ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
14m
Recon is hopefully about to sample the vorticity maximum that has formed within #Dorian west of Martinique.

On this pass, take care interpreting the extrapolated pressure obs. The aircraft's altimeter has been behaving errantly, which directly impacts the pressure estimates.

[otowntiger]

No question about that. Dorian looks less impressive than a few hours ago, though. Winds may be down to 30-35 kts.

WXMAN57 - What's your track/intensity for FL look like?

Landfall near Port St. Lucie. Ensembles now indicating a WNW track into the NE Gulf late Sunday. Intensity past the DR is HIGHLY uncertain. Somewhere between a tropical wave and a hurricane, I'd say.

LOL! big range there! But well said and understandable. A lot could still happen intensity wise apparently, but it seems that the eventual path is getting a little more clear, maybe?

[Aric Dunn]

Found the center just fine. And pressures are dropping. Not surprised. Assuming the pressure sensor is working lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

Martinique radar clearly shows the new center due west of Fort-De-France

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[txwatcher91]

Looks like they found the center.

[NDG]

This is good enough for me for a new COC.

[Evil Jeremy]

Landfall near Port St. Lucie. Ensembles now indicating a WNW track into the NE Gulf late Sunday. Intensity past the DR is HIGHLY uncertain. Somewhere between a tropical wave and a hurricane, I'd say.

What are your thoughts on the weaker subtropical ridging that the models have been suggesting over the past several cycles? Are they underestimating the ridge as they have time and time again, or is it too soon to tell?

[ronjon]

Martinique radar clearly shows the new center due west of Fort-De-France

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Looks like an eyewall on radar - very circular.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like they found the center.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0505A-DORIAN_zoom.png

1007mb which means a little bit of strengthening going on

[Hurricaneman]

Martinique radar clearly shows the new center due west of Fort-De-France

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Looks like an eyewall on radar - very circular.

Not with a 1007 pressure, it’s an artifact

[GCANE]

Feeder Band just about over the islands.
Unusually hot water around the islands.
Looks like it may have an effect.
Large tower firing off.
IR depicting a warm core.
Can't beat the outflow.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The outflow looks like it is improving in all sectors. We will have to see if it can fight off that dry slot thats trying to work in. I just also noticed that dry slot is right where the old center was

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like some inflow impingement due to the Lesser Antilles

[ObsessedMiami]

This is pretty crazy when you are working and come back to catch up on three or four pages of posts. "It is strengthening, hot towers, outflow" competes page by page with "minimal TS, hardly any winds, ingesting dry air, looking bad" . Is this storm that up and down? Or just the observations?

[wxman57]

This is good enough for me for a new COC.

https://i.imgur.com/PGUHUox.png

That's a pretty pathetic circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation looks great for just having reformed. Convection building around it. Will take a couple hours for everything to even out.

[Bostonriff]

Martinique radar clearly shows the new center due west of Fort-De-France

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Looks like an eyewall on radar - very circular.

Not with a 1007 pressure, it’s an artifact

It may not be an eyewall yet, but it's definitely a spinning circle of echo-returns.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like an eyewall on radar - very circular.

Not with a 1007 pressure, it’s an artifact

It may not be an eyewall yet, but it's definitely a spinning circle of echo-returns.

Well technically its exactly what would be the low to mid level eyewall. It just does not have the dynamics that would truly make it an eyewall.

[tanguy97]

Light winds and severe rains in Guadeloupe, We are in the northern part of the systeme. More rain to come.

[psyclone]

This is pretty crazy when you are working and come back to catch up on three or four pages of posts. "It is strengthening, hot towers, outflow" competes page by page with "minimal TS, hardly any winds, ingesting dry air, looking bad" . Is this storm that up and down? Or just the observations?

It's the standard tug of war with our best players on the field. I'm just watching to see if it can survive the tropical ninja warrior hazard course that is the ne Caribbean. so far it is.