ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[longhorn2004]

This is pretty crazy when you are working and come back to catch up on three or four pages of posts. "It is strengthening, hot towers, outflow" competes page by page with "minimal TS, hardly any winds, ingesting dry air, looking bad" . Is this storm that up and down? Or just the observations?

It's the standard tug of war with our best players on the field. I'm just watching to see if it can survive the tropical ninja warrior hazard course that is the ne Caribbean. so far it is.

Why is the Carribean a hazard course other than the mountains of Cuba and Haiti/DR?

[Frank2]

Looks very much - a depression at the most.

[tanguy97]

Not kt but kilometers /h you can go to meteo.gp and Check the records

[Hammy]

Core signature is decreasing

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Getting farther from the radar...

Looks like it's moving through a shadow in the radar coverage from the mountains.

[USTropics]

This is pretty crazy when you are working and come back to catch up on three or four pages of posts. "It is strengthening, hot towers, outflow" competes page by page with "minimal TS, hardly any winds, ingesting dry air, looking bad" . Is this storm that up and down? Or just the observations?

It's the standard tug of war with our best players on the field. I'm just watching to see if it can survive the tropical ninja warrior hazard course that is the ne Caribbean. so far it is.

Why is the Carribean a hazard course other than the mountains of Cuba and Haiti/DR?

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166355536406876161

[toad strangler]

Very nice tweet Mr. Webb. Except its late August, not October.

[jdray]

Maximum gust in Martinique 100 k/h. Guadeloupe 70.

Any link?

http://www.meteofrance.gp/observations- ... inique/972

Currently showing 67kph (39mph) sustained, 87kph (54mph) gusts.

[toad strangler]

This is amazing to me and highlights just how anomalous current guidance is. No wonder ICON is trying to sneak into the GOM where it belongs

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1166397699224027136

[psyclone]

Very nice tweet Mr. Webb. Except its late August, not October.

It helps explain the current tough sledding environment.

[longhorn2004]

It's the standard tug of war with our best players on the field. I'm just watching to see if it can survive the tropical ninja warrior hazard course that is the ne Caribbean. so far it is.

Why is the Carribean a hazard course other than the mountains of Cuba and Haiti/DR?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166355536406876161

What is it in layman's terms that make hurricane development difficult in the Caribbean?

[Evil Jeremy]

This is amazing to me and highlights just how anomalous current guidance is.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 9224027136

Matthew is very fresh on my mind in regards to underestimated ridging forcing west shifts closer to Florida on this kind of approach...

[psyclone]

Why is the Carribean a hazard course other than the mountains of Cuba and Haiti/DR?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166355536406876161

What is it in layman's terms that make hurricane development difficult in the Caribbean?

There seems to be hostile upper level winds and dry air that plague the region and make it tough for storms to get going. pre existing hurricanes that enter the eastern Caribbean seem to do better but formative or weak systems often struggle. I've seen many reference continental air from south America as being more of an issue in the region as compared to areas farther west which makes sense owing to the shape of the south American coastline (with the western Caribbean being wider)..

[p1nheadlarry]

Why is the Carribean a hazard course other than the mountains of Cuba and Haiti/DR?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166355536406876161

What is it in layman's terms that make hurricane development difficult in the Caribbean?

The trade winds accelerate through the region is one factor

[Frank2]

Joe Bastardi and his group at Weatherbell now focusing more on the area between the Cape and Jacksonville.

[jconsor]

Maximum gust in Martinique 100 k/h. Guadeloupe 70.

Here is the link to see the peak gusts in the past 24 hours.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/observations- ... es-guyane/

The 103 km/h gust in Martinique was at 470 m elevation, and the 92 km/h gust was at 200 m elevation. All other sites are at 100 m elevation or lower.

[jdjaguar]

This is amazing to me and highlights just how anomalous current guidance is. No wonder ICON is trying to sneak into the GOM where it belongs

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1166397699224027136

Hurricane Matthew. Hoping that track/intensity doesn't repeat!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Upper Level Low sitting N of PR now will factor large down the road as will the remnant moisture from TD 6. That ULL is forecast by the models to slowly move WNW. It looks to inhibit the development until it finally fills in and retrogrades westward over FL. If it fills in it will not provide the forecast shear ahead of Dorian when it emerges North of PR. It looks pretty solid now.. Also note the moisture Dorian will have to work with if it survives as forecast north of PR. It may end with more of a head start than anticipated or equally likely get shredded and ingest more dry air as there is plenty of that around it now. Surprised it has done so well to this point given the overall circulation is not strong. Convection keeps pulsing away though.



https://col.st/k29E4

[jaxfladude]

Hi. Since last night early this am. What is the thinking of Dorian and any US mainland impacts if any. Prayers to Caribbean Islands hopefully no major effects.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1458.9258422851562&y=1038.9714050292969

[wxman57]

Looking much less impressive on satellite. Island winds hardly indicate anything is there. I doubt it still has any sustained tropical storm-force winds. There's a plane heading out there now. Anyone here know if it is a low-level invest? Doesn't say on Levi's page.