ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1175729984054452225

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1175724240957583360

[underthwx]

This cyclone unfortunately, one for my friends in Florida and Bahamas to keep close watch on, I know yall have dealt with alot of storm anxiety lately, and now Karen.

[hurricanes1234]

Anyone have any idea when Trinidad/Tobago had their last TS warning?

Also don’t forget there’s lots of real estate for TS Karen to cover before it ever gets to CONUS or GOM. There’s plenty of folks in the islands.

Our last tropical storm warning was in 2017 with Tropical Storm Don I believe. And just a month prior to that, we had a direct landfall from Tropical Storm Bret.

[underthwx]

What influence on Karen's track, if any, does TS Jerry have?..

[pgoss11]

What influence on Karen's track, if any, does TS Jerry have?

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe when Jerry exits in the North Atlantic a strong ridge builds in quickly and blocks Karen’s exit forcing her to go west or southwest.

[hipshot]

I was not expecting it to become a tropical storm already, a few hours ago I was expecting PTC advisories today. However radar confirms we the low closed off.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_rada ... Lionel.php

I doubt we will get better model runs today as a result of having a closed low to input but I definately feel this will be a threat to Florida. I'm already thinking about what I need to buy this week to be stocked up for a storm.

What will the land interaction of South America have on Karen?

[northjaxpro]

What influence on Karen's track, if any, does TS Jerry have?

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe when Jerry exits in the North Atlantic a strong ridge builds in quickly and blocks Karen’s exit forcing her to go west or southwest.

In a nutshell, yes this sums it up.

[sma10]

My guess perhaps a close call for Cape Hatteras but not Florida, the current zonal pattern of highs and troughs being very active the past 2 weeks, so any ridge building wil be short-lived...

You will be correct if the models current prediction of a pattern change turns out to be wrong

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1175737420622548992

[AnnularCane]

:uarrow: I understand that more than anyone else Jlauderdal, which makes my point!! I just wish people would cease with the season cancel posts. They do not serve any purpose whatsoever!

But they're a yearly tradition! I know what you mean though, people seem to have short memories.

I certainly wasn't expecting to wake up to Karen this morning! A PTC, or even a TD, maybe, but not a named TS. It's like she snuck in during the night. Hello Karen.

[rbaker55]

I was not expecting it to become a tropical storm already, a few hours ago I was expecting PTC advisories today. However radar confirms we the low closed off.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_rada ... Lionel.php

I doubt we will get better model runs today as a result of having a closed low to input but I definately feel this will be a threat to Florida. I'm already thinking about what I need to buy this week to be stocked up for a storm.

What will the land interaction of South America have on Karen?

its not much of effect on Karen except storms most of the time in that region intensify. There is some NE shear in there now, but once it gets into the atlantic conditions look to be better for intensification. This has been true all this year including with Dorian.

edit: in that region do NOT intensify

[Jr0d]

I was not expecting it to become a tropical storm already, a few hours ago I was expecting PTC advisories today. However radar confirms we the low closed off.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_rada ... Lionel.php

I doubt we will get better model runs today as a result of having a closed low to input but I definately feel this will be a threat to Florida. I'm already thinking about what I need to buy this week to be stocked up for a storm.

What will the land interaction of South America have on Karen?

It does not look as good now on radar then it did a few hours ago. It may even be an open wave now. There might be some interaction with land plus the shear that is restricting it.

Also it looks like it's going almost due west right now, at least to my amateur eyes. I expect it to start turning more NW at some point today.

[Jr0d]

Even though the recent radar does not look all that good, the overall cloud pattern on satellite is looking better in my amateur opinion.

[somethingfunny]

What influence on Karen's track, if any, does TS Jerry have?..

Alot of this will depend on how much strength Jerry can maintain. A stronger Jerry could pull Karen up north with it.

[GCANE]

As Jerry moves north and gets caught up in the Rossby Wave (making extra-trop transistion), it will cut off a Potential Vort Streamer (PVS).
This will leave an ULL to its west.
That in turn helps weaken the SE CONUS High pressure allowing a west turn.
GFS and and the majority of the Euro Ensembles are making the west turn.
GFS has the ULL too close, limiting Karen's intensification.
A couple Euro ensembles have a major cane in the GOM.

[Mialco]

Yeah I saw that weather statement as well. I suppose they were confident that any effects would be minimal and that advisories weren't necessary (but dem winds though!!!)

I guess they figure a warning would be mostly after the fact and be too short-lived, as the winds should diminish here within the next few hours.

abajan - shouldn't we have at least had some sort of advisories? Not even flood watches/warnings have been isused (or did I miss them?)

There's currently a "weather information statement" on the BMS website. The official forecast for Barbados reads as follows:

Today: Cloudy to overcast and windy with moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms.

Tonight: Generally cloudy and windy with some pockets of light to moderate showers, periods of rain and possible isolated thunderstorms.

(Incidentally, I have no idea why part of the link to the weather info statement has "Planet of [the] Apes". The webmaster seems to have been a fan of that series. )

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/h9dL03m.png

Looks like there are 4 35 knot barbs there

[mpic]

What influence on Karen's track, if any, does TS Jerry have?

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe when Jerry exits in the North Atlantic a strong ridge builds in quickly and blocks Karen’s exit forcing her to go west or southwest.

In a nutshell, yes this sums it up.

Well, I was about to take my hurricane food down to the shelter since I was one of the lucky ones with Imelda, but I guess the better idea will be to make a trip to the store and hang onto mine. Local mets are giving us the all clear for the season here, but glad I checked.