast, dont see anything that keep this below a 2

I don’t think it’s good to say the GFS “caved” because it’s 00z and 06z operational runs are actually very similar. No Florida landfall, north to northe east recurve scraping the east coast.
The gfs legacy 06z is quite different than 00z and more inline with the euro but not as far south as uk

fair enough, lets see how the next two runs of the gfs resolve the system, it would be a major win for the gfs if dorian never touched florida and sniffed out the ridge breaking down while the euro sees a strengthing ridge

[hurricaneCW]

He's going to roll over the Virgin Islands and skirt or pass just east of PR, not good if you were hoping for PR to disrupt the system. Good for PR as they'll avoid the worst of it. Bad for the SE US as it'll likely mean a stronger system, maybe even a major.

[ronjon]

Tropical storm force winds now extend up to 60 miles from the center - 15 miles farther than stated in the 11 PM and 2 AM updates.

Yes Dorian is growing in size. Now most globals are increasing its size with later intensity forecasts and overall convective field has grown the last two days.

[lando]

One positive note is that models are showing a slower system,’which will allow for more prep and evac time for east coast of Florida as the system may arrive later than original thought

It’s safe to say thousands of people that live along the potential path have never experienced a storm like this before, as it’s been 15 years since Florida had a strike from the east like this... and many will not take it seriously. Get gas now, and order your water and batteries on Amazon! It will probably come from my building and arrive 1-2 days. Also won’t have to carry UT around and fight the lines! Get it delivered to your door

[Aric Dunn]

so the gfs has come back to reality, for now. the fact that the euro came so far south and the gfs is caving should put everyone on the ec of florida, key largo to jax in prep mode, save yourself the trouble, get supplies today and avoid the lines...i look for a 50 mile south shift in the hurricane track and a continued increase in the intensity forecast, dont see anything that keep this below a 2

I don’t think it’s good to say the GFS “caved” because it’s 00z and 06z operational runs are actually very similar. No Florida landfall, north to northe east recurve scraping the east coast.
The gfs legacy 06z is quite different than 00z and more inline with the euro but not as far south as uk

fair enough, lets see how the next two runs of the gfs resolve the system, it would be a major win for the gfs if dorian never touched florida and sniffed out the ridge breaking down while the euro sees a strengthing ridge

Its not the ridge breaking down.. its the mid to upper low that the gfs does not move out of the way and weaken that forces dorian farther north which then causes the ridging to break down.
The ridge does not just spontaneously weaken without a reason. There is no trough to speak of nothing to weaken the ridge excpet dorian being forced to move around a much larger mid to upper low into the ridging. Which weakens it then the door starts to open.

And given that dorian is farther east again the gfs solution is becoming even more of an outlier.

[jlauderdal]

I don’t think it’s good to say the GFS “caved” because it’s 00z and 06z operational runs are actually very similar. No Florida landfall, north to northe east recurve scraping the east coast.
The gfs legacy 06z is quite different than 00z and more inline with the euro but not as far south as uk

fair enough, lets see how the next two runs of the gfs resolve the system, it would be a major win for the gfs if dorian never touched florida and sniffed out the ridge breaking down while the euro sees a strengthing ridge

Its not the ridge breaking down.. its the mid to upper low that the gfs does not move out of the way and weaken that forces dorian farther north which then causes the ridging to break down.
The ridge does not just spontaneously weaken without a reason. There is no trough to speak of nothing to weaken the ridge excpet dorian being forced to move around a much larger mid to upper low into the ridging. Which weakens it then the door starts to open.

And given that dorian is farther east again the gfs solution is becoming even more of an outlier.

you say its not the ridge breaking down than you say "causes the ridging to break down". we are talking the same thing so lets simplify it, the gfs has an escape route, the euro doesnt...we both agree that escape route wont be there and the EC of florida is in jeopardy of a hit and i will take it a step further, there will be another landfall somewhere on the gulf coast, florida isnt exactly the premier shredder in the atlantic basin, katrinas journey over the everglades did next to nothing to reduce its intensity

[ObsessedMiami]

If you are here because you are a “weather weenie” and find it fascinating to watch this play out in real time, this is compelling stuff.
If you are a rare visitor and just looking for some guidance if you have to prep where you are, you would be better off to just go buy your supplies (which you should have anyway, really), check the NHC advisories and come back in 24 hours. Things are really up in the air until Dorian gets past PR and the upper air situation becomes clearer. The curious visitor, depending on when they checked in in the last 24, could either think their area is clear or under the gun, then check back in 3 hours and find the opposite.
Take everything with a grain of salt at this point and if you live on the east coast of Fl, whether you are in the five day cone or not at this point, get things in order. Just my two cents. Because, as history has shown us, we will start having many more eyes on these forums in the next five days.

[ObsessedMiami]

fair enough, lets see how the next two runs of the gfs resolve the system, it would be a major win for the gfs if dorian never touched florida and sniffed out the ridge breaking down while the euro sees a strengthing ridge

Its not the ridge breaking down.. its the mid to upper low that the gfs does not move out of the way and weaken that forces dorian farther north which then causes the ridging to break down.
The ridge does not just spontaneously weaken without a reason. There is no trough to speak of nothing to weaken the ridge excpet dorian being forced to move around a much larger mid to upper low into the ridging. Which weakens it then the door starts to open.

