ATL: JERRY - Models

[sma10]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.

https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

1. I count about 7 hits from TD 10 on the CONUS on his 12Z Euro ens, which is similar to the 0Z. So, even I admit it isn't a done deal yet despite my thinking the CONUS won't be hit.

2. Right now, the followup wave interests me more with regard to the CONUS. At day 10 on your maps, the members in the SE Bahamas as well as east and south of there are actually from that followup wave. During Sep 28-Oct 2 as the big ridge rebuilds, the 12Z Euro ens has several big hits in the US, including one in the NE US and several in FL. It also has several strong members still in the Gulf 10/2.

Looking out past 3 to 5 days is silly. at 5 days 75 percent have not turned. thats important.

Oh absolutely. The only thing we do know is that TD10 exists and is not expected to recurve in the next 3 to 5 days.
We are only surmising though that, should the consensus be accurate, and the modeled storm appear in the SE Carib at T120hr, there will likely be another trouble spot of great interest.

[plasticup]

12z HWRF with a wildly different solution: Category 5 in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091712/hwrf_mslp_uv850_10L_43.png

Not quite a 5...but that would be an unmitigated disaster! Either you plow into DR....or you have a Cat 4 heading toward the highest ocean heat content in the Western Hemisphere. Hard no on either...

The image says 139.8 knots, which is category 5
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

[jlauderdal]

12z HWRF with a wildly different solution: Category 5 in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091712/hwrf_mslp_uv850_10L_43.png

Not quite a 5...but that would be an unmitigated disaster! Either you plow into DR....or you have a Cat 4 heading toward the highest ocean heat content in the Western Hemisphere. Hard no on either...

The image says 139.8 knots, which is category 5
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

hwrf goes bonkers with intensity and keeps it south even though the ridge is eroding, sure.

[Aric Dunn]

Not quite a 5...but that would be an unmitigated disaster! Either you plow into DR....or you have a Cat 4 heading toward the highest ocean heat content in the Western Hemisphere. Hard no on either...

The image says 139.8 knots, which is category 5
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

hwrf goes bonkers with intensity and keeps it south even though the ridge is eroding, sure.

well there is a small weakness in the 500mb heights but just like the EURO ensembles a lot continue west..

Also check the 200 mb steering for the HWRF> your answer lies with that ridge that will almost certainly exist once humberto pulls out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=120

[jlauderdal]

The image says 139.8 knots, which is category 5
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

hwrf goes bonkers with intensity and keeps it south even though the ridge is eroding, sure.

well there is a small weakness in the 500mb heights but just like the EURO ensembles a lot continue west..

Also check the 200 mb steering for the HWRF> your answer lies with that ridge that will almost certainly exist once humberto pulls out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=120

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2019091712/hwrf-p_uv200_10L_25.png

I noticed the ridging in the euro at 120h and then it seems to weaken...hwrf was very god with dorian intensity...ukmet was taking a southerly route with td10, any updates on its modeling?

[drezee]

12z HWRF with a wildly different solution: Category 5 in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091712/hwrf_mslp_uv850_10L_43.png

Not quite a 5...but that would be an unmitigated disaster! Either you plow into DR....or you have a Cat 4 heading toward the highest ocean heat content in the Western Hemisphere. Hard no on either...

The image says 139.8 knots, which is category 5
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Those are 850mb winds....not surface...basically gusts
Surface winds are below:

[floridasun78]

my weatherman here in miami say their front that may save our day on east coast front expect be east coast by time maybe hurr be close too bahama

[MetroMike]

Not quite a 5...but that would be an unmitigated disaster! Either you plow into DR....or you have a Cat 4 heading toward the highest ocean heat content in the Western Hemisphere. Hard no on either...

The image says 139.8 knots, which is category 5
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Those are 850mb winds....not surface...basically gusts
Surface winds are below:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091712/hwrf_mslp_wind_10L_43.png

Still looks formidable.

[LarryWx]

hwrf goes bonkers with intensity and keeps it south even though the ridge is eroding, sure.

well there is a small weakness in the 500mb heights but just like the EURO ensembles a lot continue west..

