ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at cell motion in long range the center appears to just about to cross the southern portion on andros island. Still looks do west from last night.

Deep convection on radar over center as well.. if it is nott all the way to the surface now.. it wont take long with the cinvection now.

[tgenius]

Definitely improved its structure and appearance overnight, but don’t think it’s got enough time to get going before nearing the coast unless it really does hit a wall in forward motion.

[NDG]

[jconsor]

Couple of stations reporting SW and WNW winds respectively on Exuma island in the Bahamas, south of the apparent center of circulation on satellite:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IEXUMAEX4
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IEXUMA14

Another station further north had winds shift from east to west for a half hour, and now consistently south past 4+ hours:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IEXUMA11

Pressure at all of these stations and at Nassau in the NW Bahamas has dropped about 2.5 to 3 mb in 24 hours:
https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/d ... 0&hours=36

Not a sign of any rapid strengthening, but could be a brief spinup before it hits more unfavorable conditions.

[CourierPR]

NDG, that shot makes it look closed off.

[Aric Dunn]

Que chantal... lol

And the rapid spin up..

[NDG]

A good 3-4 mb drop in this area from 24 hrs ago.

[SFLcane]

This is near TD status...

[Shell Mound]

This system is very reminiscent of Tropical Storm BONNIE (2010). Incidentally, Bonnie also developed from a surface trough in the same region (on 22 July, no less!), featured a small circulation embedded in high environmental pressures, and was moving fairly quickly on the northeastern edge of a retrograding upper low, hence its inability to strengthen beyond low-end tropical-storm status, owing to net convergence at the middle to upper levels, southeasterly vertical shear, and fairly strong low-level easterlies. Like 94L, BONNIE was not initially forecast to develop, since the models failed to resolve the sudden, short-term genesis, given the very small size of the circulation. BONNIE was also short-lived and dissipated shortly after making landfall on South Florida as a low-end tropical storm.

[NDG]

Looking at lr radar and at the first few vis pic loop, it still looks like the small LLC is running just ahead of the deep convection, approaching Andros Island.

[DioBrando]

thank u, next

[tolakram]

SLIDER blue band starting to show up

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_01&x=6728.7353515625&y=6068.76513671875

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at lr radar and at the first few vis pic loop, it still looks like the small LLC is running just ahead of the deep convection, approaching Andros Island.

https://i.imgur.com/gmQCUcy.jpg

I have it farther south. But where at this point is not important. It will jump around with the convection. Likely going to tuck up under that sustained hot tower

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms over the Northwest Bahamas and the
adjacent waters are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while the trough moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at around 15 mph. Additional
development is not anticipated after that time due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[northjaxpro]

NDG, getting the work in this morning my friend! I agree with your analysis . I think the LLC is near or right over Andros Islsnd at the moment. Spot on !

Any word from NHC on when they can get Recon out there or is it too late given thr proximity to land?

[GCANE]

Continuous tower firing and gravity waves in the cirrus - a sure sign of strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

Continuous tower firing and gravity waves in the cirrus - a sure sign of strengthening.

yeah impressive tower sustained inflow into that will tighten up the llc and drop the pressure pretty quickly.

[SFLcane]

Nice conditions are now marginally favorable..I thought Blake stated they were not. These type of systems especially close to home all they need is a small window to take advantage.

[GCANE]

Looking at Sat WV, convection is eroding the dry slot to its west at low- and mid-level.
Watching upper-level.

[AutoPenalti]

There’s no blocking of any sort, so a complete stop in forward motion is not really expected. A slowdown is the closest thing it has to strengthening.