ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[SFLcane]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

And there you have it!

[abajan]

...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH...

Seems more likely now to miss Hispaniola. Hmm

[psyclone]

System looks terrible. But if we change our perspective would it help? Imagine if this were not a designated storm and instead an invest. Would we be watching it? Absolutely. Would it be a PTC with watches? Very likely.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Despite all the hand-wringing about dissipation and Dorian not being a threat down the line, the system remains well positioned this afternoon to maintain itself as a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean. The prospects of Dorian tracking over Hispaniola had already been decreasing, but the center reformation north increases the odds that we avoid the island altogether, with Puerto Rico a more likely landfall target. After that, the environment will be conducive for strengthening, and perhaps significant strengthening. The same models suggesting little development over the southwestern Atlantic are the same ones that insisted Dorian would be dead by now.

[Kazmit]

The cone sure looks awkward now, lol. The center reformation is going to shift the future track even further to the right.

[robbielyn]

Hi. Since last night early this am. What is the thinking of Dorian and any US mainland impacts if any. Prayers to Caribbean Islands hopefully no major effects.

TS likely, and possible Hurricane east coast of fl central northern part all still could hit miami. That is where we are at. Could go in the gom too but right now east central fl. gfs takes it to central, icon ukmet miami areas. wait and see still windshield wiping.

[Siker]

Given what we've seen today with St. Lucia disrupting the tiny circulation, a pass over Puerto Rico is also likely to be disruptive and seemingly more likely now than a hit on the DR.

[gatorcane]

What is interesting is that the storm could end up more right during the first few days but end up more left in the end as ridging has more time to build in.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The center continues to move in a more northerly fashion according to the Martinique radar.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[Camerooski]

What is interesting is that the storm could end up more right during the first few days but end up more left in the end as ridging has more time to build in.

Excellent point

[WeatherEmperor]

What is interesting is that the storm could end up more right during the first few days but end up more left in the end as ridging has more time to build in.

Wooow yes that is a good point. I totally overlooked that lol. This could explain the Ukmet solution


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[SFLcane]

What is interesting is that the storm could end up more right during the first few days but end up more left in the end as ridging has more time to build in.

But the A word comes to mind...

Can't say it.

[hohnywx]

Despite all the hand-wringing about dissipation and Dorian not being a threat down the line, the system remains well positioned this afternoon to maintain itself as a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean. The prospects of Dorian tracking over Hispaniola had already been decreasing, but the center reformation north increases the odds that we avoid the island altogether, with Puerto Rico a more likely landfall target. After that, the environment will be conducive for strengthening, and perhaps significant strengthening. The same models suggesting little development over the southwestern Atlantic are the same ones that insisted Dorian would be dead by now.

Great post. The new track and intensity forecast from NHC at 5 PM will be very interesting to read.

[jaxfladude]

Another hurricane season another possible threat for my area. Still way too many uncertainties for now but very slowly getting closer to some idea of what or if any impacts.

[jlauderdal]

they all like ridging, haven't seen anything that remotely resembles OTS...first up is who gets smacked on the ec of florida, im thinking the navgem, etc are overdone on the ridging at 3 days, euro has a really stout ridge now but a little later and trending stronger so i am looking at Palm Beach to the Cape, intensity wise the conditions look very good and the current intensity forecast seems conservative, will go cat 2 but if i was living in my predicted strike zone I would be hitting the store today and the gas station because at the next advisory the nhc is going to be locked in on at least a track +/- 100 miles...think they will be conservative on intensity as they have time and the Hispaniola effect but that opportunity seems to be decreasing as each model runs...palm beach to the cape, cat 2 but prepare for a major

[Weatherboy1]

While Dorian clearly looks a bit less impressive now than several hours ago, the same thing was true yesterday. Convection weakened in the mid-afternoon, then strengthened significantly heading into and through the overnight hours. Outflow still looks impressive and unlike other developing systems in the last few years that have died out in this part of the Caribbean, Dorian is 1) moving much slower and therefore not likely to "fly apart" and 2) gaining latitude vs. moving due W closer to South American coastline. Bottom line: Doubt he will just degenerate to a wave, especially with the center reformation. But we will see ...

[jlauderdal]

Another hurricane season another possible threat for my area. Still way too many uncertainties for now but very slowly getting closer to some idea of what or if any impacts.

you are going to have to prepare but that ridge is really looking strong and seems to be building in faster and stronger than we saw in the last few days, im giving you 100 mile buffer at least to the south, will see..plus we know how rare it is to get a direct in NE florida

[Michele B]

they all like ridging, haven't seen anything that remotely resembles OTS...first up is who gets smacked on the ec of florida, im thinking the navgem, etc are overdone on the ridging at 3 days, euro has a really stout ridge now but a little later and trending stronger so i am looking at Palm Beach to the Cape, intensity wise the conditions look very good and the current intensity forecast seems conservative, will go cat 2 but if i was living in my predicted strike zone I would be hitting the store today and the gas station because at the next advisory the nhc is going to be locked in on at least a track +/- 100 miles...think they will be conservative on intensity as they have time and the Hispaniola effect but that opportunity seems to be decreasing as each model runs...palm beach to the cape, cat 2 but prepare for a major

All of FL anticipating this thing.

Gas is UP TEN CENTS since yesterday (SW FL here - far away from current prognostications)…..I hate when they do that.

I think it already HAS a more-or-less 100 miles +/- possible landfall. I said yesterday - it appears to be zeroing in on Treasure Coast.