ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

We don’t need anymore rain here in Palm Beach County!

[Aric Dunn]

That old circ to the south cant survive against this.. recon needs to fly through..

[sma10]

The forecast may call for a TS down the line but more likely it is either nothing or a hurricane with a TS simply being the best compromise at this time. exceptionally high degree of uncertainty since the dissipation option remains on the table. So far it's still surviving. Assuming that remains the case...the WPC is painting a wet picture for the Florida peninsula with plenty of QPF for everyone from the upper keys and below I-10 on the latest output.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566919479

Yeah, it's sort of funny that the "compromise" solution seems to be the safest bet ... yet, is probably the least likeliest outcome lol

[USTropics]

Clear center reformation on radar:

[robbielyn]

NHC seems quite puzzled why on days 4 and 5 there is such a discrepancy between SHIPS model and the operational models. SHIPS says hurricane and ops models keeping it TS.

[dspguy]

Never really intensifies in the Bahamas considering the fuel and favorable conditions. Not sure the reasoning behind this. A 65mph TS near haiti you would think there was room for further intensification.

NHC usually doesn't show any significant changes in intensity with long-range forecasts because of the uncertainty. They also don't want to alarm the public too much this far out. In reality, this could weaken significantly while passing Hispaniola and intensify just as fast while in the Bahamas.

True, but if someone lives in FL, they should be prepared anyway. If the storm survives until its 3 days out and the intensity has ramped up, it should simply be a matter of executing the already laid out plans as opposed to rushing to the store to buy food/water/generator/gas/etc. Most of those are things people in SE US should have on-hand every hurricane season anyway.

So yeah, don't alarm the public which would be fine if the public were responsible.

[Siker]

Well recon can probably hit that center on their current SW/NE pass.

[Bostonriff]

Based on recent radar showing a tight, perfectly circular central whorl popping up out of a previously ragged mess, and the behavior of the system over the last few days, I expect Dorian to begin bombing nicely now. (The storm seems to flare hardest twice a day, once near sunset, and once near dawn -- almost as if it were being affected by atmospheric tides.)

[Aric Dunn]

Finally they are going for it .

[NDG]

Yep, recon is going for the new developing COC

[wxman57]

NHC seems quite puzzled why on days 4 and 5 there is such a discrepancy between SHIPS model and the operational models. SHIPS says hurricane and ops models keeping it TS.

The first letter of SHIPS stands for "Statistical". It does look at wind shear, but over a very large area - sometimes too large of an area that may extend well away from the storm center. Often, SHIPS will see strong wind shear, but that shear may be located well north of a storm center. In such cases, it may predict no strengthening or even weakening. In the case of the very small Dorian, the average wind shear over a large area may not be a good indicator of whether or not Dorian may strengthen. It may only take a small area of wind shear to disrupt Dorian's circulation, something that may not be seen by the SHIPS model. I would tend to trust dynamical over statistical intensity models.

[Kingarabian]

Don't start rumor by talking about eyewall replacements.

This in the past few mintues by Joe Bastardi:

"IMO Dorian is likely no more than a minimal TS right now."

As he noted, Recon only found a 1010mb pressure and 30Kts of wind - barely a depression, too...

[wxman57]

Yep, recon is going for the new developing COC

No question about that. Dorian looks less impressive than a few hours ago, though. Winds may be down to 30-35 kts.

[chris_fit]

Yep, recon is going for the new developing COC

No question about that. Dorian looks less impressive than a few hours ago, though. Winds may be down to 30-35 kts.

WXMAN57 - What's your track/intensity for FL look like?

[Kingarabian]

I wouldn't count on strengthening until its just north of Hispaniola.

[SFLcane]

Conditions again do not appear that favorable for development

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166380668235976705

[Bostonriff]

Based on recent radar showing a tight, perfectly circular central whorl popping up out of a previously ragged mess, and the behavior of the system over the last few days, I expect Dorian to begin bombing nicely now. (The storm seems to flare hardest twice a day, once near sunset, and once near dawn -- almost as if it were being affected by atmospheric tides.)

No sooner do I post, and a new hot tower booms directly over the LLC.

"...Stuck a feather in his cap and called it 'macaroni'!"

[wxman57]

Recon seems to be having trouble finding the center. Looks like a mess in the recon obs.

[wxman57]

Yep, recon is going for the new developing COC

No question about that. Dorian looks less impressive than a few hours ago, though. Winds may be down to 30-35 kts.

WXMAN57 - What's your track/intensity for FL look like?

Landfall near Port St. Lucie. Ensembles now indicating a WNW track into the NE Gulf late Sunday. Intensity past the DR is HIGHLY uncertain. Somewhere between a tropical wave and a hurricane, I'd say.

[Bostonriff]

Recon seems to be having trouble finding the center. Looks like a mess in the recon obs.

How old is this information? There's a closed center visible on radar right now.