And given that dorian is farther east again the gfs solution is becoming even more of an outlier.

you say its not the ridge breaking down than you say "causes the ridging to break down". we are talking the same thing so lets simplify it, the gfs has an escape route, the euro doesnt...we both agree that escape route wont be there and the EC of florida is in jeopardy of a hit and i will take it a step further, there will be another landfall somewhere on the gulf coast, florida isnt exactly the premier shredder in the atlantic basin, katrinas journey over the everglades did next to nothing to reduce its intensity

The Everglades is a close as land interaction gets to being over open water.

[Nimbus]

fair enough, lets see how the next two runs of the gfs resolve the system, it would be a major win for the gfs if dorian never touched florida and sniffed out the ridge breaking down while the euro sees a strengthing ridge

Its not the ridge breaking down.. its the mid to upper low that the gfs does not move out of the way and weaken that forces dorian farther north which then causes the ridging to break down.
The ridge does not just spontaneously weaken without a reason. There is no trough to speak of nothing to weaken the ridge excpet dorian being forced to move around a much larger mid to upper low into the ridging. Which weakens it then the door starts to open.

And given that dorian is farther east again the gfs solution is becoming even more of an outlier.

you say its not the ridge breaking down than you say "causes the ridging to break down". we are talking the same thing so lets simplify it, the gfs has an escape route, the euro doesnt...we both agree that escape route wont be there and the EC of florida is in jeopardy of a hit and i will take it a step further, there will be another landfall somewhere on the gulf coast, florida isnt exactly the premier shredder in the atlantic basin, katrinas journey over the everglades did next to nothing to reduce its intensity

Erin has come into play which is the primary cause for the model uncertainty.
Later this morning I'm going to morph together the latest runs to see how the ridge forecast is evolving.

Currently appears to be ample time for a robust ridge to build in between Erin exiting and Dorian arriving but its not ti,me to pull the trigger on the Florida forecast yet.

[GCANE]

It sure doesn't look like it's going to go over Puerto Rico at this point

I thinking it skirts the east coast.
Mid-Atlantic ridge is backing off a bit to the east.

[USTropics]

First 40 visible frames this morning:

[kevin mathis]

One positive note is that models are showing a slower system,’which will allow for more prep and evac time for east coast of Florida as the system may arrive later than original thought

It’s safe to say thousands of people that live along the potential path have never experienced a storm like this before, as it’s been 15 years since Florida had a strike from the east like this... and many will not take it seriously. Get gas now, and order your water and batteries on Amazon! It will probably come from my building and arrive 1-2 days. Also won’t have to carry UT around and fight the lines! Get it delivered to your door

Didn't know this was an advertisement thread..
You are very right. Start now...Lot of people in the possible path. Be Safe, Be Prepared, Be Good Citizens and help your fellow citizens...

[Aric Dunn]

Its looking extremely close to a hurricane on radar.. if not already there.. hints of a proto eye on IR ad well.

[GCANE]

[Mouton]

Its not the ridge breaking down.. its the mid to upper low that the gfs does not move out of the way and weaken that forces dorian farther north which then causes the ridging to break down.
The ridge does not just spontaneously weaken without a reason. There is no trough to speak of nothing to weaken the ridge excpet dorian being forced to move around a much larger mid to upper low into the ridging. Which weakens it then the door starts to open.

And given that dorian is farther east again the gfs solution is becoming even more of an outlier.

you say its not the ridge breaking down than you say "causes the ridging to break down". we are talking the same thing so lets simplify it, the gfs has an escape route, the euro doesnt...we both agree that escape route wont be there and the EC of florida is in jeopardy of a hit and i will take it a step further, there will be another landfall somewhere on the gulf coast, florida isnt exactly the premier shredder in the atlantic basin, katrinas journey over the everglades did next to nothing to reduce its intensity

Erin has come into play which is the primary cause for the model uncertainty.
Later this morning I'm going to morph together the latest runs to see how the ridge forecast is evolving.

Currently appears to be ample time for a robust ridge to build in between Erin exiting and Dorian arriving but its not ti,me to pull the trigger on the Florida forecast yet.

I notice that Erin seems to be backing up a tad this AM early. I wonder if there is a chance of a Fujiwhara effect going to take hold.

As far as the current path, I noticed yesterday and posted it looked to me that Dorian would be much closer to 65W on its way by PR while the models were calling for a left of PR plot. I opined this would lead to a stronger than Cat 1 storm as it approached CONUS especially once it hit the Gulf Stream and get super charged. I am still of that opinion as the water there is 31c and the atmosphere is water laden. My feeling is the Cat 2 is under done, perhaps 3, low 4 before it hits land somewhere. Yesterday I surmised Dorian would not get past 80W and may in fact make a rare landing in Ga. Without detail as to where and how strong the ridge will be makes that a WAG at best. If that ridge gets stronger than I originally surmised it would be, this has the potential of a Dora type landing, somewhere just south of Jax coming in from the east which would be devastating for Jax and Nassau County to the North especially with the seasonal high tides forecast. So, while this TS is what it is, the game is afoot and everyone in East Fl above say Palm Beach must be on full alert. My family is making precautionary evac plans this AM for a Sat morning departure.