ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

they all like ridging, haven't seen anything that remotely resembles OTS...first up is who gets smacked on the ec of florida, im thinking the navgem, etc are overdone on the ridging at 3 days, euro has a really stout ridge now but a little later and trending stronger so i am looking at Palm Beach to the Cape, intensity wise the conditions look very good and the current intensity forecast seems conservative, will go cat 2 but if i was living in my predicted strike zone I would be hitting the store today and the gas station because at the next advisory the nhc is going to be locked in on at least a track +/- 100 miles...think they will be conservative on intensity as they have time and the Hispaniola effect but that opportunity seems to be decreasing as each model runs...palm beach to the cape, cat 2 but prepare for a major

This is sound advice. I'm ready in June every year. This includes a pallet of water and everything you can find on a hurricane list. The only thing I have to do is fill up the gas containers. I always have 3 propane tanks. (I grill a lot) 2 full and one in use. So I'm pretty stress free ATM but if any of you in the described area by jlauderdal aren't DO SO NOW!

[jaxfladude]

Nope JB I kinda like the guy but no no no no no no no.

[Aric Dunn]

Very deep convection building around the center on radar. And showing on sat. With a warm spot where the center is.

It took a little time to recover from the reformation but currently making a comeback.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's a shame were not going to get any new G-IV data for the models until 12z runs on Thursday (if I'm reading the recon schedule correctly)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1166420814889127938

[jlauderdal]

Nope JB I kinda like the guy but no no no no no no no.

Jb shows dora in a tweet but this setup is something completely different...really he is pointing out we already know, it is really tough to get landfall in your hood, its really rare so you have that on your side...palm beach, Melbourne, the cape, maybe daytona....this Bahamas setup is very formidable, lets hope the system is unable to maximize after its journey through the Carribean sea...even if it doesn't directly make landfal in the next couple of days it can still be severely disrupted

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166421084838608896

[Bocadude85]

they all like ridging, haven't seen anything that remotely resembles OTS...first up is who gets smacked on the ec of florida, im thinking the navgem, etc are overdone on the ridging at 3 days, euro has a really stout ridge now but a little later and trending stronger so i am looking at Palm Beach to the Cape, intensity wise the conditions look very good and the current intensity forecast seems conservative, will go cat 2 but if i was living in my predicted strike zone I would be hitting the store today and the gas station because at the next advisory the nhc is going to be locked in on at least a track +/- 100 miles...think they will be conservative on intensity as they have time and the Hispaniola effect but that opportunity seems to be decreasing as each model runs...palm beach to the cape, cat 2 but prepare for a major

I agree with your forecast, I’m going to say landfall is Jupiter, Fl with 110mph. Jupiter has a rich history of landfalls in the cat 3 range so a major is not out of the question. Just my opinion of course.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

So what does that ridge intend to do after initially pushing Dorian west? Is it supposed to traverse the Gulf and shut the door to northern motion, or is it expected to retreat back to the east and allow dorian a poleward path? How soon? There could easily be a second landfall on the gulf coast anywhere from the big bend to LA. -just depends how fast the ridge retreats and how quickly Dorian is moving. Hopefully he isn't able to linger in the bathtub warm gulf for any time! And Lord knows the FL panhandle is NOT ready for another storm so soon!

[AdamFirst]

I agree with your forecast, I’m going to say landfall is Jupiter, Fl with 110mph. Jupiter has a rich history of landfalls in the cat 3 range so a major is not out of the question. Just my opinion of course.

Oh put me in the northern eyewall, thanks a lot

[beoumont]

Erin 1995 (Vero Beach /Navarre Bch) --- has similar path to newest ECWMF for Dorian

[GCANE]

The feeder bands picking up on the hot water around the islands is doing the trick.
Outflow continues to improve. The whole west half has excellent venting.
However, I don't expect any significant venting on the east side throughout its duration in the Carib due to the fact the ULH will maintain its relative position to the NE.

[Michele B]

So what does that ridge intend to do after initially pushing Dorian west? Is it supposed to traverse the Gulf and shut the door to northern motion, or is it expected to retreat back to the east and allow dorian a poleward path? How soon? There could easily be a second landfall on the gulf coast anywhere from the big bend to LA. -just depends how fast the ridge retreats and how quickly Dorian is moving. Hopefully he isn't able to linger in the bathtub warm gulf for any time! And Lord knows the FL panhandle is NOT ready for another storm so soon!

My understanding is that Dorian will be "pulled" north by the influence of TD6 (is already being pulled). Once that moves far enough away, the high pressure ridge will build in (fairly largely) and BLOCK any further movement north, and THEN Dorian will turn more to the west.

If I'm understanding the explanations of these systems correctly, it seems to almost negate Dorian's ability to move west too soon, so GOM (and Panhandle of FL) COULD be spared.

But I'm no promet, so what do I know? I'm just trying to follow what others who are smarter than I am are saying here on this forum.

[Weatherboy1]

What MAY be relevant down the road is the "angle of attack" from Dorian on the FL coast. Models still too far out to say with confidence whether Miami, Palm Beach County, Cape Canaveral, etc. most likely place for him to come ashore (assuming he does ANYWHERE). But if he does, it appears it won't be doing so during a sharp recurve. It looks like there's enough ridging setting up that he'll be moving more W or WNW than N/NNE/NE like many storms that ride the coast. That, in turn, means we may not be talking about FL getting a glancing blow from the (typically weaker) SW or W side of a system … but rather the full brunt of one.

[Michele B]

Erin 1995 (Vero Beach /Navarre Bch) --- has similar path to newest ECWMF for Dorian

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Erin_1995_track.png

This is scary and sad for those who are still recovering from last year's Michael damage.

Let's hope it doesn't do this....

[Evil Jeremy]

5pm cone will be interesting. If I were a betting man, I'd say the 5 day point would remain the same, but days 2-4 more North and East, with a more pronounced bend back to the west than currently indicated.

[decgirl66]

Erin 1995 (Vero Beach /Navarre Bch) --- has similar path to newest ECWMF for Dorian

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Erin_1995_track.png

This is scary and sad for those who are still recovering from last year's Michael damage.

Let's hope it doesn't do this....

Wasn't Michael 2016?? EDIT: Ignore my delusional mind, I was thinking Matthew

[Aric Dunn]

Sure looks to be heading on a nnw course the last hour or soo..

[p1nheadlarry]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166421084838608896

Low shear, warm SSTs, high RH, hey let's throw in some baroclinicity for good measure why not!

[chris_fit]

CoC integrity seems to have improved....

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html