ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Not just Erin causing a weakness, there is a mid/upper level feature, which I guessing is an upper level low or something. idk

[sponger]

I am preparing for a strong Cat one in the area Sunday but small storms are quite unpredictable so I am taking action. Went ahead and booked the Embassy Suites Boca for 85 a night for Sat to Mon. Can easily cancel if Dorian is a dud or misses. Bug out back up plan in place and now time to finish preps before the zoo begins. Early bird gets the supplies.

[Tailspin]

lucky its not his's call.

[sponger]

https://i.imgur.com/t26MPQ1.png

https://i.imgur.com/9Qk4rp5.png

lucky its not he's call.

Maybe a bit rusty!

[Hurricaneman]

The track of this will depend on the ULL north of Hispaniola, if it’s slower the GFS solution will come true but if it moves a little quicker a Euro, UKMET and Canadian type solution is most probable, we’ll have to see what happens the next day or 2

[Highteeld]

What is a good website to view satellite loops and be able to create .gif's to post??? Thanks...

Tropical tidbits
real earth -- this one has a ton of options, and you can sample the clouds tops

[otowntiger]

The forecast track does not concern me nearly as much as the improving environment as it approaches the Florida coast. A lot of people could be surprised that a unstacked blob on Friday could emerge as a strengthening cyclone Saturday. Already prepped the generator this Sunday. It was bought for the week long power outage for Francis in 2004, used 3 weeks later for the 4 day power outage for Jeanne, powered us for Matthew and Irma and ran my dads house for 2 weeks in SFL after Wilma. The Troy Bilt Briggs and Stratton is still ready for service.

forecast track is pretty crucial. For instance If the storm recurves and misses land altogether and by a wide margin it won’t matter how strong it gets.

[Frank2]

The good news a strengthening Dorian the past few hours means it will and is now moving more poleward towards the weakness created by Erin and the approaching trough. This is an outcome not considered only hours ago.

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/t26MPQ1.png

https://i.imgur.com/9Qk4rp5.png

lucky its not he's call.

Maybe a bit rusty!

He's always been on the conservative side as far as operational intensity data goes.

[ozonepete]

https://i.imgur.com/t26MPQ1.png

https://i.imgur.com/9Qk4rp5.png

lucky its not he's call.

Maybe a bit rusty!

He's always been on the conservative side as far as operational intensity data goes.

I know someone else like that, lol.

[sponger]

The forecast track does not concern me nearly as much as the improving environment as it approaches the Florida coast. A lot of people could be surprised that a unstacked blob on Friday could emerge as a strengthening cyclone Saturday. Already prepped the generator this Sunday. It was bought for the week long power outage for Francis in 2004, used 3 weeks later for the 4 day power outage for Jeanne, powered us for Matthew and Irma and ran my dads house for 2 weeks in SFL after Wilma. The Troy Bilt Briggs and Stratton is still ready for service.

forecast track is pretty crucial. For instance If the storm recurves and misses land altogether and by a wide margin it won’t matter how strong it gets.

At least if it does recurve but hits NC they will have additional time to prepare. Recurve out to sea is possible but I will wait for Thursday forecast and some model consensus before I get too worried. The 2 am Euro will be interesting to see if it buys the GFS Legacy solution or not.

[Highteeld]

Latest dropsonde indicates additional pressure falls. 1003 mb with 18 knots would roughly = 1001 mb

[sponger]

Latest dropsonde indicates additional pressure falls. 1003 mb with 18 knots would roughly = 1001 mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0805A-DORIAN_dropsonde17_20190828-0449.png

Already 5 mb below the HRWF initialization point. I think that is what the NHC was sniffing out, a stronger better organized storm coming off PR and able to handle the shear until it relaxes.

[Hammy]

That's quite impressive and probably the best Dorian's looked in it's entire lifespan. I'm starting to think my forecast isn't going to play out (though that hinged largely on the thought of it going over land before exiting the Caribbean)

[HDGator]

Latest dropsonde indicates additional pressure falls. 1003 mb with 18 knots would roughly = 1001 mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0805A-DORIAN_dropsonde17_20190828-0449.png

Looking at the dropsondes on tonight's flight, he seems to be handling the mega-dry air that he's been churning into through the NE Caribbean.
That doesn't bode well for what he'll do in better conditions.

[sponger]

Latest dropsonde indicates additional pressure falls. 1003 mb with 18 knots would roughly = 1001 mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0805A-DORIAN_dropsonde17_20190828-0449.png

Looking at the dropsondes on tonight's flight, he seems to be handling the mega-dry air that he's been churning into through the NE Caribbean.
That doesn't bode well for what he'll do in better conditions.

Definitely currently winning the battle with dry air. There is absolutely zero chance I am staying up to watch the Euro. IRMA kept me up for two weeks!

[Highteeld]

Latest dropsonde indicates additional pressure falls. 1003 mb with 18 knots would roughly = 1001 mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0805A-DORIAN_dropsonde17_20190828-0449.png

Looking at the dropsondes on tonight's flight, he seems to be handling the mega-dry air that he's been churning into through the NE Caribbean.
That doesn't bode well for what he'll do in better conditions.

Definitely currently winning the battle with dry air. There is absolutely zero chance I am staying up to watch the Euro. IRMA kept me up for two weeks!

that's what harvey did to me lol

[caneseddy]

60 mph winds now per 2:00 am advisory

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Eye character and shape defined for the first time in vortex message



URNT12 KNHC 280516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 28/04:49:10Z
B. 16.27 deg N 063.34 deg W
C. 850 mb 1456 m
D. 1003 mb
E. 105 deg 18 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. E21/25/20
H. 50 kt
I. 341 deg 6 nm 04:43:00Z
J. 061 deg 48 kt
K. 331 deg 5 nm 04:43:30Z
L. 42 kt
M. 185 deg 19 nm 04:56:30Z
N. 283 deg 29 kt
O. 200 deg 7 nm 04:52:30Z
P. 21 C / 1501 m
Q. 23 C / 1520 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF309 0805A DORIAN OB 31
MAX FL WIND 54 KT 078 / 11 NM 04:03:00Z



F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 210° to 30° (SSW to NNE)
G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

[EquusStorm]

Boy that structure has changed fast. Very impressive