ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

No scheduled RECON yet that I can see.

NHC now emphasixing the turn to the northwest in TWO at 8 a.m. which I mentioned may be taking shape a shirt time ago. It indeed looks like 94L is about to find the weakness.

[Tailspin]

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1555298736

Some cool options

[GCANE]

Continuous tower firing and gravity waves in the cirrus - a sure sign of strengthening.

yeah impressive tower sustained inflow into that will tighten up the llc and drop the pressure pretty quickly.

Yes, a lot of helicity with that tower. It'll drive the vort to the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

No scheduled RECON yet that I can see.

NHC now emphasixing the turn to the northwest in TWO at 8 a.m. which I mentioned may be taking shape a shirt time ago. It indeed looks like 94L is about to find the weakness.

Hard to say its a small system could stay on a more west track longer. Should come into Florida regardless. Somwhere

[NDG]

94L looks so much better this morning because it has found a sweet spot of fairly light UL winds, well away from ULLs all around it. With an anticyclone on top of it.

[SouthDadeFish]

The key for genesis will be the persistence of convection. If the current convective burst can continue, it's possible a well-defined surface circulation will become established. Alternatively, it is also quite possible, if not probable, dry air will cause the current convective burst to collapse, similar to yesterday.

Regardless of TC genesis, the impacts to FL will be the same. Heavy showers with some gusty winds mixed in with the squalls. Since the vertical wind shear is out of the west, almost all of the squalls are on the east side of the system. If the "center" stays east of FL, it's possible FL dodges most of the heavy rain associated with the disturbance.

[northjaxpro]

I think NHC is trying tosee if they gave rnough time to get Recon out there. I think only.and only if this moves west into the Straits and gets to the SE Gulf, it will have a better chance to really develop.

GFS 06Z run yesterday morning had 94L turning parallel just off the FL East Coast and never closing off fully the system. It will be interesting today because I have no doubt in my mind tbis is a TD n all likelibood right now.

Just wondering if and when Recon will get out there. That is tough to decipher at the moment.

[NDG]

I think that Nassau's 12z sounding will show that there's is very little shear in this area, if any is because of its own low level montion, especially yesterday.

[psyclone]

well this thing has certainly come back to life compared to last night when all the convection vanished. We'll see if it can actually maintain its convection...persistence has been lacking

[tolakram]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=6696.71728515625&y=6023.66455078125

Looks like it might be on the south side of the Island. Convection already decreasing, we shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

Some of the surface obs indicate west winds. It is very close. Convection is maintianing and some inflow bands are starting to show. As it get closer radar we will know. Regardless of recon.

[wxman57]

Looks like it's going to track NNW and skirt SE FL this evening, turn north, then accelerate out to sea to the NE tomorrow night and Wednesday as the front picks it up. I don't see any WNW-NW movement for the "next couple of days" as mentioned in the NHC outlook. Development chances still low, though it does look a little more "blobby" today. Waiting for the 12Z obs to plot on my workstation. Looks like pressure to the east of Andros Island may be around 1012-1013mb. No surface obs out of Andros Island, only an east wind at 10 kts being reported at Nassau.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks similar to Barry, half a storm. Maybe this is the year of half a storm? The entire western part of the storm is devoid of convection due to dry air and possibly shear.

[SFLcane]

[NDG]

I place the coc right over Andros Island. IMO.

[drezee]

Closest ship I could find is NW of possible LLC: 21 kts sustained

22/12 J8QX6 25.0 -75.9 26.0 23.9 140 21 1015.9 0.7 29.0

[wxman57]

I place the coc right over Andros Island. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/sALmpA7.gif

I see a small southward-moving eddy just below the "heel" of your "L" on the image above.

[Aric Dunn]

You can see it quite clearly before it get covered by clouds. 1km visible.

[northjaxpro]

I place the coc right over Andros Island. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/sALmpA7.gif

You had it right a bit earlier NDG. I agree with your position.

[NDG]

You could really it track it through the night on shortwave ir before it got obscured by convection, extrapolation puts it right on or just on the east coast of Andros Island.