ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

First time its had some sort of Eyewall presentation in the SE quad on MW imagery.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar is showing at least 3/4 closed eyewall

[Sciencerocks]

Outflow looks decent in all quads and with the development of the eye don't be surprised if we see some respectable strengthening.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like St.Croix might get a little more then they bargained for.

[GCANE]

Really intense convection.
Cold cloud tops on IR showing gravity waves.

[GCANE]

Radar is showing at least 3/4 closed eyewall

And it looks like it is closing up.

[Aric Dunn]

It sure doesn't look like it's going to go over Puerto Rico at this point

[tgenius]

So does it seem like the models are trending south a bit? Just concerned as the shifts at 11 and 5 today could open some eyes a bit. :/

[Aric Dunn]

So does it seem like the models are trending south a bit? Just concerned as the shifts at 11 and 5 today could open some eyes a bit. :/

I would expect south shifts. Especially with this being farther east today

[Bocadude85]

So does it seem like the models are trending south a bit? Just concerned as the shifts at 11 and 5 today could open some eyes a bit. :/

I would be very vigilant if I were in South Florida, the setup seems primed for a major hurricane landfall in South or Central Florida.

[tgenius]

I don’t think this is another Andrew per say based on the patterns but am wondering just how far south the end will end up if things stay as they are.

[USTropics]

Up to 100mph forecast by the NHC at 5am:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian
reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The land interaction
could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary
weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification
after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane
in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one,
especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement
with the latest models. This forecast, however, is still on the
lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments
could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth
noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the
time it nears the southeast U.S.

[chris_fit]

So does it seem like the models are trending south a bit? Just concerned as the shifts at 11 and 5 today could open some eyes a bit. :/

NHC official track at 5am Trended North.

11pm track (2 am position):



5am track:

[USTropics]

Wouldn't focus too much on the center of the track right now, confidence is very low:

Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the
ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of
Hispaniola. This motion should continue for the next few days,
taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of
Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday
and Friday. By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected
to change as the models show a ridge building over the western
Atlantic. The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and
approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. The new NHC
track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast
times trending toward the latest consensus aids. However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users
are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

[SFLcane]

So does it seem like the models are trending south a bit? Just concerned as the shifts at 11 and 5 today could open some eyes a bit. :/

I would expect south shifts. Especially with this being farther east today

I was just thinking this Aric good call. One this is certain its looking to be a monster as it nears FL.

[jlauderdal]

So does it seem like the models are trending south a bit? Just concerned as the shifts at 11 and 5 today could open some eyes a bit. :/

I would be very vigilant if I were in South Florida, the setup seems primed for a major hurricane landfall in South or Central Florida.

Im sticking with my forecast yesterday afternoon on intensity, cat 2 but major certainly possible( i stuck my neck out on that but have much better model support now). track shifts a little south which means i have to shift my southern point south although i would really like to keep the cape in play but can't do that and just increase the target area as anyone can just expand it and ultimately verify. Im going melbourne to hollywood still approx 150 mile strike zone like yesterday.

Clearly im a euro hugger and in this case i think the gfs is way too aggressive on knocking down that high plus i have seen the gfs legacy, gfs new and gfs from so many years ago just be wrong.

Everyone from Key largo to NC really needs to be ready, its only aug 28th, get water and gas(store it safely) you can always use it after the season. Happy Hurrican Hunting!

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is about to take off. First pass in about 80 min

[Aric Dunn]

The upper low to the NW of dorian is on the move. Shifting west. And with dorian farther east shear will be lower and dorian will likely have a better environment much earlier.. this will also put some more distance between dorian and the mid to upper steering around the upper low.

So we will likely see an initial more nnw to nw motion then a hard left turn and accelerate west possibly farther south than even the 00z euro.

Interesting few days ahead..

Things we will watching.

One.. ridge pumping. Because of the angle of dorian and the ridge with the upper low the ouflow from dorian is likely to aid the the expansion of the ridge west.

[NDG]

On its current heading it will miss P.R. Definitely looks like it is strengthening this morning.

[abajan]

Tropical storm force winds now extend up to 60 miles from the center - 15 miles farther than stated in the 11 PM and 2 AM updates.