ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

edge of center is coming into PR radar range.

[Kingarabian]

The 18Z GFS has Dorian making landfall in - Savannah, the NE US high moving east a bit faster: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82718&fh=6

Looks like the trend in the track continues to be east. I just hope it goes out to sea.

Could easily flip right back the next day though. This is 5 days out.

Yeah of course. Today's trends could be very different from tomorrows.

[toad strangler]

The 18Z GFS has Dorian making landfall in - Savannah, the NE US high moving east a bit faster: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82718&fh=6

Looks like the trend in the track continues to be east. I just hope it goes out to sea.

Could easily flip right back the next day though. This is 5 days out.

If it doesn't Great Britain will be looking at a Cat 5 landfall

[Blown Away]

edge of center is coming into PR radar range.

Can you post a current satellite loop...

[SFLcane]

Expecting another northward track adjustment at 11pm from the nhc.

[Ian2401]

So what are the chances South Florida sees an impact? With the center jogging N and the Northern trend in models it seems almost surefire that SoFL is out of the mix?

[toad strangler]

So what are the chances South Florida sees an impact? With the center jogging N and the Northern trend in models it seems almost surefire that SoFL is out of the mix?

See you guys on Thursday

[Blinhart]

So what are the chances South Florida sees an impact? With the center jogging N and the Northern trend in models it seems almost surefire that SoFL is out of the mix?

I don't think there can be any all clear for any of Florida for a few more days.

[Hurricane Jed]

Better to be safe than sorry. Get your prep done as soon as possible.

[canes92]

This is one of the things I hate most about storms, is all this anticipation of not knowing where he might go and how strong. Just a waiting game right now.

[AxaltaRacing24]

So what are the chances South Florida sees an impact? With the center jogging N and the Northern trend in models it seems almost surefire that SoFL is out of the mix?

Chances are still the exact same. This can swing back south just as fast as it swung north.

[Ian2401]

How does the recent Northward jog affect the potential for a South FL impact? Trying to decide how much I need to be preparing now, etc.

[artist]

How does the recent Northward jog affect the potential for a South FL impact? Trying to decide how much I need to be preparing now, etc.

We really don’t know yet. Just one run. And Sam’s in WPB is already out of bottled water and gallon water. Best to prepare, hope you don’t need it, than to need it and have not gotten it, or it can’t be found.

[Hurricane Jed]

How does the recent Northward jog affect the potential for a South FL impact? Trying to decide how much I need to be preparing now, etc.

We really don’t know yet. Just one run. And Sam’s in WPB is already out of bottled water and gallon water. Best to prepare, hope you don’t need it, than to need it and have not gotten it, or it can’t be found.

Like he said get supplies now in case something does happen and it’s too late.

[toad strangler]

How does the recent Northward jog affect the potential for a South FL impact? Trying to decide how much I need to be preparing now, etc.

We really don’t know yet. Just one run. And Sam’s in WPB is already out of bottled water and gallon water. Best to prepare, hope you don’t need it, than to need it and have not gotten it, or it can’t be found.

This. It's best to be fully stocked and prepared on June 1st. If you can swing it. No stress. Believe me.

[tgenius]

What’s pretty insane is tomorrow is Wednesday and you would think by then we’d have a pretty clear idea as some models are showing landfall by late Saturday night, but it’s not looking like we are going to have somewhat of clarity until Thursday.

Here in west Kendall the wawa yesterday morning had gas at 2.27 and by time I was coming home was up to 2.39 already...

[Visioen]

The way this thing has been cheating death is remarkable. For all you tropical disturbances out there I highly recommend Dorian's Guide: How to survive as a tropical cyclone.

Includes tips & tricks for dealing with:
- dry air
- shear
- dry air
- models wanting to dissipate you
- dry air
- avoiding landmasses in your projected path
- also dry air

[chaser1]

The 18Z GFS has Dorian making landfall in - Savannah, the NE US high moving east a bit faster: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82718&fh=6

I think that could well be a very reasonable possibility. I'm not thinking that a mid to upper low will have as much impact on Dorian's bending back to the west as much as the strength and orientation of the mid level ridge to its north. A path east of P.R certainly would suggest an increased possibility of a landfall between Dayona and J'Ville. Who knows, maybe even Georgia. Way to much unknown factors to be sure of anything quite yet.

Regarding a potential direct impact with P.R., I'd be shocked if Dorian did not weaken to an open wave. That said however, it having a vigorous mid level circulation along with an assumption that optimum conditions might exist north of the islands.... and I believe that following a 24 hr. period we could well see a fairly quick spin up back to at least a T.S..

Last thought at the moment (and one without any diagnostic or scientific input); It seems to me that most years have one or two significant tropical events even if they never affect land. It just seems unlikely that even a Cat 1 hurricane striking the CONUS would necessarily be "that storm". That alone makes me wonder if Doruan could develop into a far more significant threat than presently anticipated. Or...., whether Dorian could simply be a tip-off for another far greater threat to the Greater Antilles or CONUS yet to come in September under more conducive (mid level moisture) conditions?

[Hurricane Jed]

What’s pretty insane is tomorrow is Wednesday and you would think by then we’d have a pretty clear idea as some models are showing landfall by late Saturday night, but it’s not looking like we are going to have somewhat of clarity until Thursday.

Here in west Kendall the wawa yesterday morning had gas at 2.27 and by time I was coming home was up to 2.39 already...

This has been one of the more tricky forecasts I’ve seen. TC’s are unpredictable and things can turn on a dime. Yes I wish we had a better picture too.

[Evil Jeremy]

The way this thing has been cheating death is remarkable. For all you tropical disturbances out there I highly recommend Dorian's Guide: How to survive as a tropical cyclone.

Includes tips & tricks for dealing with:
- dry air
- shear
- dry air
- models wanting to dissipate you
- dry air
- avoiding landmasses in your projected path
- also dry air

This one's a fighter. I'm not looking forward to seeing how it operates in favorable conditions.