ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[GCANE]

In terms of trapped equatorial waves, there maybe a window of opportunity.

UL Divergence has settled back over this.
Reduction in zonal wind anomalies forecasted.
CCKW inhibition moving away to the east.

[abajan]

Even 40% seems generous:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser
Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

[NDG]

Definitely the Atlantic is not ready yet, the best two global models got fooled but eventually caught on. It needs a good two weeks before the dust starts settling down before any TWs have a chance to make that trip across the Atlantic. But even that permanent TUTT will have to get out of the way by then.

[DioBrando]

Definitely the Atlantic is not ready yet, the best two global models got fooled but eventually caught on. It needs a good two weeks before the dust starts settling down before any TWs have a chance to make that trip across the Atlantic. But even that permanent TUTT will have to get out of the way by then.

Would we get a chance, any time during the season, to get storms like Danielle in 2010?

[GCANE]

Watching some moderate convection popup directly over the CoC.

[cycloneye]

Still has a small chance.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser
Antilles is generating widespread disorganized showers. Some slow
development of this system is still possible, and a tropical
depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

[floridasun78]

it trying

[colbroe]

Looks like 96L trying to make a come back thunder storms firing up on the south side starting to get that look.

[storm4u]

96L definitely looking better

[storm4u]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

[Aric Dunn]

I would have to say that is an improvement in convection lol

If this persists for the next 12 hours.. then say hello to Chantal..

[Hurricaneman]

This actually finally looks like a budding tropical cyclone in the making

[StruThiO]

[northjaxpro]

96L is doing its best to try and pull off one of the best resurrections in the Tropical Atlantic I can remember in recent memory. I had all just about ready to declare it dead a couple of days ago. But, I stopped myself just short of doing so and decided to give the system at least a couple of more days to see if it can come back with some convection.

Well, it looks as if 96L has been able to fight through all that dry air to find somehow a way to genearate convection, and it looks likes in the short term, the system will make it past 55 degrees Longitude with a probable chance of being classified a TD, and may get enough of a convective boost to sustain itself and enable being named within the next day or so.

However, the TUTT awaits the potential cyclone once it nears the Lesser Antilles. I don't know if it can get through that hurdle. But, no quesftion, 96L/potential Chantal is definitely an incredible fighter against the odds thus far.

We will see if it can survive the daunting TUTT in the next 4 days or so....

[Aric Dunn]

Now ... where will. The center tigten up....

North ...south.... middle.... hmmmm so many choices :p

[GCANE]

LOL, year after year, its a recurring theme.
Tropical waves rarely develop before they hit 50W, especially early in the season.
Once they pass the "fifty-yard line" its game on.

[GCANE]

LL Vort riding pretty high but still very broad.
IMHO will take awhile to consolidate.
So I don't see any big recurve to the pole anytime soon.
Clear sailing ahead in terms of any PV Streamers.

[GCANE]

Persistent convection has been firing over the CoC for some time.
New convection now firing to the NE

[Aric Dunn]

LL Vort riding pretty high but still very broad.
IMHO will take awhile to consolidate.
So I don't see any big recurve to the pole anytime soon.
Clear sailing ahead in terms of any PV Streamers.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/5059/vWUW8M.gif

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6506/wIjeYM.gif

If the southern portion consolidates we will have a Caribbean runner... so this is key for future track.

[GCANE]