ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TAD]

Reminder how rare to have a hurricane landfall from the SE between Vero and Jacksonville... I will always lay a bet on stronger ridge pushing Dorian S of Vero or a recurve into Carolinas or OTS... Dora is the only real example on record landfalling from the SE... Something will give from current track...

Don't forget Frances and Jeanne 2004

[Highteeld]

Should be an interesting discussion at 11 with the 18z model runs

Is Stewart on shift?

[Blown Away]

Hugo not a bad analog???

[Aric Dunn]

1003 from recon minobs. though I think they are flying high and not doing center passes. the AF plane is still not updating.

[Blown Away]

Reminder how rare to have a hurricane landfall from the SE between Vero and Jacksonville... I will always lay a bet on stronger ridge pushing Dorian S of Vero or a recurve into Carolinas or OTS... Dora is the only real example on record landfalling from the SE... Something will give from current track...

Don't forget Frances and Jeanne 2004

They were south of Vero over me in Martin County...

[Highteeld]

Looks about 1003 mb from the dropsonde (1005 mb with 17 kt wind)

[Hammy]

Dorian's barely a TS at the moment with the center on the extreme southern edge of the convection, based on recon.

[Aric Dunn]

airforce Dropsonde..

1005 mb with 17kts. so slowly deepening.

probably lower on the pass with tall the new convection.

[GTStorm]

Should be an interesting discussion at 11 with the 18z model runs

Is Stewart on shift?

Will they just throw out these latest model runs as "bad data"?

[Blown Away]

Remember Frances near PR... Ridge will either be stronger/weaker than shown now...

[galaxy401]

Looks like 45-50 knots based on the recon data. 45 kts seems more reasonable given nothing from the flight level winds.

[Highteeld]

Should be an interesting discussion at 11 with the 18z model runs

Is Stewart on shift?

Will they just throw out these latest model runs as "bad data"?

I wouldn't think he would, he's probably their most aggressive forecaster

[artist]

Couple big hot towers rotating around the center now.. just in time for recon..

coming into PR radar view

One flight has been in there for awhile. Have been posting to the recon thread.

[AtlanticWind]

https://i.imgur.com/qmZW02Y.jpg

Remember Frances near PR... Ridge will either be stronger/weaker than shown now...

Only thing is models are better now than 15 years ago. But that aside still time for adjustments

[Evil Jeremy]

Stewart is not on shift, he authored the 11am and 5pm advisories. Our chef this evening I believe is Forecaster Pasch

[beachman80]

Looking at water vapor, looks like a lot of wind shear north of Hispanola right now. Could that possibly deal a blow to Dorian in 24-48 hours?

[Michele B]

Even now without the center going over haiti you would think Dorian has a chance to strengthen into a formidable hurricane in the bahamas but the NHC keeps it as a strong TS never attaining hurricane status for whatever reason. based on the conditions across the bahamas i can't agree with that intensity forecast. Maybe 57 can come in and shade some light.

We have told you the reason. They do not want to scare anybody until we know that this storm will make it past the DR and PR in one piece. IMO this will either be a wave or a hurricane by Saturday.

Yeah, and then make landfall on Sunday?!?!

People need TIME to make preparations or evacuate. Waiting till Saturday doesn't leave much time, and that's why people are anxious, me thinks.

[alienstorm]

 https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1166516738923667457

[Kazmit]

Looking at water vapor, looks like a lot of wind shear north of Hispanola right now. Could that possibly deal a blow to Dorian in 24-48 hours?

Conditions can change in the 2 days it will take Dorian to reach that area.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What did the 18z ECMWF end up doing? Last I saw was 975mb in the Bahamas going west.