ATL: JERRY - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#141 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:34 am

A lot will tell us later today and tonight, the GFS forecasts Jerry to be a half naked swirl by tomorrow morning approaching the 17th latitude. It better start gaining latitude like right now and shear better pick up.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#142 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:35 am

Interesting, looks like the slower solutions are westerly.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#143 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:26 am

 https://twitter.com/WxDickey/status/1174295382194556930


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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#144 Postby Nuno » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:29 am



Interesting. People always assume stronger storms = generally more poleward but not if steering has any say on it.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#145 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:30 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Interesting, looks like the slower solutions are westerly.

Makes sense, the ridge would build back in after Humberto.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#146 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:33 am



:uarrow: :uarrow:

Looking at the trends since yesterday, Jerry is just slightly south of the current projected track . It certainly is stronger and well organized as a cyclone right now as well.

This indeed is quite concerning if these particular indicators I mentioned with Jerry continues in the short to medium term.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#147 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:52 am

06Z GFS with a Bermuda landfall

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#148 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:48 am

6z EPS more and more are slowly shifting westerly

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#149 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:50 am

Aric Dunn wrote:6z EPS more and more are slowly shifting westerly

https://i.ibb.co/NmCgL9N/Capture.png

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#150 Postby Nuno » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:54 am

Still a lot to watch for. Jerry's organization and intensity in the next 48 hours will be key. It could easily trend back the other way especially this far out.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#151 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:55 am

Aric Dunn wrote:6z EPS more and more are slowly shifting westerly

https://i.ibb.co/NmCgL9N/Capture.png


Note that whereas practically all of these 6Z EPS members travel north of 15N, 50W, satellite loops suggest at least to me that he’ll be going quite a bit south of that point unless I’m being deceived.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#152 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:57 am

Didn't Irma have that similar ensemble outlook during this timeframe?
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#153 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:58 am

LarryWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:6z EPS more and more are slowly shifting westerly

https://i.ibb.co/NmCgL9N/Capture.png


Note that whereas practically all of these 6Z EPS members travel north of 15N, 50W, satellite loops suggest at least to me that he’ll be going quite a bit south of that point unless I’m being deceived.


Yeah I dont see Jerry getting as far north as the models are showing in the short term. so essentially shift the shape of the tracks south some.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#154 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:11 am

Aric Dunn wrote:6z EPS more and more are slowly shifting westerly

https://i.ibb.co/NmCgL9N/Capture.png


Yeah definitely a bifurcation.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#155 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:28 am

Do we know the tipping point in strength as to which track Jerry is likely to take? Obviously, if he's a 1009 mb mess, the models assume he'll track NW.

But the ensembles suggest that even just a 10mb difference to 999mb would be enough to alter track. Is that all it would take?
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#156 Postby jconsor » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:35 am

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1174261399318605826


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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#157 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:51 am



Yeppers I made a post somewhere about that yesterday afternoon.

we also now have to watch the system trying to develop in the carrib.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#158 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:56 am

I'd say that's rather good agreement on this avoiding land all together.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#159 Postby jconsor » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:21 am

This tweet seems particularly apropos here:

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1172692286272155654




SFLcane wrote:I'd say that's rather good agreement on this avoiding land all together.

https://i.imgur.com/RFBWIGo.png
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models

#160 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:46 am

well the GFS is distinctly more organized and stronger in the first 12hrs. so far.
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