ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

besides possibly being tilted somewhat. pretty clear where the center is not..

it is not near 14.5 n yet. barely above 14n

https://i.ibb.co/8jvfW1N/4.gif

Looking at your loop, did he just wobble quite a bit north in the last hour?

well that hot tower expanded out ?

I know I may sound a bit wishy washy, but I honestly suddenly now think he’s back on track near 14.5 N per the latest IR loop.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1174264116694933515

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1174330322286194688

[1900hurricane]

The centre is north of 14.5N according to ScatSat:

https://i.imgur.com/8CXjCeB.jpg

Agrees very well with recent microwave imagery. Looks like it's at almost 15ºN.

[sma10]

The centre is north of 14.5N according to ScatSat:

https://i.imgur.com/8CXjCeB.jpg

Agrees very well with recent microwave imagery. Looks like it's at almost 15ºN.

https://i.imgur.com/YAwsHT0.jpg

Then the big question becomes, will the low level center reform at a later time within the area of deep convection?

[Aric Dunn]

Well if the llc is partially exposed we should see it. ill keep looking..

but with all the convection with the very well defined Low to mid level circ. the potentially exposed llc wont last very long.

[TheStormExpert]

Up to 45kts as of the 11am advisory.

[LarryWx]

So, he is up to 14.6N at 11 AM after all. So, he is right on track.

[Aric Dunn]

So, he is up to 14.6N at 11 AM after all. So, he is right on track.

well they have the same data we have in this case. it is the best course of action to take for the time being.

same applies though. its position makes it nearly exposed. so we should see the northern side of it fairly plainly. but we dont yet. maybe a different sun angle later.

other I would wager it being farther south..

[SFLcane]

Good confidence on a turn away from land based on 11am NHC from Blake.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.

[SouthDadeFish]

So, he is up to 14.6N at 11 AM after all. So, he is right on track.

well they have the same data we have in this case. it is the best course of action to take for the time being.

same applies though. its position makes it nearly exposed. so we should see the northern side of it fairly plainly. but we dont yet. maybe a different sun angle later.

other I would wager it being farther south..

It's right under the northern edge of the recent convective burst. They claim a recent ASCAT-C pass confirmed the position, so I don't think there's too much uncertainty right now.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1174337761215688704

[jconsor]

Here is the ASCAT-C pass the NHC referred to:



Link for ASCAT-C: http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/a ... at_app.cgi

It's right under the northern edge of the recent convective burst. They claim a recent ASCAT-C pass confirmed the position, so I don't think there's too much uncertainty right now.

[otowntiger]

Good confidence on a turn away from land based on 11am NHC from Blake.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.

Yep. It seems that general track is pretty solid. They even note that their track is left of some of the guidance suite. So further eastward shifts in track seem very possible. I know their tracks change all the time but I don't think there will be a whole lot of significant shifts at this point. The NHC is pretty good when it comes to 3-5 tracks in general.

[Aric Dunn]

So, he is up to 14.6N at 11 AM after all. So, he is right on track.

well they have the same data we have in this case. it is the best course of action to take for the time being.

same applies though. its position makes it nearly exposed. so we should see the northern side of it fairly plainly. but we dont yet. maybe a different sun angle later.

other I would wager it being farther south..

It's right under the northern edge of the recent convective burst. They claim a recent ASCAT-C pass confirmed the position, so I don't think there's too much uncertainty right now.

Fair enough. I prefer a tad more confirmation in this case though. The center will likely become much more apparent over the next 12hrs anyway. and some microwaves passes will help soon too.

[Nuno]

It could get much closer to the islands, but I'm unsure how it can ultimately escape the weakness left behind by Humberto.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2019 Time : 150019 UTC
Lat : 14:36:01 N Lon : 49:12:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.4mb/ 59.0kt

[otowntiger]

It could get much closer to the islands, but I'm unsure how it can ultimately escape the weakness left behind by Humberto.

Agreed. At least at this point anyway recurve is a very good bet.

[jlauderdal]

It could get much closer to the islands, but I'm unsure how it can ultimately escape the weakness left behind by Humberto.

Agreed. At least at this point anyway recurve is a very good bet.

Nhc is too good on track these days, follow the line

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to see the first signs of an eye on visible and IR the last few frames.