ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

The circulation looks elongated. I wonder if it will even survive to the western Atlantic. May open up into a wave today.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Reposting the ASCAT pass since it's being ignored for whatever reason. 35kt winds. Tropical storm.

I get the discussion about it perhaps weakening recently, but this pass and surface observations were very clear in support of a TS Karen at 15z.

[Visioen]

Currently, I don't think it's a TS. Barely qualifies as a depression. There is a weak circulation, but convection is sparse and not organized in or near the center. Obs are generally in the 15-25 kt range.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen2.JPG

Seems consistent with this map from GFS where you can see there is no convection (=high humidity) over the surface center.
The mid-level center with convection is located to its SE.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Agree with Wxman57. Looks like it's weakened significantly since the last ASCAT pass ~13z and probably will die in the Caribbean.

Long term situation unchanged, we need to keep a very close eye on the progression of Karen outside of the Caribbean.

[Visioen]

Even if it dies vorticity will just reignite it later... so indeed longterm situation unchanged.

[GCANE]

There is a little know secondary coriolis force that helps to spin up a TC if it tracks on a straight due-north track.
It is weaker if it deviates from straight north or if it is lower in latitude.
Karen will track due north along 65W from about 17N to 24N.
IMHO that is enough to maintain its CoC; despite lack of convection, moderate shear, and / or PVS interaction.
Once it splits the PVS it could quickly strengthen and shortly after make the turn west.

The thing is that once it turns west does it intensify like the Euro or do nothing like the GFS

Intensity is just so hard to forecast. You gotta admit, intensity is pretty much a now-cast at any lead time. The models frequently get the track mostly correct but intensity is just not as easy.

Absolutely.
Intensity forecasting is more on a much finer spatial resolution than what the global models are setup to do.
Hot towers fire off, dry line convetion, outflow boundarys, tilted vorts, tropopause heightening, etc are just too fine scale for the capability of global models.
I think they should create a sub program in the globals where they switch on much finer spatial and time resolution around a potential TC when it is identified. I am sure this will require more processing power but could be achieved with parallel processing.

[rbaker55]

naked swirl at last satellite pic, shear too high

[gatorcane]

Very vigorous circulation though, concern is definitely down the road once north of the islands, I could see her coming back to life quickly when conditions improve and if the high blocks her as she heads west, no bueno.

[chaser1]

Agree with Wxman57. Looks like it's weakened significantly since the last ASCAT pass ~13z and probably will die in the Caribbean.

Long term situation unchanged, we need to keep a very close eye on the progression of Karen outside of the Caribbean.

I second.... er "third" Wxman57's notion here. Kudo's to NHC for at least remaining consistent with this year's T.S. classifications but a tight pressure gradient and a thousand 30 kt. ASCAT N.E. to S.E. flags does not a T.S. make. This system does now appear to have a fairly tight circulation but NO convective banding around center and could well turn out to be a vort center spit out of the broader MLC to it's east. More then likely i'd have considered this a candidate for a quickly developing T.D. but would have waited at least 12 hr's for additional daylight observation for center co-located convective continuity. As for long long range??? I think it's prudent to sit back and watch the atmospheric variables evolve since the models will no doubt react with countless scenarios between now and then. I'd be surprised if the EURO alone does not range from a weak T.S. Hispaniola landfall, to a potential Bahamas/Florida threat, to a quick and total dissipation, to an out-to-sea Cat. 3 hurricane...... all during the upcoming 72 hours.

[Hammy]

Could be naming bias but I'm fairly surprised this was upgraded given the poor shape it's in and the fact that a similar system (arguably more organized) that was east of Bermuda concurrent with Dorian wasn't upgraded. While I'm thinking the models might be on to something if Karen can survive the Caribbean, that in itself seems doubtful at the moment.

[SoupBone]

Could be naming bias but I'm fairly surprised this was upgraded given the poor shape it's in and the fact that a similar system (arguably more organized) that was east of Bermuda concurrent with Dorian wasn't upgraded. While I'm thinking the models might be on to something if Karen can survive the Caribbean, that in itself seems doubtful at the moment.

Well I'm hoping the Caribbean does its job with Karen, I'm over this season after Imelda.

[wxman57]

May be some issues with the SFMR instrument on the current flight. It wasn't working at first, and now it is indicating stronger wind at the surface than at flight level in a non-convective area. Surface obs near those 34-35 kt SFMR readings are 20 kts. I'd believe actual surface obs over SFMR any day.

[Hammy]

May be some issues with the SFMR instrument on the current flight. It wasn't working at first, and now it is indicating stronger wind at the surface than at flight level in a non-convective area. Surface obs near those 34-35 kt SFMR readings are 20 kts. I'd believe actual surface obs over SFMR any day.

Any chance the wind is higher from being squeezed between the islands? That seems like it's where the TS winds were observed on ASCAT as well.

[msbee]

Karen may not be strong but it is causing bad flooding and mudslides in Trinidad Tobago.

[jlauderdal]

Karen may not be strong but it is causing bad flooding and mudslides in Trinidad Tobago.

imelda wasnt strong either, did major flodding damage, no tropical system should be taken lightly

[msbee]

FYI, you can see on this link comments from Trinidad and Tobago. they are having terrble flooding They have many rivers which are overflowing

https://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curr ... idad.shtml

[arizona_sooner]

My wife is from Trinidad and Tobago and she got plenty pics and videos from friends and family on the islands this morning. Flooding and heavy rain plus it's a little windy. Definitely outside the norm for the weather down there. I'm unhappy that we missed it!

[SFLcane]

Ouch...Would not be surprised if the nhc drops advisory’s all together tomorrow.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1175849044897386497

[msbee]

My wife is from Trinidad and Tobago and she got plenty pics and videos from friends and family on the islands this morning. Flooding and heavy rain plus it's a little windy. Definitely outside the norm for the weather down there. I'm unhappy that we missed it!

the pics and videos I m seeing look quite bad. There are lots of flash floods and rivers overflowing. Downtown Scarborough in Tobago is very flooded out

[cycloneye]

Video from Trinidad where people are going out from the homes as the water rages inside.

 https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1175854398880325632