WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

If Kammuri starts with RI earlier than forecast, is there a chance that its track and movement will change? Because I'm thinking that if a storm gets deeper, it will follow a different steering layer/pattern.

[1900hurricane]

Interesting that JTWC is already hinting of a recurve very early in their forecast.

It certainly looks like it, but I don't think it's actually a full-blow recurve. Looks like guidance drifts it north once it enters the col region in the Philippine Sea before ridging builds back in and forces it back west to at least some degree right around tau 96-120.

[Hayabusa]

The 6th named storm this November, 2019 is already tied with 2018's number of named storms excluding Hector, wow.

[1900hurricane]

If Kammuri starts with RI earlier than forecast, is there a chance that its track and movement will change? Because I'm thinking that if a storm gets deeper, it will follow a different steering layer/pattern.

I'm not sure it's that cut and dry this go around. This isn't exactly a deep dive, but just a glance at EPS members shows there doesn't appear to be any track bias based on intensity.

[Highteeld]

If Kammuri starts with RI earlier than forecast, is there a chance that its track and movement will change? Because I'm thinking that if a storm gets deeper, it will follow a different steering layer/pattern.

[mrbagyo]

The trailing blob of convection appears to be rotating as well.

[Hayabusa]

Could it pump the ridge if this RIs?

[Highteeld]

Are there SHIPs RI probabilities we can view for the WPAC?

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

[dexterlabio]

Are there SHIPs RI probabilities we can view for the WPAC?

I thought that is only exclusive for western hemisphere cyclones but I would love to see one for this basin.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Given its expected longevity, Kammuri will be a HUGE ACE maker. Interesting to note how the JMA forecast for day five is actually stronger than the JTWC's.

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00' (16.0°)
E136°00' (136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 850 km (450 NM)

[Highteeld]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.7N 143.2E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.11.2019 36 11.7N 143.2E 1000 37
1200UTC 27.11.2019 48 11.1N 140.6E 996 35
0000UTC 28.11.2019 60 11.7N 140.8E 993 34
1200UTC 28.11.2019 72 13.9N 141.1E 990 36
0000UTC 29.11.2019 84 15.0N 141.8E 986 41
1200UTC 29.11.2019 96 15.6N 142.1E 980 47
0000UTC 30.11.2019 108 15.8N 141.7E 975 51
1200UTC 30.11.2019 120 16.1N 140.4E 965 62
0000UTC 01.12.2019 132 16.2N 139.0E 951 70
1200UTC 01.12.2019 144 17.2N 137.8E 945 72

[1900hurricane]

I think JTWC might use it internally since they mentioned it in the 2013 ATCR regarding Haiyan. Haven't ever seen it publicly though.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/JamesMclaire/status/1199159820747595776

[Hayabusa]

Hey JTWC it's 26/03Z

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH VERY EXPANSIVE (OVER 800NM ACROSS), ALBEIT SHALLOW AND
FRAGMENTED, RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS ON THE MSI AND
INTERPOLATING FROM CLOSELY-CLUSTERED AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES (T1.5/25KTS-T2.5/35KTS) AND REFLECTS THE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSES REVEAL A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE, AND VERY WARM (>30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR UP TO
TAU 36, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 160NM SOUTH OF GUAM. AFTERWARD, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 29W WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS
THE COL BETWEEN THE CURRENT STR AND A SECONDARY, BUILDING STR TO THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND
PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO OVER 600NM BY TAU 120.
THIS, PLUS THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Highteeld]

Syntopic/track scenario is giving me some minor flashbacks of Dorian

[1900hurricane]

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

More north track...