ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Everyone’s saying different things- some think it’s well on its way to being a named storm and some think it’s dying.

MDR is still shut down. SAL is abnormally higher this month.

[DioBrando]

There's a reason why they upped development chances though.

[CyclonicFury]

Everyone’s saying different things- some think it’s well on its way to being a named storm and some think it’s dying.

MDR is still shut down. SAL is abnormally higher this month.

I think you are exaggerating the hostility of the MDR. Until recently SAL was below normal actually (not sure how it stacks up for August).

As for 99L, I'd say it's close to being a TD but not quite there yet. The easterly shear should relax some tomorrow, but westerly shear is likely to become a problem as it enters the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

There's a reason why they upped development chances though.

Short term sure.. long term nope.

[ronjon]

Good news this morning if this even develops it will more then likely be decapitated as it nears the islands. Conditions just are not favorable overall

Let's hope so because it could be a long term threat to Florida or the SE US. This one has my attention.

[DioBrando]

Everyone’s saying different things- some think it’s well on its way to being a named storm and some think it’s dying.

MDR is still shut down. SAL is abnormally higher this month.

I think you are exaggerating the hostility of the MDR. Until recently SAL was below normal actually (not sure how it stacks up for August).

As for 99L, I'd say it's close to being a TD but not quite there yet. The easterly shear should relax some tomorrow, but westerly shear is likely to become a problem as it enters the Caribbean.

Agree with CycloneFury.

[gatorcane]

Good news this morning if this even develops it will more then likely be decapitated as it nears the islands. Conditions just are not favorable overall

This is absolutely the case. When you see this type of struggling, moisture starved, small system, I can’t recall one ever amounting to more than a tropical storm. There is just nothing to work with.

Actually if you go back and look at some of the legendary hurricanes to impact the islands and US, many had some period of time where they struggled before they really took off. Not saying this one will be one of those storms, but all it takes is for it to find a pocket of favorable conditions further downstream.

[Aric Dunn]

last couple hours it has been interesting to watch the mid level vort stack on top the low level . its almost there.

[toad strangler]

Everyone’s saying different things- some think it’s well on its way to being a named storm and some think it’s dying.

The place makes my head spin but it’s still the best place for tropical disco. You just have to master weeding out the noise!

[Ivanhater]

last couple hours it has been interesting to watch the mid level vort stack on top the low level . its almost there.

It sure is and just a few days ago, models had a dead Atlantic. If you hug the models too much, you get burned.

[DioBrando]

TD5 HAS BEEN DECLARED OFFICIALLY BY THE HURRICANE CENTER.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 47.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 47.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 47.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.0N 51.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.4N 53.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.6N 59.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 66.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[GeneratorPower]

Good news this morning if this even develops it will more then likely be decapitated as it nears the islands. Conditions just are not favorable overall

This is absolutely the case. When you see this type of struggling, moisture starved, small system, I can’t recall one ever amounting to more than a tropical storm. There is just nothing to work with.

Actually if you go back and look at some of the legendary hurricanes to impact the islands and US, many had some period of time where they struggled before they really took off. Not saying this one will be one of those storms, but all it takes is for it to find a pocket of favorable conditions further downstream.

I think large areas of dry, dusty air are the biggest inhibitors. Shear can relax and SSTs can increase as it moves west. But dry air hangs around and seems to move in tandem with the disturbance. Needs to be large fetches of moisture on all sides for a monster hurricane.

[CyclonicFury]

They forecast 75 kt in the Caribbean? Skeptical of that

[Aric Dunn]

well look at that.. a TD !

[DioBrando]

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

[NDG]

TD 5!!!

[shiny-pebble]

Is there sinking motion or just dry air? If there's high SSTs, low wind shear, then couldn't it possibly fight off dry air/create a pocket of a moist air?

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[Aric Dunn]

They forecast 75 kt in the Caribbean? Skeptical of that

Why? it wont have any issues with flow since it is already an established system. only thing is shear.. and thats always iffy.

[AnnularCane]

A TD? In the MDR? But that's impossible! August was supposed to be completely dead.

[NDG]

Better defined circulation for sure enough for the upgrade to TD, well deserved.