ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Only model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12z guidance:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The overnight ECMWF run (00z) did close off a circulation with eventual landfall near Tampico, Mexico. See high-resolution ECMWF animated gif below (animation starts on Monday, system struggles to escape coast before then):
GFS 00z run had a very similar evolution:
GFS 00z run had a very similar evolution:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
there are a lot of EUro members more offshore. and some take it to hurricane strength.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Cmc with euro idea
Cmc on board with euro, riding it up Texas coast as a weak prob trop storm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60112&fh=6
Cmc on board with euro, riding it up Texas coast as a weak prob trop storm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60112&fh=6
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12z ECMWF develops 91L and rounds the coast to be in Louisiana at 144 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Notice how it becomes weaker as it tracks farther north into Texas and Louisiana. Strong wind shear is expected over the northern Gulf, which will mainly lead to a heavy rainfall threat across these areas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow:
Notice how it becomes weaker as it tracks farther north into Texas and Louisiana. Strong wind shear is expected over the northern Gulf, which will mainly lead to a heavy rainfall threat across these areas.
Looks like it would be more of a rainmaker for Louisiana compared to Texas? Texas looks to be on the dry side of the storm.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Cpv17 wrote:South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow:
Notice how it becomes weaker as it tracks farther north into Texas and Louisiana. Strong wind shear is expected over the northern Gulf, which will mainly lead to a heavy rainfall threat across these areas.
Looks like it would be more of a rainmaker for Louisiana compared to Texas? Texas looks to be on the dry side of the storm.
That's what you would normally expected, but that's not the case this time around. An approaching trough over the SW US will help to transport tropical moisture northward across Texas as the disturbance moves up the coast of Mexico. In fact, Texas might see more rain than Louisiana from this system.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
GFS which was bullish over the EPAC in regards to development from this CAG continues to not show much if any development. What gives with this model?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Storm track was headed inland near Tampico earlier and now moisture forecast to be pulled north by a digging cold front.
At least the high shear forecast is positive for hindering development into something Wxman57 needs to report.
At least the high shear forecast is positive for hindering development into something Wxman57 needs to report.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Nimbus wrote:Storm track was headed inland near Tampico earlier and now moisture forecast to be pulled north by a digging cold front.
At least the high shear forecast is positive for hindering development into something Wxman57 needs to report.
Wxman57 had a surgical procedure the day before yesterday. I believe he faces another surgery within 10 days. Rest assured he will return soon!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
I know it’s the nam and it sucks but it’s interesting
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0212&fh=84
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0212&fh=84
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
HWRF likes Cocodrie area around 90 hours as a somewhat formidable 990mb system with the bulk of the rain stretched out north. Looks faster and has a more random track
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0300&fh=90
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0300&fh=90
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
HWRF (based on latest 0Z from last night) is continuing to trend further south and stronger, depicting 991mb in 54 hours (from last night) to the southeast of Brownsville. Will be curious to see how it's 12Z looks.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Does anyone recall at what time the HWRF and HMON 12Z runs finally come out?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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