ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

I know that NHC states 295, but to me it looks like closer to a true NW (315) movement at the moment.
A bit more north would avoid Hispaniola and put PR more in the landfall area.

[Ritzcraker]

Feeder Band just about over the islands.
Unusually hot water around the islands.
Looks like it may have an effect.
Large tower firing off.
IR depicting a warm core.
Can't beat the outflow.

Largest tower I've seen fire off all morning...

[abajan]

Will td6 have any influence on the path or strength of Dorian?

TD 6 has become really annoying.

It will influence the path (and, by extension, the strength - depending on whether or not it misses Hispaniola). Mark Sudduth gave a partial explanation in his video yesterday.

How was the weather when Dorian went over/by you in Barbados?

Thanks for asking. Hardly anything to speak of. This morning we got the usual squally weather associated with the tail end of storms, but nothing major.

[robbielyn]

NHC seems quite puzzled why on days 4 and 5 there is such a discrepancy between SHIPS model and the operational models. SHIPS says hurricane and ops models keeping it TS.

The first letter of SHIPS stands for "Statistical". It does look at wind shear, but over a very large area - sometimes too large of an area that may extend well away from the storm center. Often, SHIPS will see strong wind shear, but that shear may be located well north of a storm center. In such cases, it may predict no strengthening or even weakening. In the case of the very small Dorian, the average wind shear over a large area may not be a good indicator of whether or not Dorian may strengthen. It may only take a small area of wind shear to disrupt Dorian's circulation, something that may not be seen by the SHIPS model. I would tend to trust dynamical over statistical intensity models.

Yeah. After i posted, i watched Levi’s video from last night and there is an ULL from the decoupled td 6 that causes the ne sheer but then after bahamas it could very well strengthen again before it hits fl.

[GCANE]

[AutoPenalti]

It’s amazing to think that this has such great satellite presentation but it’s been struggling to establish an inner core. Never seen anything like it.

[GCANE]

Feeder Band just about over the islands.
Unusually hot water around the islands.
Looks like it may have an effect.
Large tower firing off.
IR depicting a warm core.
Can't beat the outflow.

Largest tower I've seen fire off all morning...

I think this one nailed it.

[abajan]

Light winds and severe rains in Guadeloupe, We are in the northern part of the systeme. More rain to come.

Wow. Hopefully, everyone there is safe. Apparently, from a video on Facebook which was shared by a reputable agency, Martinique got torrential rainfall too.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have the missing recon set from their second pass of the new center ?

[robbielyn]

Light winds and severe rains in Guadeloupe, We are in the northern part of the systeme. More rain to come.

Wow. Hopefully, everyone there is safe. Apparently, from a video on Facebook which was shared by a reputable agency, Martinique got torrential rainfall too.

yeah i saw a tweet showing flooding and chunks of road tore up.

[artist]

Anyone have the missing recon set from their second pass of the new center ?

Try here
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/re ... DORIAN.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[SoupBone]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9976/tyQ3SD.gif

Is that a dry air slot its about to ingest on the last few frames? There's a naked section heading toward its core.

[robbielyn]

link to flooding in martinique via tweet. https://twitter.com/jcsamyde/status/116 ... 06690?s=21. And he his was a medium TS. BTW, here is a fun fact. in 1990 the whole human race, used only 1/5 of the power of a hurricane. They equal the power of 10 megaton nuclear weapon.

[Aric Dunn]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9976/tyQ3SD.gif

Is that a dry air slot its about to ingest on the last few frames? There's a naked section heading toward its core.

Most likely

[tanguy97]

Maximum gust in Martinique 100 k/h. Guadeloupe 70.

[chris_fit]

Core signature is decreasing

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[Aric Dunn]

Core signature is decreasing

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Getting farther from the radar...

[AutoPenalti]

Core signature is decreasing

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Losing radar coverage. Seems intact to me.

[cycloneye]

Maximum gust in Martinique 100 k/h. Guadeloupe 70.

Any link?