Also check the 200 mb steering for the HWRF> your answer lies with that ridge that will almost certainly exist once humberto pulls out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=120

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2019091712/hwrf-p_uv200_10L_25.png

I noticed the ridging in the euro at 120h and then it seems to weaken...hwrf was very god with dorian intensity...ukmet was taking a southerly route with td10, any updates on its modeling?

The 12Z UKMET is far to the NE of the 0Z/fish storm:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 12.9N 44.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 14.1N 46.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 14.9N 48.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.8N 50.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 16.7N 53.7W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 17.8N 56.5W 1003 42
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 18.8N 59.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 20.6N 62.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 22.7N 64.4W 1007 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 25.0N 65.0W 1005 36
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 27.4N 64.2W 996 49
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 30.1N 62.0W 974 79
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 34.0N 60.1W 958 85

[LarryWx]

The 18Z ICON 120 implies a recurve well E of the CONUS based on comparing to the 12Z run. Also, look at the 1007 low that is on its heels at the LAs and is from the wave further out.

[Aric Dunn]

The 18Z ICON 120 implies a recurve well E of the CONUS based on comparing to the 12Z run. Also, look at the 1007 low that is on its heels at the LAs and is from the wave further out.

It all seems to be coming down to this 200 to 300 mb tutt and ridge placement. the 18z ICON pushes the high south into the north Carrib which allows td10 move wnw to nw and never turns back to west like EURO ensembles and HWRF.

It remains to be seen if those features will even exist to be able to keep this on a nw path. the 500 up to 300 mb ridging builds is quite extensive..

I would not get caught up with any OUT to sea solution by any means yet.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 718&fh=120



VS the HWRF look how much farther north that high is.






SAME applies to the GFS that high is anchored over the NE Carrib early on then moves but is too late for the GFS . nothing can go through it .. so it goes around it.

[SconnieCane]

12z HWRF with a wildly different solution: Category 5 in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091712/hwrf_mslp_uv850_10L_43.png

Can always count on that model to bring the pain. Some of its Sim. IR products from a few days ago are uncanny looking at Humberto's presentation now, and it sniffed out Dorian and last year Michael ahead of everything else, but when you turn every storm into a monster hurricane I guess you're bound to be right once in awhile.

[AutoPenalti]

my weatherman here in miami say their front that may save our day on east coast front expect be east coast by time maybe hurr be close too bahama

Would not be surprised, but it will be all about timing.

[AxaltaRacing24]

my weatherman here in miami say their front that may save our day on east coast front expect be east coast by time maybe hurr be close too bahama

Would not be surprised, but it will be all about timing.

Yep. We’ve seen “certain” recurves and/or “certain” landfalls become the exact opposite before.

[gatorcane]

Big recurve on the 18Z GFS even with a weak storm. Humberto left too much of a weakness. Any CONUS threats watch the Western Caribbean or GOM.

[AtlanticWind]

Big recurve on the 18Z GFS even with a weak storm. Humberto left too much of a weakness. Any CONUS threats watch the Western Caribbean or GOM.

Too early to say that for sure I think,
as we have some huge model swings this year.
Also 12z HWRF had it powerful storm using west.

[Aric Dunn]

Big recurve on the 18Z GFS even with a weak storm. Humberto left too much of a weakness. Any CONUS threats watch the Western Caribbean or GOM.

Too early to say that for sure I think,
as we have some huge model swings this year.

if any of the EURO ensembles and the HWRF are to be believed.. then a track south of Hati and CUBA before turning is still just as possible. all past 5 days.

[CyclonicFury]

It's another battle between the statistical guidance and dynamical guidance as we often see in the Atlantic MDR. Statistical guidance steadily deepens this system while the global models keep it weak or dissipate it. The statistical guidance won with Dorian but it seems like the global models win in this scenario more often. We'll see.

[Nimbus]

Big recurve on the 18Z GFS even with a weak storm. Humberto left too much of a weakness. Any CONUS threats watch the Western Caribbean or GOM.

Too early to say that for sure I think,
as we have some huge model swings this year.
Also 12z HWRF had it powerful storm using west.

18Z HWRF initializes with a much weaker storm further north through 57 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z HWRF is coming in weaker and further North. If I was a betting man the odds would definitely favor a recurve versus a more continued west motion. Time will tell.