ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

This Buoy will be interesting. Winds still have an eastern component. He may pass right over it...

14.824 N 51.017 W

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41NT0

[wx98]

Looks like it’s got some SAL out in front of it. Will be interested to see if it can push it out of the way without adverse effects.

[Aric Dunn]

IT still Appears we will likely have a Hurricane by the time 00z models come out tonight.

whatever displacement there is wont last with that kind of convective pattern. very classic deepening right now.

And ASCAT is going to have a difficult resolving it due to its relatively small size of the core.

[northjaxpro]

That's a great observation!

We will see if you are on to something. Recon certainly will tell it all when they get in there later.

Just so you know, the recon flight today is the G-IV. They are sampling Jerry's environment instead of the inner vortex structure.

I overlooked apparently that the G-IV was flying out. I mistakenly thought a Recon mission was scheduled. Thanks for informing me and us all for the info.

[wx98]

We will see if you are on to something. Recon certainly will tell it all when they get in there later.

Just so you know, the recon flight today is the G-IV. They are sampling Jerry's environment instead of the inner vortex structure.

I overlooked apparently that the G-IV was flying out. I mistakenly thought a Recon mission was scheduled. Thanks for informing me and us all for the info.

Technically it’s still recon, just upper-air recon

[wx98]

IT still Appears we will likely have a Hurricane by the time 00z models come out tonight.

whatever displacement there is wont last with that kind of convective pattern. very classic deepening right now.

And ASCAT is going to have a difficult resolving it due to its relatively small size of the core.

I’m not so sure about “classic depending”, but if you can get a fairly disorganized 40 kt tropical storm battling shear and dry air to a hurricane in 12 hours I’ll change my tone

[SouthDadeFish]

The problem with forecasting tropical storm intensification is that it is highly dependent on the vertical alignment of the lower and middle-tropospheric vortex centers. At the moment, I don't see any obvious signs that the low-level center is exposed or even on the edge of the convection. That doesn't mean the center isn't tilted though. Regardless, the curvature of the banding to the north is increasing and cirrus outflow is expanding in all quadrants, except to the east. These are signs of an intensifying system. If there are no prominent dry air intrusions today, we may see some solid intensification if the vortex can become aligned, prior to shear increasing tomorrow.

[LarryWx]

Per the 5 AM NHC track based on straight line interpolation, Jerry should be up to the 14.5-14.6 N area in latitude at 11 AM. I don’t think he’s going to be much above 14.3 N but I could be wrong. That would be about 20 miles south of the NHC/model consensus.That may not seem like a lot but that’s enough to make a nontrivial difference in model projections.

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/1SW9Uhe.gif

That is one handsome little fellow!

What's this about shear increasing tomorrow?

[Aric Dunn]

Per the 5 AM NHC track based on straight line interpolation, Jerry should be up to the 14.5-14.6 N area in latitude at 11 AM. I don’t think he’s going to be much above 14.3 N but I could be wrong. That would be about 20 miles too far south. That may not seem like a lot but that’s enough to make a nontrivial difference in model projections.

You are not wrong.

barely above 14n right now. a convective hot tower developed and is rotating west at 14.3 to 14.4 north. so the center is somewhere south of that.

[Aric Dunn]

Per the 5 AM NHC track based on straight line interpolation, Jerry should be up to the 14.5-14.6 N area in latitude at 11 AM. I don’t think he’s going to be much above 14.3 N but I could be wrong. That would be about 20 miles too far south. That may not seem like a lot but that’s enough to make a nontrivial difference in model projections.

You are not wrong.

barely above 14n right now. a convective hot tower developed and is rotating west at 14.3 to 14.4 north. so the center is somewhere south of that.

So looks like right here per the convective pattern.

[BYG Jacob]

The problem with forecasting tropical storm intensification is that it is highly dependent on the vertical alignment of the lower and middle-tropospheric vortex centers. At the moment, I don't see any obvious signs that the low-level center is exposed or even on the edge of the convection. That doesn't mean the center isn't tilted though. Regardless, the curvature of the banding to the north is increasing and cirrus outflow is expanding in all quadrants, except to the east. These are signs of an intensifying system. If there are no prominent dry air intrusions today, we may see some solid intensification if the vortex can become aligned, prior to shear increasing tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/1SW9Uhe.gif

Never seen banding like that on the northern side of the system before in the NHEM, looks like something you’d see near Madagascar or Australia instead of the Atlantic.

[northjaxpro]

Just so you know, the recon flight today is the G-IV. They are sampling Jerry's environment instead of the inner vortex structure.

I overlooked apparently that the G-IV was flying out. I mistakenly thought a Recon mission was scheduled. Thanks for informing me and us all for the info.

Technically it’s still recon, just upper-air recon

Yes you are right. This G-IV mission is primarily for upper air data collection. The data will really be helpful with the models hopefully in future runs!

[WAcyclone]

The centre is north of 14.5N according to ScatSat:

[LarryWx]

Looking again at satellite loops, I think he’s degraded somewhat the last couple of hours though I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that as satellite pics can be deceiving. So, if he has degraded some, I wonder if that’s the reason he may be ~20 miles S of the NHC/model consensus. Does the steering for a weaker system in that area have less of a north component?

[Aric Dunn]

besides possibly being tilted somewhat. pretty clear where the center is not..

it is not near 14.5 n yet. barely above 14n

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah Jerry is definitely not as impressive as many say he is. He has the look of a struggling TC.

[Aric Dunn]

The centre is north of 14.5N according to ScatSat:

https://i.imgur.com/8CXjCeB.jpg

I dont know about them apples.. you cant see any visible signs of low level center being partially exposed.

[LarryWx]

besides possibly being tilted somewhat. pretty clear where the center is not..

it is not near 14.5 n yet. barely above 14n

https://i.ibb.co/8jvfW1N/4.gif

Looking at your loop, did he just wobble quite a bit north in the last hour?

[Aric Dunn]

besides possibly being tilted somewhat. pretty clear where the center is not..

it is not near 14.5 n yet. barely above 14n

https://i.ibb.co/8jvfW1N/4.gif

Looking at your loop, did he just wobble quite a bit north in the last hour?

well that hot tower expanded out ?